The signing of the Basic Agreement (BA) between the Government of Montenegro and the Serbian Orthodox Church (SPC) will help maintain tensions on the political scene, so the key question is which political actors are in the interest of the Prime Minister Dritan Abazović demolish now, and whom to do it later.
This is how "Vijesti" interlocutors look at this week's initialing of the TU, which resulted in a motion of no confidence in Abazović's government, which the deputies will decide on August 19.
The motion of no confidence was signed by 36 representatives of the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), Social Democratic Party (SDP), Social Democrats (SD), Liberal Party (LP) and Democratic Union of Albanians (DUA), but they need at least five more to overthrow the government.
In case they are joined by the former long-term coalition partners of the DPS, the Bosniak Party (BS) with three deputies and the Albanian List with one, it will still not be enough, which means that they will have to ask for the vote of at least one deputy of the "old majority" , i.e. the winning coalition in the elections on August 30, 2020, which consisted of the Democratic Front (DF), the Democrats and the Civic Movement (GP URA).
The signatories of the initiative claim that the TU is an "authorized act" from Belgrade and that by signing it, the foundations of the state are being attacked.
Political analyst from Belgrade Cvijetin Milivojevic says that the crowning question on the Montenegrin political scene is - what could be the motives of those who would like to overthrow Abazović's Government immediately, and what are the motives of those who would overthrow it, but not now.
He assesses that the DF and the parties that made up the previous Government (of which he was the head Zdravko Krivokapic) are not among those who would act immediately, because otherwise, he believes, they would send a very bad message to the voters if they and the DPS overthrew Abazović for signing the TU, for which they fought over lithium two years ago.
"That message would not be good for the upcoming local elections, and most likely not even for the possible extraordinary parliamentary elections that could follow if the government is overthrown," Milivojević told "Vijesti", adding that the DF and others would be better off to somehow indirectly help the temporary survival of Abazović.
"Vijesti", when DPS and SDP denied support to Abazović a month ago due to the establishment of TU in the Government, wrote that the Democrats could support the initiative that would lead to early elections Alekse Bečić. However, that did not happen, and subsequently they called for restarting relations in the "old" majority. The Democrats welcomed the signing of the TU, but at the same time stated that the Government experienced a "complete political collapse". They underlined that the goal of every opposition is to end the illegitimate government, but that their party does not want to be "anybody's contractor".
When asked whether they had formal or informal discussions with the DPS regarding the vote of no confidence in the Government and the potential formation of a new one, the Democrats told "Vijesta" yesterday that they had not.
They say that therefore the answers to the other questions of the paper - whether and under what conditions would be acceptable to them the minority support of the DPS, with whom they would discuss the formation of the government and whether it would be for a fixed period - are superfluous.
Milivojević says that the Democrats are in a position not to lose the electorate at the moment, although, according to him, they are not "on trend" like Abazović, "but they have that kind of continuity".
"They showed that in the elections in Nikšić and in other local elections. Some more radical moves are not in their interest, especially not moves that would concern the eventual direct entry into the potential overthrow of the current Government on the said occasion. This does not mean that a good part of the Democrats' electorate would not like them to be the ones to topple Abazović's Government, but not on this occasion and not while the matter of signing the TU is a 'friška'. That would be difficult to explain to the voters", emphasizes Milivojević.
When it comes to those who would "cut" the Government immediately, the interlocutor says that there is primarily DPS, which, according to his assessment, would also send a bad message before the October local elections in several municipalities and would not profit politically from them.
He supports his hypothesis with the results of last year's elections in Nikšić, as well as this year's in some other cities, where DPS lost power.
"Why do I claim this - because Abazović, although he does not have a large political organization, in fact, like the DPS, stole the 'red carpet of Montenegro' from the former Liberal Union of Montenegro Slavko Perović, also well on the way to, at least temporarily, snatching that carpet away from the DPS", Milivojević pointed out, adding that the prime minister cannot be criticized for any of what the DPS could point to - "not even that he is a smaller Montenegrin from the people from the DPS, neither that he is a citizen nor that he is a European".
The current government was formed on April 28, and apart from the URA GP, it consists of the SDP, the Socialist People's Party (SNP), CIVIS and parties of minority nations. Parliamentary support, without participating in it, was provided by DPS.
The civil activist believes that the signing of the TU will dominantly determine the events on the political scene in the near future Dževdet Pepić, who assesses that the TU will not further polarize the political arena, but neither will it calm the existing tensions in it.
According to him, that issue will perhaps only help maintain tensions at the current level.
"Political structures are still trying to keep their voters in what I would call a tension pot, so that the situation would continue to 'boil' and instead of normal topics we would talk about who was for and who was against signing the TU", Pepić told "Vijesta".
He states that TU will be one of the hot topics of the campaign for local elections. He says there will be stories about "traitors" and "patriots", but notes that Montenegro already has a "camped electorate".
"Some parties that have been on the political scene for a long time - some of them for over 30 years, some were in power for 18 years - participate in the condemnation of the signing of the TU, which is as it is... The question arises why they did nothing to solve the church problem ... We have been in the election campaign for thirty years and every controversial issue is used for it. However, it seems to me that citizens are already frightened by an excessive desire to prove themselves and beat the chest of heroes. "D-day", which has been going on for 30 years, is too much for the average citizen," says Pepić.
Prime Minister Abazović and Serbian Patriarch Porphyry they signed the TU, without prior announcement, on Wednesday in Villa Gorica in Podgorica.
Although several legal opinions dealing with the analysis of the TU were delivered to the Prime Minister, he rejected all remarks and suggestions on the text, and signed the document in the form in which it was adopted at the Government session on July 8, after coordination with the Serbian Orthodox Church.
Milivojević: Abazović will continue to be a desirable partner
Milivojević says that Abazović does not carry the ballast of his past as a DPS, and that therefore "he and the team around him" cannot be objected to on certain issues.
"Because he did not give up even an iota from the previous foreign policy of Montenegro, which is pro-NATO and pro-European, and he did not even 'recognize' Kosovo. On the other hand, he managed to establish relatively normal relations with Serbia, as the de facto country where most people of Montenegrin origin live. It's a big deal, and he did it as an Albanian. It really seemed like an impossible mission. And finally - he made a point about the electorate in Montenegro that was designated as the Serbian electorate. He managed what the former Prime Minister Krivokapić failed to do - he signed the TU with the SPC".
Milivojević says that in Abazović's place, he would not be afraid of the election.
"Because after the early elections, he could be a 'desirable bride' - again one of the most desirable coalition partners for larger parties, both from the pro-Montenegro and pro-Serbian lines".
Joković does not rule out cooperation with DF
Deputy Prime Minister and leader of the SNP, Vladimir Joković, told TV Vijesti yesterday that the DF's offer to "reset relations within the majority from August 30" will be decided by the party bodies of the SNP.
He added that, in principle, they are open to cooperation "with everyone who will work to fulfill their priorities".
"The SNP has shown its breadth and the possibility of talking with all political entities - and I, as a person, have shown that and I am ready to talk - but everyone must know that one of the key priorities, apart from signing the TU, is the census (population) of the 'Open Balkans' , the fight against crime and corruption, the law on the origin of property, the election of the Judicial Council, judges of the Constitutional Court... that one of the key demands of the SNP is the path towards the European Union (EU). If all those calling want to be unequivocally committed to it, the SNP is ready to talk to everyone".
The DF invited Abazović and Joković to consider a technical government model that would prepare the holding of parliamentary, presidential and local elections in one day.
They point out that they believe that, regardless of political and ideological differences, their proposal is acceptable to "the majority of respectable political entities and that it represents the only possible way out of the existing crisis."
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