"Brakeman" to push expansion?

Although France was the main brake on EU enlargement in previous years, it is encouraging that the Western Balkans is among the priorities of the French presidency of the Union in the next six months.

"Vijesti" interlocutors also assess that Montenegro and Serbia are in a better position, while North Macedonia and Albania are still "stuck" in the waiting room.

On January 1, France took over the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU from Slovenia, and among its priorities will be building a stronger and more sovereign EU, defending the rule of law and European values, and strengthening strategic autonomy. The Western Balkans and the French president should be on the agenda of Paris Emanuel Macron he announced earlier, presenting the priorities, that a conference on the Western Balkans, "which is more than a neighbor, because it is located in the heart of Europe", will be organized in June.

"Vijesti" interlocutors agree that France no longer has a rigid stance when it comes to enlargement policy, but they believe that the presidential elections in that country in April could lead to Macron not being able to fully devote himself to European affairs, at least in the first part of the French Presidency.

Senior researcher at the Belgrade Center for European Policies (CEP) Strahinja Subotic says that France's attitudes towards the enlargement policy in 2018 and 2019 were rigid, that it can even be said that they were not practically justified, because they were based on the fear that there could be an institutional blockade.

"At least that's how it was justified at the time, while in reality this is not the case, because the opening of negotiations with North Macedonia and Albania was supposed to be one of many steps. Leaving that aside, we must bear in mind that today France no longer has that rigid attitude".

Macron, right after he was elected as the French president in 2017, said that the enlargement of the EU is impossible without internal reforms in the European institutions. In October 2019, he prevented the opening of accession negotiations between the EU and North Macedonia and Albania. It was a key moment for the EU, given that North Macedonia had already resolved a bilateral dispute with neighboring Greece and as a result changed the name of the country.

Macron asked for a change of attitude towards the accession process and this was the reason why the European Commission (EC) adopted a new revised methodology for membership negotiations in February 2020.

Subotić says that there is now a certain amount of optimism when it comes to the French presidency of the Council of the EU and that it is even surprising that France managed to single out the Western Balkans in its program in the sense that it will hold the Summit.

"These summits are significant because they represent an opportunity to send a stronger political message as to whether and to what extent the EU is satisfied with the current reform processes at the Central Bank, and at the same time a message is sent to the citizens that the EU is there for them, so that the policy of enlargement and future membership".

He said that he would like the Summit to take a step forward compared to other summits and provide concrete recommendations or opinions on the basis of which civil society can implement its ideas that should be to speed up the accession process, and of course to encourage leaders to engage more strongly in reforms.

"By, for example, the leaders will be enabled for institutional involvement in various stages before membership itself, and it would be good if France managed to approve the other member states by then to open the structural funds for the WB states."

Political analyst and journalist from Skopje Aleksandar Srbinovski believes that the process of expansion to the WB countries is really complicated.

"I think that little of that will be achieved on the regional level so that the countries of the West Bank accelerate their path to the EU. I draw this statement from the Macedonian example, because although we have accomplished a lot in order to achieve this goal, we are still stuck in the same waiting room as in previous years".

Vice President of GP URA Jovana Marović reminds that when presenting the priorities of the French presidency, Macron insisted on the special responsibility that the EU has towards the countries of the region.

"France's first priority is to strengthen the Union itself, which President Macron has insisted on throughout his mandate. At first glance, it is clear that these are extremely serious goals, especially for the short period of six months that the presidency lasts, which is insufficient for a more significant agenda. However, it is important for the Western Balkans that it is among the priorities of the presidency and that it will be the focus of numerous events, meetings and summits that French officials will initiate in the coming period. It is up to the region to draw attention to itself with some more serious cuts, and each of the countries knows what it should do in that regard."

France, as he adds, was one of the brakes on the enlargement process precisely with the explanation that "the Union must be stronger in order to be bigger".

"But placing these two processes on the same level may symbolically mean that they will go hand in hand in the future, as has been repeatedly pointed out from the region itself. The strengthening of democracy at all levels must go 'hand in hand' and that is the only way for the EU's transformative power to survive, as well as for its position as a global player".

Political analyst from Skopje Siniša Pekevski does not expect the EU's position regarding the Western Balkans to change.

"The EU has its own problems that it will focus on, and I think that the WB will be in the background. France is a great friend of Bulgaria and in this respect I don't think anything will change unless S. Macedonia accepts the irrational conditions set by Bulgaria in order to start negotiations for joining the EU. In the end, I think that the EU is not yet ready for enlargement until it is reformed internally".

North Macedonia and Albania will still wait

Subotić believes that S. Macedonia and Albania will still wait for the opening of negotiations.

"Yes, they will wait at least half a year for the opening of negotiations, because, at least that was the practice, that intergovernmental conferences can be held only twice a year, where they talk about opening negotiations, opening clusters, closing chapters, etc. These dates are always important, whether it is the middle of the year or the end of the year. Bearing in mind that there are no indications that Bulgaria will change its mind, at least not at this moment, therefore we cannot expect any progress to be made before the summer".

However, as he adds, given that political relations are changing in Bulgaria with the arrival of new, fresher political forces, there is room for France, as a country that focuses more strongly on ZB, to try to pressure the elites in Bulgaria to change their minds.

"It is not significant that it happened only because of S. Macedonia and Albania, but also because of Serbia and Montenegro, in general the entire ZB, for the reason that by blocking those who most deserve to make a breakthrough with them, reform processes in other countries are somehow discouraged states ZB. Their leaders will say: look, North Macedonia used to be Macedonia, now it is North Macedonia. So, she solved the identity issue as the biggest demand at that time and despite that they failed to make a step towards the EU".

Srbinovski expects that 2022 could be better, given that there seems to be hope in Brussels and other European capitals that the small countries of the Western Balkans can at least open accession negotiations.

"Nevertheless, if the story of S. Macedonia's path to membership in Western institutions has taught us anything, it is that a new obstacle can suddenly appear - in the form of another EU member state with objections or sudden elections somewhere - which prevents us from saying with certainty how that door from the waiting room to the long road to EU membership will be opened next year or at least in the next six months when France chairs the Council of the EU".

He believes that for the first half of 2022, the term "could" is still more credible than "should" when it comes to the prospects of the Central Bank on the way to the EU.

Bad signals are also coming from the BiH-Croatia route

Srbinovski warns that bad signals are also coming from the BiH-Croatia relationship, where Zagreb is now announcing that BiH could be blocked according to the Bulgarian recipe, if it does not fulfill Zagreb's desire to accept Croats from BiH as a constituent nation.

"On the other hand, Montenegro and Serbia are in a better position, because Brussels united Serbia and Montenegro in negotiations with the EU. So now it's a dead race as to who will join the Union first, if it happens to be a package of Albania and S. Macedonia or Serbia and Montenegro".

According to him, when it comes to S. Macedonia, this time things are more complicated than in 2019, because the dispute with Bulgaria requires great sacrifices on both sides to be resolved.

"But, on the other hand, President Macron, in complete contrast to three years ago, has personally engaged to help the authorities of Skopje and is pressuring Sofia to meet somewhere (in popular terms) halfway. According to the publications of a couple of media from Brussels, Macron is now pressuring the authorities of both Balkan countries that have new mandates at the same time (in Bulgaria Kirill Petkov and in S. Macedonia Dimitar Kovachevski) who now have a really difficult job ahead of them".

Pekevski believes that Albania will open negotiations first, and that will be in the next year, while S. Macedonia, if it resolves its dispute with Bulgaria, can start negotiations in a year or two.

"In any case, I expect that the path of both countries will diverge and that Albania will start negotiations earlier".

According to him, the most important thing in this respect and what both countries have to work on is solving the problem of high corruption rate and political instability.

"Both countries must show readiness not only declaratively for the fight against corruption, but also to act on the ground".

It is up to the region to draw attention to itself with some more serious cuts, and each of the states knows what it should do in that regard," says Jovana Marović.

If Macron wins the election, he will engage more strongly

When asked how much the campaign for the presidential elections in France will affect the enlargement process, Subotic answers that the election periods will definitely eat up a significant amount of time and thus Macron will not be able to devote himself to European affairs to the same extent as if there were no elections.

"The elections in France are the most significant at the European level this year, because Macron's potential loss would mean a step into a new phase of the EU that would introduce a huge amount of unpredictability, given that his competitors are usually right-wing. If he wins, considering that he will fight in April, we can expect a stronger influence of Macron from April to June".

During that period, he adds, Macron can come forward with his ideas more forcefully and without any problems and demand their implementation.

"Therefore, it is good that the WB summit is at the end of France's mandate, because the enlargement policy is generally unpopular among the member states, and therefore also among the skeptical French. Therefore, given that Macron will not have that pressure on the public after the election, it is good that he can approach the enlargement policy at the end of the French mandate without these restrictions and try to make some progress that he might not have been able to make in the event that the summit had been held. at the beginning of the year".

Srbinovski says that when it comes to diplomacy, France has a long tradition of shaping the international scene independently of domestic events.

"What worries me is that President Macron will basically not talk much about EU expansion, because as he has noted many times, he cannot explain to his voters why some Balkan countries would enter the EU if they are not ready for that act. This would mean that if Macron's party or his opponents from the right-wing party of Le Pen won the elections, everyone would certainly be skeptical about the enlargement, with the fact that the ZB would have more chances to enter the EU if the Republican party won again".

Pekevski believes that the elections in France are not a problem for enlargement, but that problems exist within the EU.

"The EU must reform internally because we see that there are serious problems related to Poland and Hungary that the EU must solve first, then the problem that the EU has with Russia is in the first place and the focus will be there".

Jovana Marović says that it is unfavorable for the presidency that it "overlaps" with the presidential election campaign, but that there have been more positive signals from France lately.

"It is to be expected that the climate is changing and that with the joint efforts (of the EU, its member states, and the CIS countries) we will soon achieve a significant degree of democratization".