The sanctions imposed on Russia by the European Union will have a hard impact on that country in the long term, the former Italian ambassador to NATO said in an interview with Vijesti. Stefano Stefanini.
He believes that the war in Ukraine at the moment is not a war threat that reaches the Western Balkans or the Mediterranean, but that it can increase unifying aspirations and tensions in all the countries of the Western Balkans, especially in those that are not yet members of the EU or NATO.
Stefanini was in Podgorica last week, as a special envoy of the Committee of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to promote the candidacy of the city of Rome to host the World Universal Exhibition EXPO - 2020.
"I expect Montenegro's support for Rome's candidacy," he said.
How much will the experience from Milan help Italy in the eventual organization of the World Exhibition in Rome?
One can certainly learn from previous experiences. But it will also be important to check what has changed in the world in fifteen years. I am thinking, for example, of the energy transition.
What is the added value of the World Exhibition, apart from economic and cultural?
EXPO exhibitions have been held since the end of the 19th century, that is, the beginning of the 20th century. Montenegro knows this very well because it participated for the first time in 1905. EXPO, in addition to being an economic and cultural event, actually implies the movement of people. These are people of different nationalities and origins who come to visit the EXPO and gather in one forum. This is what the English call "cross fertilization".
How much does the appearance of small countries, like Montenegro, contribute to their visibility on the economic and cultural map?
I think their contribution is huge because for big countries like, for example, China and the USA, or medium-sized countries, like for example France, EXPO is not necessary for promotion, while for small countries it can be a real opportunity to find their own visibility , its own brand.
Which of the Montenegrin officials did you meet and do you expect their support for Rome's candidacy?
I expect Montenegro's support for Rome's candidacy for two reasons: first, because Rome is an opportunity for Montenegro, both because of common interests in the Mediterranean and the Adriatic, and because of its geographical proximity, thanks to which Montenegro will be able to organize its participation much more easily than in a much more distant country .
In addition, due to the existence of particularly close and important bilateral relations between Italy and Montenegro, there is a certain logic in Montenegro's support for Rome's candidacy. The last, but not least, reason is the fact that the geographic proximity allows us to imagine that those who visit the exhibition in Rome, that is, those who come from other parts of the world, will visit EXPO Rome 2030, and then they will also visit Montenegro. We can therefore share tourist and cultural benefits, which would be much more difficult to imagine if EXPO 2030 is held, for example, in Korea or Saudi Arabia.
Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, officials have been warning of the danger of it spilling over into the Western Balkans, especially Montenegro and BiH, while there are also those who dissuade us - claiming that NATO is our friend and will not come. What is your position on this?
The war in Ukraine at the moment is not a war threat that reaches the Western Balkans or the Mediterranean, but it may increase the disunifying aspirations and tensions in all the countries of the Western Balkans, especially in those that are not yet members of the EU or NATO, such as Bosnia and Herzegovina. The fact that Montenegro is already a member of NATO, so it is still more advanced in the process of negotiations with the European Union (EU), certainly represents additional protection.
If there is ever a security threat, Montenegro, as a member of NATO, is perfectly safe, because it has the guarantee of Article 5, which, for example, Ukraine does not. Ukraine is not a member of NATO and therefore, with all the help it receives from NATO countries, it has no military defense because it does not have the protection of Article 5 of the NATO charter.
What can the Government of Montenegro do to prevent an attempt at destabilization that could be caused by Russia? Is membership in NATO enough of a deterrent or should we open our eyes wide to all forms of influence from Russia?
You have to open your eyes wide to all kinds of influence that is done by hidden means, so from propaganda based on social media that distorts information. You have to open your eyes wide to information based on fake news. When it comes to that, neither NATO nor the European Union can provide protection. Good journalism, good political leadership can provide protection.
What the Montenegrin Government can do, because it is ultimately the best defense against destabilizing attempts, is to maintain Montenegro's democratic course, freedom of information, free elections and democratically elected governments. Countries that closely adhere to this model show that they are able to resist any Russian influence. Examples that can be cited are the French or Italian elections.
How much does the fact that Russia is considered a traditional friend of Montenegro, that is, that some of the politicians, citizens, and the church are more favorable to Moscow than to Kiev, Washington, Brussels?
Russia must not be demonized. One must distinguish, on the one hand, the relationship to Putin's regime and towards the aggressive and violent policy that it implements, and on the other hand Russia, as a nation and as a great cultural country. Friends of Russia exist in Montenegro, but they also exist in Italy and other countries. They must be reasonable and understand the danger that Putin's regime represents, which is not compatible with a world where the law of the fittest does not apply. This should be especially important for a small country like Montenegro, because if we are moving towards a world where the strongest can easily impose their will with weapons and invasions, the smaller the country, the more it is exposed to this kind of risk.
The war in Ukraine also opened up the issue of Sweden and Finland joining NATO. Can we expect an accelerated procedure for their admission, especially after the announcement of some countries that they will veto it?
The war in Ukraine caused what is known in physics as the third law of motion, or Newton's law - For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. Thus, Sweden and Finland, always neutral countries, with a cooperative relationship with NATO, but without the intention of becoming part of it, at least until February 24, 2022, most likely, if their parliaments decide, they will apply for admission to NATO . We are talking about countries that already have all the necessary conditions, both political and military, for joining the Alliance, so the decision of the Atlantic Council, which must be made unanimously, is a fairly easy decision.
There is no fast-track procedure: there must be approval by the Atlantic Council and then approval by each parliament of the Alliance members. I would accept with a reservation the statements, the reasons for which are different from those of international politics, about vetoing, and I do not believe that Madrid will veto the entry of these two countries. There will probably be parliamentary debates in 30 countries, but this is a democracy.
Can BiH, due to the danger of spillover of the conflict, ask for accelerated accession to NATO and how realistic is that?
Bosnia and Herzegovina, which is part of the NATO program called - Partnership for Peace (PfP), must solve various political and military problems in order to start the path towards joining NATO. And in that case, I repeat, there is no "accelerated" procedure. There is an accession process and Bosnia, like every other country, like Montenegro did, has to do its homework.
Do you think that the sanctions on Russia introduced by the EU will have a deterrent effect, because so far there is no such impression?
EU sanctions have negative effects for everyone, especially for Russia, but also for the European Union itself. I believe that the negative effects for Russia will far exceed those suffered by the European Union, even when it comes to the package of sanctions that are being approved these days. This is an important step because it foresees an oil embargo and that European countries, much better than Russia, can bear the consequences for mutual cooperation. Sanctions will have a heavy impact on Russia in the medium and long term.
How would you evaluate regional relations in the Western Balkans, should we fear further strengthening of the right in this situation - which is the trend at the EU level?
The concept of left and right is very unclear today. If when you say "right" you mean the national populist movements that, until a few years ago, seemed to be on the rise everywhere in Europe - all over Europe, not just in the Western Balkans - I would say that the last elections in France and Slovenia showed the opposite. They are proof that the parties of the center and moderate orientations still maintain their position.
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