"You just have to get up and start running, the goal is close. But, you have to stand up", is one of the ways in which several foreign diplomats explained, in informal conversations for "Vijesti"....
At the same time, they express incomprehension, and some of them also frustration, with the state in which the highest Montenegrin institutions are, as well as the long-term failure to solve some of these problems, for which they see responsibility in the Montenegrin politicians in power, both before August 30, 2020 and those after that date.
"Both the formal and substantive integration of Montenegro into the EU stopped in 2017," said the ambassador of the EU member in Podgorica.
The interlocutors of "Vijesti" cite the geopolitical situation caused by the war in Ukraine, the granting of EU candidate status to that country and Moldova, the fear for the security of the Western Balkans and the fear of the increased influence of third parties, especially Russia, as important reasons for this unique chance of Montenegro, the size of the Montenegrin economy. Gore, which does not threaten any EU member, small population, membership in NATO, complete compliance with the EU's foreign and security policy, great support of citizens for membership, and some of them also use the euro.
Although the problems of democratic processes, admittedly much milder than those in Serbia, still exist, tiny Montenegro remains the one that, in the opinion of the member states and primarily the expert community, should "sacrifice" itself for the good of all and become the first next member of the European Union. , evaluated Štiplija Todorović
The last enlargement of the EU was ten years ago with the entry of Croatia, and before that in 2007 when Romania and Bulgaria became members, and some interlocutors of "Vijesti" admit that the six-year "moratorium" on enlargement that was declared in 2014 by the then president of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker , had the effect of reducing the support of citizens of the region for membership, especially in Serbia. In Montenegro, close to 80 percent of citizens support its entry into the EU, polls show.
Nemanja Todorović Štiplija, executive director of the Belgrade Center for Contemporary Politics and editor of the European Western Balkans portal, and the EU's special representative for the Western Balkans, Miroslav Lajčak, agree with the interlocutors of "Vijesti".
"We need a good role model, these are the words we have been hearing for about a year now from officials and experts from the member states of the Union, since the beginning of the consultative meetings that led to the Franco-German proposal for EU reform, the same proposal that was presented in the region as only only as a proposal for expansion in 2030," Todorović Štiplija told "Vijesta":
"Reading the document itself, it is clear that the set deadlines will refer to the one country that can become a member of the EU in 2028 in a short period of time from the moment of completion of the internal reforms of the EU, the end of the negotiation process until 2030."
The Franco-German, as well as the Austrian, proposals deal with the acceleration of EU enlargement and envisage gradual integration by 2030.
The day before yesterday, Lajcak said that the EU wants to show that it is not turning to the east and that it is not turning its back on the Balkans.
"The EU wants to show that we are equally committed to the Balkans, but we need good examples and positive, successful stories from the Balkans," said Lajčak from the 2BS forum in Budva.
Serbia captured, Albania and North Macedonia still far away
Todorović Štiplija said that it was not difficult to reach Montenegro as a good example for its neighbors, because Montenegro is the only country in the Western Balkans without a single bilateral problem that can stop the decision-making process at the highest level of the EU. In addition, he adds, there is no EU member state that would have any reason to block Montenegro's path to EU membership.
"Aware of this great advantage of Montenegro, Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama, speaking about this type of blockade during the security conference in Bled, skipped over Montenegro during the enumeration of potential bilateral challenges of this type with the remark that 'Montenegro can pretend to be dead on the beach,'" he emphasizes Todorović Štiplija.
He said that democracy, together with the freedom of the media, in Serbia is at its lowest level since 2000, and that this downward trend, visibly undisturbed from the outside, is still continuing. In his opinion, there is no political will in Serbia to fight against corruption and organized crime, for reforms in the area of the rule of law and other democratic institutions that would prepare the country for potential membership in 2030.
"Last year's changes to the Constitution, although supported by the EU, led to complete control of the prosecution and an even greater weakening of the anti-corruption system," explains Todorović Štiplija.
On the other hand, as he says, Albania and North Macedonia are still far from the end of accession negotiations because that process has not even started yet.
He states that there are areas in which these two countries have progressed in the last few years, but the fact is that their authorities have not been in much of a hurry to reform until the countries get a clear European perspective, and until the EU solves its internal decision-making problems at the highest level.
"Although the problems of democratic processes, admittedly much milder than those in Serbia, still exist, tiny Montenegro remains the one that, in the opinion of the member states and primarily the expert community, should 'sacrifice' itself for the good of all and become the first next member of the European Union Union", said Štiplija Todorović.
The key is reforms in the area of the rule of law
However, he warns that only stable democracy and sincere reforms in the area of the rule of law, through Chapters 23 and 24, and those reforms that produce visible results, can make a Western Balkan country the first future member of the EU.
He said that Montenegro has as much as possible free elections, it has shown that changes of government are quite possible and just normal, and it also has free media, which most of the candidates for membership cannot boast about. Only reforms in the area of the rule of law remain, in the direction of which the first steps were taken during the mandate of the two governments from 2020.
The new Montenegrin parliament cannot sit because the president has not been elected, the government has been in a technical mandate for almost 14 months, the new one has not been formed even four months after the election, one judge of the Constitutional Court is missing, the Supreme Court and the prosecutor's office are run by acting officials, three members of the Judicial Council spend a fourth mandate.
One of the interviewees of "Vijesti" from diplomatic circles said that Montenegro must depoliticize its administration.
"Although the blockade of political institutions occasionally happens in the European Union, states function because civil servants who are loyal to the public interest work in the administration and continue to do their jobs regardless of the change or character of the government. There is no such thing in Montenegro yet," said that diplomat.
He also said that "all political leaders in Montenegro know what an opportunity this is, but I don't understand why they still do very little to take advantage of it."
Todorović Štiplija said that Montenegro has a chance to show the EU and the member states its sincere desire for membership with a new government, a more efficient system of fighting corruption and organized crime, the prosecution and the judiciary.
"Of course, there are mechanisms for that, which should not be played with, but concrete actions and real numbers should show the sincerity of that intention. How many Sanaders in Montenegro have been legally convicted?" he asked.
Todorović Štiplija said that the future government of Montenegro should realistically consider all the recommendations in the report on Montenegro that the European Commission will publish in a few weeks.
"Also, the new government could listen to the advice of the expert community and civil society, and by December do everything in its power to receive positive evaluations from the European Commission and the conclusions of the European Council."
There has been no chief negotiator with the EU for seventeen months
Montenegro has not had a chief negotiator for negotiations with the EU for almost a year and a half, and the Ministry of European Affairs (MEP) claims that this does not complicate the process.
After the minority government of Dritan Abazović was elected in April last year, the Ministry of European Affairs was formed, and Jovana Marović was elected as minister. Until then, there was the position of "chief negotiator" which was covered by Zorka Kordić in the Government of Zdravko Krivokapić.
Jovana Marović resigned in November last year, and the MEP is coordinated by the Minister of Ecology and Urbanism, Ana Novaković Đurović.
MEPs remind that at the meeting of the Collegium for negotiations in March of this year, it was agreed to improve the mechanisms for coordinating the EU accession process as soon as possible and restore the position of chief negotiator.
"After that, there were presidential and parliamentary elections in Montenegro, and our expectations were that a new government would soon be formed that would appoint the chief negotiator, which did not happen," the MEP told "Vijesti".
They point out that the fact that the main negotiator was not appointed during the previous period does not affect the dynamics or complicate the process itself.
"The government responsibly conducts the accession negotiations, and the Ministry of European Affairs works with equal quality and dedication to coordinate that process. The negotiating structure is operational, sessions of working bodies are held regularly and progress in the implementation of obligations is monitored," they said.
All major reforms require time and patience
Todorović Štiplija says that all major reforms require time and patience.
"This does not prevent Montenegro from forming a government that will begin reforms related to the rule of law on the same day. Let's go in order - first the progress report in October, then the conclusions of the EU Council in December... and if everything goes well, membership in 2030," he said.
According to him, two things have caused great confusion in the Western Balkans regarding 2030 as the possible year of admission of the first next member state.
"In accordance with our mentality, we expected everything immediately and now, without waiting for the EU's decision-making procedures, which, as we have been able to learn so far, are extremely slow."
He believes that the summit in Granada was not the place to discuss the future of the EU, because the European Political Community is not the Summit of the European Union and "there is no place for Moldova, Iceland and Monaco to discuss internal reforms of the EU and the possibilities of enlargement".
"The most influential media in the region, completely controlled by the authorities in Serbia, created the image that Granada is a turning point, and that now something epochal will happen there. It is already a well-known manner, well developed in the Russian state media, by which tomorrow's summit is declared a failure - because it did not meet the unrealistic expectations that the same media had the day before. Not to mention the 'pressure on Serbia and President Vučić,'" said Štiplija Todorović.
The leaders called for internal reforms of the EU, but also for the acceleration of enlargement
At the informal summit of member leaders on Friday in Granada, among other things, the bloc's long-term strategy and expansion were discussed. A large number of leaders emphasized that the EU still needs to do its homework on internal reforms before accepting more members. Some leaders have called for the bloc to move faster on enlargement.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said at a press conference that the process through which countries can join the EU is based on merit. She added that there are "no shortcuts" in the accession process and that Europe must continue the fight against people smuggling.
After the meeting, the declaration of the European Council was adopted, which states that "enlargement is a geostrategic investment in peace, security, stability and prosperity".
“Candidate countries should step up their reform efforts, especially in the area of the rule of law, in line with the merit-based nature of the accession process and with EU assistance. In parallel, the Union should lay the necessary internal foundations and implement reforms," the Declaration reads.
When asked by journalists why 2030 was not mentioned in the Declaration as the target year for enlargement, the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, answered that they must first of all look at the progress of the candidate countries.
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