The most powerful personalities in Montenegro: Đukanović's last circle?

In the era of political and social instability, power is also a fickle and unreliable category. The most powerful person in Montenegro today, as in years past, is the President of Montenegro and the leader of the Democratic Party of Socialists Milo Djukanovic. However, for the first time we can say that it is not certain that he will be in the same position in 12 months. The way in which Đukanović can exercise his power has changed, and it is now mainly in the service of destruction and destabilization on the internal level in order to present himself externally as a factor without which there is no stability. And that influence was seriously shaken by political defeats (parliamentary elections, enthronement, local elections) and neither the minority government nor the wise positioning after Russia's aggression against Ukraine managed to compensate for those blows. The consequence is what the latest CEDEM research shows - Đukanović today has less support than his party (24,4 percent of citizens would vote for Đukanović as president, and 27,7 percent for DPS).

Prime Minister Dritan Abazovic is the only one, along with Đukanović, who has continued high state positions since 2020. He still has a decisive vote, until the possible extraordinary parliamentary elections. A man of high ambitions who does not shy away from risky moves should not be underestimated, regardless of the fact that he is politically scarred and now burdened with accusations related to smuggling. His good relations with regional leaders, above all with the Albanian prime minister, are not unimportant either Edi Ram, but also the president of Serbia Aleksandar Vučić.

One of Abazović's open conflicts is the one with the company "Bemaks", by far the largest private company in Montenegro with enormous influence on several fronts, primarily political and media. The fact that the son Ranko Ubović, Ivan Ubović, as the formal owner is on "Nedjeljnik's" list of the 100 richest in the entire region with an estimated company value of almost half a billion euros, speaks for itself. When we add to that that, in percentage terms, "Bemaks" represents the most valuable company in the entire region in relation to the gross social product, the dimension of influence is clear.

According to all data, the strongest criminal clan in Montenegro is the Kavački clan, which managed to overpower its rivals from the Skaljar clan, primarily through brutal liquidations. The range of connections established by the kava clan are revealed practically on a daily basis, so the Special State Prosecutor's Office has its hands full with numerous suspects of being connected to the kava clan, including even its own colleague. Saša Čađenović. Regardless of being on the run, Radoje Switzerland, who has been determined to be the undisputed head of the clan, still has numerous levers of power, many of which are probably not even known yet. The latest data speak of great closeness with Darko Sarić.

Chief Special Prosecutor Vladimir Novović he is not a man who formally has great power because he is superior to the supreme state prosecutor, and he is not a man who the public has the impression of wanting to have significant power at all. Despite this, he builds it with his results. Socio-political circumstances have led to the fact that the chief special prosecutor with a rigid bureaucratic vocabulary and the halo of a cruel professional has before him practically a state-building task, as well noted by a political theorist Fedja Pavlovic. The cases under the competence of the SDT can irreversibly affect what the political scene of Montenegro will look like.

Who is on the downward path and who is on the upward path

President of Serbia Aleksandar Vučić is present in Montenegro in numerous ways, which could be expected. The strong patronage of political parties, media and other organizations make it an unavoidable factor.

Leader of the Europe Now Movement Milojko Spajic is already being projected for the future prime minister and his party is on the rise.

One of the leaders of the Democratic Front Andrija Mandic he is trying to change his political image and give the impression of a statesman, so he takes the initiative and sends messages that sound conciliatory, but it will take a lot of effort for anyone to believe him.

Leader of the Democrats and former president of the Assembly Aleksa Becic is always a good candidate for numerous positions because of his political moderation, although the Democrats' rating is no longer on the upward trend.

The largest private employer Dragan Bokan coped well with business challenges after the coronavirus, expands business and is judged to be swimming well even in new political circumstances. The second is on "Nedjeljnik's" list when it comes to Montenegro.

Diplomatic representatives are extremely powerful, and the most visible in Montenegro is the head of the EU Delegation Christina Oana Popa, ambassadors of the USA and Great Britain, Judy Rising Reinke i Karen Maddox, the charismatic ambassador of France Christian Timonius, and special envoys of the USA Gabriel Escobar and the EU Miroslav Lajcak.

Appearance Bran Mićunović at the "patriotic" rallies after the August elections, there was a demonstration of his declining power, as his appearance in public was as a rule inversely proportional to his influence. Although the old hero of whispered stories, is now present in public in pompous arrest announcements, his power was at one point so great that even the fact that he is no longer at that level does not mean that he should be underestimated.

Aco Djukanovic moved part of his business, but also his residence outside of Montenegro. Nedjeljnik's research confirmed that he is among the richest people in Montenegro, but his physical absence alone shows less interest in local events.

Former Prime Minister Dusko Markovic has been on the defensive since the end of the election, and by his own admission he is now out of line and within his party.

Đukanović's most loyal adviser Milan Rocen is tied to the power the president has. Unofficially, information is circulating that he was against the formation of a minority government, but that he failed to influence Đukanović not to participate in that process.

Mayor of Podgorica Ivan Vukovic he is not popular in the party, and he no longer has any results behind him after the debacle in the elections. He practically appeared in front of the journalists himself after the election defeat, and we will see if it will cost him the fact that Đukanović was the only one in Podgorica who did not speak at the pre-election rally, allegedly at the suggestion of Vuković. The young lions of the DPS, who seemed to be able to be the initiators of the reform, are also on the downward path, but they remain in the deep shadow of the party leader.

Metropolitan of Montenegrin and Littoral Joannikius it is not nearly as powerful as its predecessor. Apart from the pressure from Belgrade, which wants centralization, it has not yet managed to impose itself among a large part of the citizens of Montenegro.

Zdravko Krivokapic is out of active politics, but the publication of the book he is announcing could possibly have political implications.

Former GST Milivoj Katnić now we only look at propaganda points while the public speculates about his fate after the arrest of his first associate, Čađenović.

Veselin Veljović does not appear anywhere, and the former powerful Veselin Vukotić, Vesna Medenica i Blazo Jovanić are interesting exclusively to judicial authorities.