The candidate of the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) for the presidential elections can allegedly count on around 160.000 votes of voter support, as shown by the party's data from the field, "Vijesti" has learned.
That is not enough to win in the first round, if the turnout is like in the presidential elections in 2018 (340.462 voters), when there were 334.462 valid ballots.
In that case, DPS would lack about 10.000 votes. Current President Milo Djukanovic won 2018 votes in 180.272.
The total turnout in the parliamentary elections was 415.000, while the current estimates of Đukanović's party show that it will drop to 370-380 thousand.
All this in a situation where the estimate of around 160.000 is correct because, as the interlocutor from that party said, the information of party activists from the previous elections was "inflated" in favor of the DPS. Because of this, as confirmed to us, the party, in addition to the usual polling of supporters in the previous period, also carried out special checks of "hesitant" voters and those who are suspected of having "run over" to a ruling party.
Whether DPS will perform independently and with which representative is not yet known, and a decision is expected after Sunday. Then the leaders of the opposition should talk again in order to consider the possibility of joint cooperation.
And while in August 2020, about 200.000 citizens voted for the opposition parties of the so-called sovereignist bloc, including minority parties, they lost about 40.000 voters together in the meantime.
The first meeting, held in the middle of last week, ended without compromise and in unofficial circles it is speculated that "on the table" were the names of non-party candidates from the academic community. Allegedly, the proposal of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), which publicly advocates the joint performance the most, is that it should be a female professor Milica Pejanović Đurišić failed because at first she was not willing to stand on stage next to some former party colleagues.
"Vijesti" contacted the former ambassador to the United Nations and the former minister of defense on several occasions, but she ignored the interest.
The DPS did not answer questions about when the second round of opposition negotiations on a common candidate will be held, whether an agreement is expected and who will be the candidate of that party. What the data from the field shows, what are the chances of Đukanović, and how many of someone else from the DPS and the joint candidate of the opposition, was one of the questions of "Vijesti".
One of the interlocutors, close to the strongest opposition party, said that their internal analysis showed that Đukanović is far ahead of the non-party candidate from the academic community.
Teacher Predrag Zenović he previously told "Vijesti" that the absence of Đukanović's name from the election list would mean that he implicitly accepted defeat. "And yet even though someone is running on behalf of DPS, the chances of winning are less than ever. "If internal party reforms had taken place, these elections would have been a new chance for DPS," he said.
Several interlocutors familiar with the political situation also doubt that the DPS leader will eventually enter a competition from which he could emerge as a loser. That simply, one interlocutor explained, is not acceptable for him.
Also, it can be disputed that it should be the current president's third term, which the Constitution does not allow. But jurists differ in their interpretation, so it remains to be seen what this path will be like. The Constitutional Court previously allowed a third candidacy Filip Vujanović, but an expert in constitutional law Mirko Đuković claims that the situation is not comparable.
MP of DPS Nikola Rakočević said four days ago that he would not bid on when the party would come out with a presidential candidate, but that it would be very soon. He added that he is convinced that the pro-European opposition will join forces and that, as he said, whoever is the candidate of the DPS or the sovereignist bloc as a whole - he will be the winner of the upcoming elections.
For these purposes, as one of the unofficial interlocutors of "Vijesti" testifies, an attempt will be made to secure the support of the diaspora - which traditionally supports the DPS candidate. Supposedly, money could be a problem in this, because it is necessary to allocate several million euros for this, and the state budget and part of the businessmen - financiers are no longer available.
That is why, as the source explained, it would be possible to go for the option of bringing in diaspora voters from Europe, of whom, according to their estimates, there are around 20.000.
Supporters of the Bosniak Party, a traditional partner of the DPS, are also included in that figure. Her support for the DPS candidate is not being questioned, nor is the possibility of an independent performance being considered, "Vijesti" learns. IZ BS has not officially answered who it will support in the event that there is no common opposition candidate.
When it comes to the electorate of Albanian parties, its support is divided - so DPS, in the event of an independent appearance, can only count on half of the voters of that minority community, because some of them have turned to other parties, several interlocutors said.
Presidential elections are scheduled for March 19, candidate of the Democratic Front Andrija Mandic he already submitted his candidacy to the State Election Commission last night, and representatives of the Europe Now Movement, the Democrats, the Christian Democratic Party and United Montenegro announced their participation in the race for the head of state.
The right to vote in the upcoming presidential elections, which is the president of the Parliament of Montenegro Danijela Đurović announced for March 19, will have 543.175 voters. That number is about three thousand more than the number registered in the voter list in the parliamentary elections held on August 30, 2020, according to data from the Ministry of the Interior.
Support fluctuated, Đukanović's party held the anchor in its hands until now
In the 2008 elections, Filip Vujanović (DPS) received the most votes with 171.118 votes, while Andrija Mandić (Srpska lista) was in second place with 64.473 votes.
Five years later, in 2013, the same DPS candidate had 161.940 votes, while Lekić received 154.289 votes.
In the last elections in 2018, Đukanović won 180.272 votes. Although experts and political officials believe that the presidential and parliamentary elections are not comparable, statistics show that the DPS had significantly fewer 2020 votes in the 143.515 vote for deputies.
The SEC is checking whether Spajić and Mandić are also domiciled in Serbia
The State Election Commission has decided to contact the Republic Election Commission of Serbia, from which it expects information on whether Andrija Mandić and Milojko Spajić have the right to vote and reside in Serbia.
The President of the SEC, Nikola Mugoša, voted against that decision, who, as he told "Vijesta", believes that they do not have the legal authority to determine with authorities in other countries whether persons who are not yet formally presidential candidates have their residence outside of Montenegro. .
According to "Vijesti" information, the DPS, the Social Democrats and the Bosniak Party proposed at the SEC session that a request be sent to the RIK, which the DF representative supported, and the Democrats left the session. Representatives of the Socialist People's Party and the civil sector in the SEC abstained.
The topic of Spajić's place of residence has recently been brought up again, because it is doubtful whether he meets the conditions to run for the head of state, and Mandić was also mentioned in this context. Meanwhile, Spajić announced that his place of residence is undisputed.
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