After the surprising formation of the government in Cetinje without the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), the public got the impression that the power of the party is weakening Milo Đukanović, however, analysts believe that it is coming back into play at the state level after the collapse of the ruling majority and the fall of the Government Zdravka Krivokapića.
Analyst and journalist Željko Pantelić told "Vijesti" that Cetinje, like Herceg Novi, cannot be a parameter for reading political relations in Montenegro due to the specific structure of the voting body and political relations.
"What is valid in Cetinje is not valid at the national level, so I would not draw the conclusion that the DPS is weakening because it failed to persuade the SDP to form a coalition in the capital," Pantelić said.
Marko Pejović from the Center for Democracy and Human Rights (CEDEM), states that the DPS, after being out of power for 14 months, is returning to the game and gaining power thanks to the lack of dialogue and non-cooperation of the three winning coalitions as of August 30, 2020.
"On the other hand, the absence of the formation of a coalition in Cetinje does not necessarily imply a decline in power at the national level, especially if we take into account the negotiations that are currently being conducted regarding the formation of a new government, which are particularly interesting from the aspect of power," said Pejović. News".
By the election of the councilor of the Old Guard of the Liberal Alliance (SG LSCG) Milena Vujacic for the president of the Assembly of the capital Cetinje, on February 14, DPS was sent to the opposition after 17 years in power in that local administration. DPS won 14 mandates in the local elections, SDP eight, the local party Stara garda LSCG three, the Civic Movement URA four, the Democrats three and the Social Democrats-Liberal Party coalition one mandate.
DPS and the Social Democratic Party (SDP), which individually won the most votes, did not reach an agreement on the formation of the government in Cetinje. The SDP rejected the DPS's offer for a two-year "rotating" model for the mayor and his deputies, and that the position of president of the capital's Assembly belongs to the DPS for all four years.
Councilors of the Civic Movement URA and Democratic Montenegro voted for the election of the president of the Cetinje Parliament and announced the formation of a new majority. The DPS evaluated this as a betrayal of the SDP, recalling the events in Cetinje during the enthronement of the Metropolitan of the Montenegrin-Literal Serbian Orthodox Church. Joanikia. The SDP replied that the "biggest betrayal" was the 40 million debt and the people who moved away because of the DPS policy.
The SDP deputy did not agree with her party's decision at the local level Draginja Vuksanović Stanković.
"These are not belvedere values and goals. Let no one expect that I will join hands together with those who make Kidd in Montenegro", said Vuksanović Stanković.
Supporters and officials of DPS and SDP were on one side during the protest and blockade of the approach to Cetinje in an attempt to prevent the enthronement of Metropolitan Joaniki in the Cetinje monastery at the beginning of September last year. On the other side were the Democrats and the URA, who, from the positions of government at the state level, had control over the security forces, which enabled the enthronement with the use of tear gas.
Part of the public is surprised by the loss of DPS power in Cetinje, where that party, as strongly pro-Montenegro and anti-Serb, has a firm foothold, despite poor results in the field of economic and social policy and the fact that it is one of the poorer municipalities in Montenegro.
While the government is being formed in Cetinje, negotiations are underway at the state level on the formation of a minority government proposed by the Black and White coalition (Civil Movement URA and CIVIS), as a way to resolve the government crisis that in the first week of February resulted in a vote of no confidence in the Government and the dismissal of the president Assembly.
Good tactic - "Raško polished, Draginja's political amazon"
Pantelić explains that SDP realized that distancing itself from DPS is necessary if they want to survive as a party.
He believes that it is a very intelligent tactic that the leader of the party Rasko Konjević be the fine, polished, prudent face of SDP, and Draginja Vuksanović Stanković some kind of Montenegrin political amazon, with the aim of eroding the electorate of DPS and GP URA.
"In the previous 20 years, DPS shaped a part of the electorate according to its own measure, based on the anti-Serb narrative 'tout court'. They were so successful in that business that now, even if they wanted to, they cannot change themselves because a new DPS would be formed to take their place. The establishment of various associations, from so-called civil to militant, aims to keep the DPS base together. The DPS will weaken significantly only if a party appears on the horizon that will be more credible as Turbo Montenegrin and anti-Serb," Pantelić assessed.
He adds that in Montenegro there are two ossified blocs that can hardly evolve in the foreseeable future.
"The problem is that they represent, together, the majority of the citizens of Montenegro and it is completely irrelevant whether they will vote for the DPS on one side, or the Democratic Front on the other," says Pantelić.
Marko Pejović states that in Montenegro, due to the political crisis and specific political circumstances, different political games are being played at different levels and by all political entities.
In it, he adds, the least consideration is given to the public interest, but only the implementation of ideas that would result in the strengthening of ratings and the acquisition of a new electorate to meet early parliamentary and local elections.
"Coalitioning with DPS does not represent an expected and successful move for any political entity, considering that DPS lost significant voter support in the last parliamentary elections, and that party is still seen as the main opponent on the political scene. However, after being out of power for 14 months, they are back in the game and gaining power thanks to the lack of dialogue and non-cooperation of the three winning coalitions since August 30," says Pejović.
According to him, the provision of support for the formation of a new government despite the fact that they will not participate in it is very indicative and threefold - they strengthen their actions despite the fact that their support is continuously weakening, they realize their ideology, that is, they fulfill their promises to their electorate, and finally they strengthen its future coalition capacity.
He believes that the Cetinje outcome will in no way affect the reduction of the influence of the DPS when it comes to the formation of a minority government, considering the number of their deputies in the parliament.
"On the contrary, the absence of DPS support for the formation of a new government would absolutely mean that it will not even happen and that the elections are certain. In addition, their influence will be decisive because the DPS MPs would constitute a significant majority if we are talking about the new parliamentary majority. Therefore, the influence on the functioning of the executive power, decision-making and legal solutions will be almost in the hands of the DPS if we are talking about a potentially new parliamentary majority", explains Pejović.
Without the SNP, the minority government loses its meaning
Pantelić believes that a minority government without the Socialist People's Party (SNP) loses its meaning, or what the French would say "raison d'etre".
He states that the key question for the formation of the government is whether he is the leader of the SNP Vladimir Jokovic ready to invest the future of the party to try to open a better way for Montenegro.
"I am convinced that Joković and the leadership of the SNP would be happy to pay that price if there was a guarantee or at least a high probability that the government with GP URA and minorities would bring that much-desired turn towards a truly civil society in which everyone would be equal, and the rule of law functioned. However, the chances of that happening are slim. To be clear, the SNP's agreement to a minority government with the external support of the DPS looks like a kamikaze move or, at best, an attempt to buy a lottery ticket with the last euro in your pocket, hoping for a million euro premium," says Pantelić.
Đukanović will not voluntarily spend his retirement days "crunching his savings"
Commenting on the possibility and unofficial announcements that the president of the country and DPS leader Milo Đukanović will retire from political life, Pantelić says that no European and global politician "from the family to which the president of Montenegro belongs" has voluntarily decided to spend his retirement days in some fiscal paradise crunching the “savings”.
"Even those who formally stepped down from power and left the country, continued, as long as they had power, money or popular support, to influence political trends. The best scenario would be Croatia with Ivo Sanader, but I'm afraid they don't have Jadranka Kosor in the DPS, and Tonči Petković in the Montenegrin prosecutor's office," says Pantelić.
Marko Pejović states that personnel changes would be an inevitable consequence of the agreement of the new parliamentary majority, that is, the minority government.
"The 'Black and White' coalition based its program on the fight against the DPS, and their decision to ask the DPS for support now would mean that they have certain guarantees that would result in the withdrawal of Đukanović and certain long-term officials of the DPS . Otherwise, one could speak of an ill-considered decision of this coalition, despite the fact that further remaining in the parliamentary majority from August 30 and in the Government of Krivokapić would mean an additional deepening of the institutional and political crisis. "Certainly, Đukanović is a very experienced politician and someone who would not retire in the way represented by the representatives of the URA civil movement, but will carefully choose the moment as the reason he would use for his withdrawal," says Pejović.
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