The mutual stipulations of the parties negotiating the formation of a minority government are a sign that it cannot be stable and that the political actors who will eventually form it will find it difficult to find a common language on key issues.
This was stated by the interlocutors of "Vijesti", commenting on the fact that the talks on the new executive power are taking place in an atmosphere of mistrust and fighting for positions, not resulting in an agreement even two and a half months after the "overthrow" of the Government Zdravka Krivokapića, i.e. a month and a half after he became the leader of the Citizens' Movement (GP) URA Dritan Abazovic received from the president of the state Milo Đukanović the mandate for the composition of the cabinet.
Civic activist Stefan Djukic, says that the length of the negotiations on the government shows that the main problem in connection with the constitution of any level of government in Montenegro is the division of the spoils.
According to him, this is the only mode in which the parties think and the only thing that truly interests them.
"When the 'fall' of the outgoing government was announced, the protests of the current ministers were answered that they 'don't hold on to the armchairs so tightly', and now we see that the distribution of the armchairs is the only essential issue, no matter how much you call something European, Euro-Atlantic, progressive, conciliatory ... The message to the public is very simple - parties and politicians represent a self-centered class that lives at the expense of all citizens and whose only interest is ensuring economic well-being for party members and, above all, the leadership. In the period of major fires in the country, in which we are affected by the economic crisis due to the war in Ukraine, we have a blockade of almost all institutions because the question is which party will have how many ministers, how many state secretaries and how many directors of public companies", Đukić emphasized to "Vijesti".
Novinar Nikola Markovic, states that the conditions of potential future partners in the minority government confirm his hypothesis that it cannot be stable.
"Just as Krivokapić's government was not stable because of the methods and problems it had during its formation, I believe it will be the same with Abazović's government. Krivokapić's Government lasted as long as Abazović wanted it, and Abazović's will last as long as the leader of the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) Đukanović wanted it. The circle is closed, and the social energy it produced on August 30, 2020 was not used for reforms," he points out for "Vijesti".
Although GP URA announces from week to week that they are within reach of an agreement on the government, it has not yet been reached because DPS demands that its former coalition partners - the Social Democrats (SD) and the Social Democratic Party (SDP) - be in it, which the Socialist People's Party opposes. (SNP).
That party made the start of negotiations on the minority cabinet conditional on the non-entry of DPS, SD and SDP into it.
DPS previously announced parliamentary support for the government, without participating in it.
The Main Committee of the SNP is waiting again
However, as "Vijesti" previously wrote, referring to sources from the SNP, the party Vladimir Joković she could accept talks about SDP coming into power, because that party has been in the opposition for several years, unlike SD, which has only been in the opposition benches for a year and a half.
The SNP should decide tomorrow, at the session of the Main Board (GO), whether it is acceptable for the SDP to be part of Abazović's cabinet.
If an agreement is reached on the formation of the government, as "Vijesti" previously announced, six ministries should belong to the SNP, and the departments of foreign affairs and defense to the SDP.
In the meantime, GP URA announces the outcome of the negotiations for this week, stating that the political and programmatic principles of the cabinet have been agreed, and that it will include the SDP, but not the SD.
Executive Director of GP URA, Zoran Mikić, said that Abazović "will submit a request for convening a parliamentary session (where the government would be elected) before the Orthodox Easter, and announce to the public the composition of the new government".
As the negotiations progress, so does the possible number of government ministries. Although it was mentioned until a few days ago that the future cabinet should have 18 departments, Mikić announced that there will be 20, and that the government will probably have three vice presidents.
Assessing that the current situation is unsustainable, Marković says that he thinks that the formation of a minority government will deepen the political crisis, as it will further extremize the political poles.
He claims that instead of civil reconciliation and easing of tensions, a completely opposite process is taking place, which is again channeled by the leader of the DPS.
"Political representatives who quarreled with each other, such as the Democratic Front (DF) and Democrats on one side, and GP URA and DPS on the other, will reconcile. In this way, the appearance is created that we are again divided on a national basis, although the essence of the new divisions is not in this, but in the relationship to the former regime. Also, the story that the minority government makes no sense without the Serbs, along with the insistence that the SNP be part of it, is an unsuccessful attempt to mask that the limiter of new divisions is the political revival of Đukanović, not religion and nations. That is why we have the opportunity to see that the idea of a minority government from national and religious positions is defended dominantly by Đukanović's followers", notes Marković.
Hardly until the number 49
Although the "Black on White" coalition (GP URA and CIVIS), which proposed a minority government, started negotiations on its formation with the aim of securing the support of at least 49 deputies - as many as are necessary for the election of the Supreme State Prosecutor, judges of the Constitutional Court and members of the Judicial council - it is almost certain that he will not secure that number of votes.
With the support of DPS, SDP, SNP and minority parties, "Black on White" can count on a maximum of 46 votes, which means that in order to unblock key judicial institutions, it will have to ask for the help of other parliamentary entities.
The SD said that they would certainly not support the government and the parliament, and that they rejected attempts to "compensate for the positions of 'depth' and 'width'" for not joining the government.
Đukić says that the fact that the SD will not be in the government does not necessarily mean that he could not vote for any solution. He adds that another issue is more important.
"If we get promises from the General Assembly of URA and SNP that we will finally witness justice in the legal system, that those suspected of corruption and many crimes in which state property is damaged will be held accountable, how will they vote for them from SD, and especially from DPS (although we have criminals from BS and other parties), if we are promised the final prosecution of people such as Ivan Brajović (SD) or Petar Ivanovic (DPS)? I cannot imagine that a common language can be found among these constituents on any of the key issues that we hoped to resolve on August 30".
The new government should make decisions on the most controversial political issues - such as holding a population census, signing contracts with religious communities and possibly joining regional initiatives - with a qualified majority, which is yet to be determined.
The SDP proposed that it be a two-thirds majority, which is unacceptable to the SNP.
Walk GP URA "on a tightrope"
Marković says that it seems to him that GP URA is walking a tightrope because he thinks that some important decisions - such as the signing of the fundamental contract with the Serbian Orthodox Church (SPC) - will be voted with the DF and the Democrats, and some others with the DPS and the SD -om.
"I don't believe it can be sustainable in the long term."
Although there are still many unknowns regarding the new executive power, Đukić believes that the system of partitocracy is the only thing that - if elected - will keep it alive.
"What will keep the government going is the awareness that it must take some time to soften the blow to the party's rating that it will suffer by entering the government. The task of the constituents is first of all to, from a position of power, and in the opportunity to employ their own people (even more than before) - to give the main say in which work will go into which hands and who will have the opportunity to receive what kind of contract in public procurement, and to in much greater access to the media, they show the voters that it is useful to vote for the party in power..."
Abazović previously announced that the new government will have several tasks, the most important of which is unblocking the country's European path.
What remained, he said, was the preparation of the summer tourist season, the electoral reform, the signing of the fundamental contract with the Serbian Orthodox Church...
The government should be appointed for a year, although voices are coming from some parties that it should last longer.
Đukić: Đukanović is telling the truth when he says that DPS will ask
Asked how he views the fact that neither GP URA nor SNP reacted to last week's indirect message from Đukanović that DPS will have a significant influence on the new government, Đukić replies that Abazović and Joković's party ignore such statements, hoping that some significant arrest will obscure that fact voters.
"Djukanovic's statement is, quite simply, the truth. In the beginning, we had, I'll say it freely, fantasies, that voting would be based on the principle of a buffet table - the majority for some laws would be given by the DPS, and for others by the DF and the Democrats. That's not how things work in much more advanced democracies, let alone here. When it finally became clear that the DF will not play a useful substitute, with the statement of Đukanović, it becomes clear that any reform laws, including those on the origin of property and lustration, will have to be written in a way that is acceptable to the DPS".
To the same question, Marković replied that the minority government will be an expression of the political will of the DPS and that it is only a technical question how that will will be realized.
"In this political stew that is simmering around the minority government, Đukanović is making the splash. Nobody thinks that the DPS leader will allow the minority government to strengthen GP URA, which is fighting for the same votes as DPS..."
Marković: DPS will control the government through minority parties
Commenting on the announcement that the extra-parliamentary Croatian Civic Initiative (HGI) could be part of the new government, Marković says that it is important for minority parties to be part of every government, because, according to him, this is the only way Montenegro can be built as a civil society.
"Political representatives of minorities quite naturally look out for their own interests. Let's not forget that most of them have been partners of DPS for decades and that they remained consistent in this even after August 30. They enter the government because of their national interests, and for Đukanović it is an ideal way to control the majority in the government. Because, let's not forget, the decisions of the government are also made by voting, and we already have the practice that it is not unusual if the prime minister is obstructed or too loud. Because Abazović should count on the fact that the same thing that he did to Krivokapić can happen to him as prime minister".
Respecting the idea that the government in every multicultural state must be inclusive for all nations, Đukić says, the question must also be asked - who has the right to represent a certain group of citizens.
"HGI achieved a very bad result in the elections, and we still remember the strange distribution of votes from the 2016 elections, when they allegedly voted for them in Andrijevica and Pljevlje, areas where there is no Croatian national minority. Just as it is considered necessary for the Bosniak Party (BS) to be in the government - that the Justice and Reconciliation Party (SPP), the coalition partner of GP URA, is not enough, because BS has a real basis in the electorate - so we cannot say that HGI has a basis in any electorate, and their possible inclusion is another indicator of the fact that this government does not respond to the voting will of the citizens".
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