The Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) will try to bring at least 40 of its own and minority party voters, who abstained in the first round, to the second round of presidential elections. In that party, they hope that with this and the absence of a third of the announced support for the candidate of the Movement Europe Now (PES) Jakov Milatović, the current head of state Milo Djukanovic could remain in his current position, several sources from DPS told "Vijesta".
Milatović, with the announced support of three rivals from the first round (Andrija Mandic, Aleksa Becic i Goran Danilović), could count on around 205 thousand votes in the second, which means that Djukanović, who if he "withdraws" the voters, would have two candidates left (Draginja Vuksanović Stanković i Jovan Radulović Jodžir) had close to 133 thousand, the triumph needed the help of over 72 thousand citizens.
The DPS therefore estimates that they could cancel that difference from the "reservoir of support", which they claim to have, even with the abstinence of a third of Mandić's and Bečić's voters, which they expect. Almost 19 citizens voted for the two in the March 103 election, and Đukanović's party hopes that around 34 of them could stay at home on April 2, when the second round is scheduled.
However, the first of the problems in DPS's plan may be that it is not certain that Vuksanović Stanković's 10 votes will "overflow" to him, because SDP has not yet decided whether it will support any candidate. From that party, they unofficially announced to "Vijesta" that they will make a decision in this regard "relatively quickly" at the party meeting.
Withheld "safe voices"
Đukanović stated after the preliminary results of the first round that the DPS clearly recognized "reservoirs of voter support that have not been activated", and that the party "will work diligently to create all the prerequisites" for those "pockets" to be activated. With this, he alluded to the low turnout in municipalities where Bosniaks and Albanians are the majority population (Gusinje, Ulcinj, Petnjica, Rožaje...), and in which he has had a lot of support for years.
The turnout in those areas was low because a significant part of the electorate there consists of the diaspora, on whose mobilization the DPS leader won the most important political battles. Her arrivals were financed by businessmen close to the DPS, and state infrastructure was also used for the organization. The recruitment of the diaspora, which Đukanović indirectly invited to vote several times during the campaign, is being worked on, according to the information of "Vijesti", and in anticipation of the second round.
A newspaper source from the DPS election headquarters said that their activists estimate that there are at least 25 of their and minority party voters in the country who did not vote on March 19, and that there are 20 of those in the diaspora who could support Đukanović.
However, the problem, according to the interlocutor, is that the activists exaggerated the number of "safe votes" in their settlements, which is why they are now being asked to be more realistic in their estimates. On Sunday, according to the same information, Đukanović received 15 votes less than the number of "safe" votes.
That is why the implementation of the plan, whose goal is to bring out at least 2 new voters on April 40, is problematic.
One of the obstacles, as the source explains, is the organization of the arrival of the diaspora, which, he claims, is complicated because the collection of money is not going as planned, and the state infrastructure that was previously (mis)used is no longer available for transportation. That is why, he says, part of the voters from European countries will come to Montenegro on regular flights, while flights to Tirana will be organized for the rest.
This increases costs because bus transportation from Tirana must also be organized. A part of these voters, as well as those who live in neighboring countries, adds the interlocutor, will come to vote in their organization, and their expenses will be "covered".
DPS expects the diaspora
The DPS headquarters did not answer "Vijesta" how they will mobilize voters, whether they will participate in the organization of the arrival of the diaspora, and whether it is true that Đukanović received 15 votes less than the estimates.
Local DPS officials are expecting the arrival of fellow citizens from abroad. The president of the Gusin committee of that party Adel Damjanović, told the newspaper that he expects a higher turnout in the second round. In Gusinje, 30,12 percent of voters voted on Sunday.
"I think the turnout was lower because the Albanian parties and part of the Bosniak parties did not have a clear position... You also know that Gusinje has a lot of evicted residents, who are working temporarily in the diaspora. We expect our citizens back now, at the beginning of spring. We expect a better turnout, at least around 50 percent," he pointed out.
Asked what the DPS will do to mobilize supporters, Damjanović replied that they will "invite the diaspora, all citizens and all abstainers" to support Đukanović.
"Because we believe that it is good for Montenegro, that it is good for minorities. We think that we will be able to bring citizens to the elections," he said.
President of the Rožaj board of DPS Mehmed Husovic, told "Vijesti" that he also expects a higher turnout in that municipality, where 42,29 percent of voters voted on Sunday.
"The percentage of citizens' turnout was normal, considering that a large part of people are external diaspora, that we also have a large number of people in the internal diaspora, in ex-Southern countries. Simply, people were not physically able to exercise their right to vote. We hope that this percentage will increase in the second round", he stated.
When asked what the DPS will do to make this happen, he said that the voters were informed and "are aware of the challenges facing Montenegro and our society".
"Our candidate deserves attention considering the current circumstances, geopolitics... All this points to the seriousness of the election. Even without our mobilization, the party will do everything to introduce our candidate to the media. We think that will be enough, but we will certainly do everything to spread information and the need for the turnout to be as high as possible... The right to vote belongs to people who are of age, who are aware of their responsibilities, and I think they will use that right...", he underlined. is.
The Bosniak Party (BS), which supports Đukanović's candidacy, did not answer the questions of "VIjesti" whether they will be part of the organization of the arrival of the diaspora. The leader of that party Ervin Ibrahimovic in mid-February, he met with Đukanović, who then "expressed the expectation that BS will support the DPS candidate", especially because the support of the diaspora, which is mainly from Bosniaks, will be crucial for the second round.
bluffing with a "tank"
Novinar Željko Pantelić assesses that the story about the "reservoir" of DPS votes, that is Đukanović, is a classic political bluff.
He tells "Vijesti" that the election headquarters of the head of DPS, bearing in mind that they cannot "sell" a narrative about how they can attract the voters of Mandić, Bečić and Danilović, launched the story about the "reservoir".
"Those who hope that history could repeat itself, referring to the year 2006 - apart from the fact that those two events have completely different connotations and resemble the comparison of grandmothers and frogs - should remember Marx's catchphrase that history is the first time he repeats as a tragedy, and other times as a farce. If August 30, 2020 was a tragedy for DPS and Đukanović, a farce awaits them in April," Pantelić believes.
According to him, DPS no longer has the infrastructure or resources it had at the time of the 2006 referendum to mobilize the diaspora.
"Also, it is one thing to take a path when deciding on the independence of the state, and quite another on the future of one person. The number of people in the diaspora, who believe that the election of Đukanović is a matter of the survival of the state, is negligibly small," emphasizes Pantelić.
The Administration for Cooperation with the Diaspora told TV "Vijesti" last night that there are about 150 citizens in the diaspora with the right to vote in Montenegro, but that a third of them belong to the countries of the region, and the rest to the EU and the USA. They said that they do not expect the arrival of a large number of citizens because "the diaspora understands these processes", and that they want "Montenegro to finally become a member of the EU".
"Broken" love with minorities
A "Vijesti" source from the DPS election headquarters says that one of the party's problems ahead of the second round is that it can no longer count on a larger number of votes from Albanians and that it is losing support from Bosniaks.
Speaking about the relationship with the Albanians, the interlocutor states that there are personal animosities on the part of the leaders of the Albanian parties towards the DPS, due to the fact that at the end of February he did not vote to be elected as a judge of the Constitutional Court Faruk Resulbegović, which those parties proposed.
When it comes to Bosniaks, the source says that BS did not bring all the voters it announced, because they allegedly canceled their support, and that an additional problem is that another party of that people, the Party of Justice and Reconciliation (SPP) in Montenegro, is growing.
The interlocutor claims that Bosniaks and Albanians would be much more motivated to support Đukanović in the second round if, instead of Milatović, his opponent was Mandić.
Pantelić: Đukanović is not fighting for the post of head of state, but of the party
Journalist Željko Pantelić says that Đukanović is not running for the second election round to win, but to keep his leadership role in the DPS and prevent the disintegration of the party and the system he created for three decades. According to him, Đukanović's goal is not to win fifty percent of the vote plus one, but to be above 40 percent, which, he explains, would maintain his credibility in the DPS and within the so-called of the sovereignist bloc, and enabled him to "once again break his promise to withdraw from politics, justifying the counter-turn by the necessity to 'sacrifice', once again, in the defense of the state".
The interlocutor says that the current head of state at the end of his term needs some kind of political umbrella if he wants to stay in the country. It is not, he states, the same if you are the leader of the strongest opposition party and a member of the Parliament and retired president of the republic, and a former party leader "without any protection against numerous 'creditors' and exposed to investigations by judicial authorities together with members of the closest environment who have enjoyed decades of unwritten immunity'".
"Because of the above, it is fundamentally important for Đukanović to transfer 40 percent of his support. Any result below that percentage would mean the prelude to the disintegration of the DPS or, even worse, the single and still strongest party in Montenegro will suffer the fate of the Greek PASOK or the French Socialist Party, which are within one election cycle of the prime minister in Villa Maksimos. , i.e. the president in the Elysee Palace, burned down to a single-digit percentage around the election threshold," Pantelić underlines.
He estimates that in the next ten days we can expect one of the dirtiest campaigns. Since, he says, Đukanović's team knows that they cannot win over new voters, they will focus on the so-called negative campaign and 'rejectionist voting' in order to discourage or demotivate Milatović's voters to vote.
That is why, he emphasizes, the Democratic Front (DF), the Democrats and the Citizens' Movement (GP) URA will be "on the big test of the sincerity of their support for Milatović in the second round".
"Thanks to the fact that parliamentary elections are very close, there is a high probability that this support will be strong. The irony of fate is that Đukanović called the elections (for June 11) hoping that his victory in the presidential elections would give DPS a boost in the parliamentary elections, and it turned out that his move forced all three columns from August 2020 to united around Milatović. "Someone ironic could conclude that even a dead Amfilohije defeats Đukanović, even more convincingly than when he was alive," says Pantelić.
Hadžić: If the diaspora comes, the majority of votes will go to Milatović
The president of the SPP in Montenegro, Seid Hadžić, told "Vijesti" that he expects a higher turnout in the second round because the "stakes" are also higher.
"So, the citizens choose whether they will remain in the jaws of crime, corruption, nepotism, national and religious tensions, poor economic conditions, or whether they will follow the path of development, prosperity, a better standard of living, European values and stability of the state in every sense", he pointed out.
Hadžić claims that the diaspora would have come in record numbers if Mandić had entered the second round, but not, as he explains, because it is tied to Đukanović, but because in that case "there would be two very different paths on the plate".
"Diaspora always chooses Europe, not international isolation. Given that in the second round we have two candidates who advocate EU integration, the diaspora, and if he comes, it is very likely that he will give the majority of votes to the new younger president (Milatović), who lived in the diaspora", claims Hadžić.
He assesses that the reasons for the low turnout in the first round in the municipalities where Bosniaks and Albanians are the majority are "layered" and that there are more of them.
"The low turnout in these municipalities is because most of those citizens were sent by Đukanović to look for a crust of bread outside the borders of our country. So, dissatisfaction with the overall socio-political situation in the country, turning their backs on the politics of division by less numerous peoples, and what seems realistic to me is that this percentage of turnout reflects the true state of the population in the municipalities in the north of the country", notes the interviewee.
Hadžić says that the mobilization of the parties was not at a high level on Sunday because, he claims, "the group around Đukanović expected Mandić to win easily in the second round."
"Now everything is disrupted, and the defeat was experienced by Malten in the first round, and Milatović will take an even greater number of votes in the second", he concludes.
Bonus video:
