Are those who never left coming back?

The entry of part of the government into political arrangements with the opposition Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) would represent a great risk because that party has not been significantly weakened after the loss of thirty years of power, nor have its bad practices been eradicated.

Political analyst and former MP Srđan Perić said that the DPS, at a time when the "overthrow" of the Government is on the horizon due to disagreements within the parliamentary majority, is in a significantly more active position than 10 days ago, when the ruling coalition "Black on White" ( CnB) offered all entities in the Assembly the formation of a minority government.

Milo Đukanović's party thus, according to him, came from the position of an absolutely undesirable partner to the point where crucial decisions for the functioning of the community could depend on its votes.

"Entering into an arrangement in which you govern by having your legislative initiatives supported by DPS deputies would have a huge political risk on several levels for whoever enters into it. On a perceptive - but also essential level - the strategy and rhetoric in relation to to what we could hear in the election campaign. On the operational side, in order to remove the bad practices of the previous government in this way, you need an extremely coordinated, first of all, a legal team with enormous knowledge, and then really professional people with multi-layered skills who know system of public administration and who know how to design and implement real reforms. And large systems are filled with such personnel, and our community is in a very big deficit," Perić told "Vijesti".

Political analyst from Belgrade, Đorđe Vukadinović, warns that the entry of a part of the government into any combination with the DPS, which has the most deputies in the parliament (30), would be dangerous at this moment. "It seems to me that this arrangement would be risky, and essentially, in some way, it would mean betraying the will of the voters, because Đukanović's DPS is neither small nor minority," he points out for "Vijesti".

The CnB coalition offered last week to all MPs to form a minority government without the DPS and the ruling Democratic Front (DF).

In order for this to happen, on February 4, at the request of the CnB and the opposition, there will be a vote of no confidence in the government of Prime Minister Zdravko Krivokapić. That proposal currently has the sure support of at least 44 MPs, although 41 is enough.

An initiative that would imply parliamentary support for a minority government by the DPS or participation in it does not have the support of a large part of the parliamentary majority, which claims that the election of such a government would represent giving "artificial respiration" and a shortcut for that party's return to power.

Some entities, such as the Socialist People's Party (SNP), have yet to explicitly decide on this offer, while others, such as the DF, are seeking the formation of a technical government, which would consist of a parliamentary majority and minority parties.

GP URA claims that the DPS will not be part of the minority government, that "we must not be prisoners of fear" of the return of the DPS to power, and that there is nothing to gain from that.

On the other hand, the DPS states that they will make a statement about the minority government model when the time comes, and they say that in the next 14 months it will be the strongest party and the one that decides in power.

"And then we will treat everyone who is our traditional, but also potential partners, exactly the way they treated us and, in particular, how they will treat us from now on," said the DPS deputy two days ago , Nikola Rakočević.

The party did not answer "Vijesti" whether it would be acceptable for them to support the minority government without participating in it.

The fear of the "resurrection" of the DPS drew parallels with the return of the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) of Slobodan Milošević to power in that country.

After Milošević's ouster from power on October 5, 2000, that party supported the minority government of Vojislav Koštunica in March 2004, and in 2008 became part of the government of Mirko Cvetković.

Vukadinović says that between the positions of SPS after 2000 and DPS after the election on August 30, 2020, there are certain similarities, but also big differences.

"The first and biggest difference is that the SPS lost, but did not 'fall' in the elections, but in a large popular protest on the occasion of the elections on October 5. Milosevic lost the presidential elections from Kostunica quite convincingly, so because of his non-recognition of the results, those protests, in which both Milošević and the SPS 'fell'. On the other hand, this did not happen in Montenegro. There were no presidential elections, Đukanović was not formally delegitimized, and there were no protests because he and the DPS, even reluctantly, accepted the outcome of the election. This makes the situation both easier and more complicated. It is complicated, first of all, because there was not a sharp enough cut that there was in Serbia. The SPS returned to power through the back door without Milošević, while Đukanović is formally part of the government because he holds the office of president, and now, through the support of the minority government, he would essentially return - without actually ever leaving," emphasizes Vukadinović.

Perić states that DPS, thanks to the behavior of the current government, is not marginalized, and that the practices it established have not been dismantled, but have been embraced in many fields.

"From party framing at all levels, all the way to exclusivity and verbal attacks on dissenters," he underlines.

With the announcement of the formation of a minority government, the talk about Djukanović's potential resignation from the DPS leadership is getting louder.

"Vijesti" wrote on several occasions that part of the ruling parties - in order to support the minority government - asked the international community for firm guarantees that Djukanovic will retire politically.

Vice Prime Minister and leader of the URA GP, Dritan Abazović announced at the end of last year that he is convinced that Đukanović is going, and that the question of whether it will happen in the first quarter of this year or later is less important. The DPS leader did not comment on those ratings, but before that he announced immediate elections for the head of the party this year.

The "black list" of the State Department, which is expected to be published, and on which some officials of that party could be found, could also contribute to the changes in the DPS.

Vukadinović estimates that the imminent departure of Đukanović would somewhat facilitate the resolution of the government crisis in Montenegro, but that the question is how much his withdrawal would weaken the DPS.

"Probably to some extent, but I can't claim that it would be drastic. This transition would be really facilitated in that situation. It would relax the position of the DPS in some other possible arrangements regarding the government and expand their coalition capacity," he explains. .

Perić, on the other hand, says that he is convinced that Đukanović - which, according to him, is confirmed by the recent statements of DPS officials - has no intention of retiring from politics.

In the end, he adds, he himself has stated several times, predicting that he will return to power.

"On several occasions, it has been shown that he knows how to skillfully defend his position. Let's recall the stories that he will not run for president in 2018 due to certain pressures. Let's then recall the theses about his withdrawal that we have been hearing for almost twenty years, with almost the same explanations," he notes. interlocutor, adding that Đukanović's position will be weakened "only when we let the principles of democracy take root".

"And democracy is the rule of the majority, which is not established by exclusivity, but through dialogue in which you will respect the other side and in which each side will make a concession so that the community is functional, so that the foreign policy position of the state is not constantly violated and so that we can finally hear each other without difficult and dehumanizing words and media strategies, which, unfortunately, many are prone to," concludes Perić.

Perić: Only DPS can reform itself

When asked whether the announced possible withdrawal of Đukanović and the potential departure of some other DPS cadres compromised by scandals can really be enough to state that the party has "purified itself", or whether much more needs to be done, Perić replies that he does not know why we would were obsessed with reforming the DPS.

"If they want to enter that process, they can do it exclusively by themselves, because any pressure from other political subjects will certainly trigger internal defense mechanisms in which cadres who are afraid of judicial sanctions, as a rule, become more aggressive in intra-party - if not fights, and lobbying. In that case, we should turn into supporters in potential intra-party exchanges and hope for the best outcome - but then what is the goal and point of the election? DPS reform? We should get rid of unrealistic strategies. You know, that it's like in your life - it turns out that we don't have enough of our own problems in the community, but we still need to 'purify' the DPS...", he points out.