The strongest Montenegrin opposition party, the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), would like the upcoming parliamentary elections in Serbia to bring a "long-desired" change in Belgrade's relationship with Podgorica.
This is what the head of the DPS parliamentary club, Andrija Nikolić, told Vijest.
"To fully respect the sovereignty of our country, and to give up all attempts of hybrid influence and influence on the political situation in Montenegro", he pointed out.
Early state elections in Serbia are scheduled for December 17, and 18 electoral lists will participate in them.
Since 2012, Serbia has been ruled by the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) of the current president of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić.
The upcoming elections will be the fourth since she came to power.
Nikolić assesses that the DPS would like to change the attitude towards Montenegro because they believe that the current Serbian government and the largest number of opposition parties there often have positions that, he says, are not fundamentally different. For years, the DPS has been accusing the Serbian government, as well as part of the opposition, of interfering in Montenegrin internal affairs. The recent head of DPS, Milo Đukanović, maintained close relations with Vučić for years, and there was speculation in the local media that he also sponsored the creation of SNS...
Nikolić states that the approach that all Serbs in the region respect and follow Belgrade's decisions has not changed for decades.
"In this way, Serbia is sending a message to the West that it is capable of creating regional problems, if the West denies it the opportunity to continue sitting on two chairs, making tactics in relations with Moscow," the interlocutor notes.
The head of the club of that party says that they expect the elections in Serbia to be a free expression of the will of the citizens of that country. He adds that for the stability of the Balkans, it would be important "for the new Serbian government to be sincerely oriented towards Euro-Atlantic integration, to follow the strategic policies of the EU, as well as to resist the influence of those centers that want this region to remain permanently outside the community of democratic European states".
Here, he says, he is primarily referring to "Russia's eternal aspirations to prevent the logical joining of the Balkan countries to the EU".
"Which represents a constant threat to the Western orientation not only of Serbia, but also of Montenegro. That's why I think that a more honest European policy of the authorities in Serbia, which stabilizes the region instead of creating a zone of constant instability, would bring the entire Western Balkans progress, more stable political conditions, a better economy and the standard of living of the citizens," states Nikolić.
The leader of the United Montenegro, Goran Danilović, said that in that party, they want the upcoming elections in Serbia to have as large a turnout as possible, in order to gain legitimacy and a peaceful election day.
"That the citizens of Serbia vote in a democratic way and that the votes are counted in a democratic way. That is all we most sincerely desire. It is completely unacceptable to communicate our wishes and desires. The will of the citizens of Serbia must be respected, I believe both internally and externally. I think that all of us, regardless of what kind of relations one wants with Serbia, are obliged to accept the results of those elections, no matter what they were," Danilović told Vijest.
He said that he hopes that the time is coming when the relations between Serbia and Montenegro will rise to the level that the citizens of the two countries deserve. He reminds that Belgrade and Podgorica have gone through "hot and cold phases" in the past twenty years, which, he emphasizes, always depended on good relations between political leaders, that is, those who held the positions of presidents of governments and states.
"I believe that in the near future the political elites will accept the reality that the citizens of Montenegro and Serbia are the closest to each other, and that the political relations between the leaders must not affect the relations between the states. I know it sounds utopian, but due to specific historical relationships, kinship and friendship, it is a sin to question those relationships because two or three political leaders do not understand each other at some point," underlined Danilović.
Civic activist Stefan Đukić told Vijesti that he believes that those Montenegrin political actors who go to Vučić's rallies hope for his victory, while the others "mostly don't care".
The meeting of Vučić's SNS, which was held last week in the Belgrade Arena, was attended by one of the leaders of the coalition For the Future of Montenegro (ZBCG), Milan Knežević. However, neither he nor his colleagues from New Serbian Democracy, another constituent of ZBCG, wanted to tell Vijesti what the elections in Serbia mean for Montenegro and what their expectations are. That alliance and its leaders have close relations with Vučić and SNS.
Đukić says that the upcoming elections are not being followed with excessive attention in Montenegro. He adds that these elections, bearing in mind how much is said about the relations between the two countries, are a secondary topic.
"I believe that most citizens would not even be able to identify more than two, possibly three politicians from Serbia. "I can't say for sure if it's because no changes are expected and everyone accepted Vučić as a 'given' or if there is some other reason," said the interlocutor.
Serbia: Only the change of government changes the attitude towards the neighbors
The parliamentary elections in Serbia, scheduled for December 17, are attracting undivided attention in the countries of the region, but there are also concerns about whether there will be a change in Belgrade's relations with neighboring countries. However, Danas interlocutors do not have a unified position on the possibility of change in the field of regional politics in Serbia. From the position that a general change in Serbia's policy towards the region is possible, but only by changing the ruling party and choosing the so-called civil option, to the point that no significant changes in Serbia's regional policy would take place "whatever the outcome of the election".
In recent years, Serbia has had very strained relations with most countries in the region. Serbia and Croatia recently expelled each other's advisers in diplomatic missions in Belgrade and Zagreb, on charges of espionage. When the Democratic Party of Socialists led by Milo Đukanović was in power in Montenegro, first Montenegro expelled the then ambassador Vladimir Božović, while Serbia in turn canceled hospitality to Montenegrin representative Tarzan Milošević.
Relations between Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina are traditionally strained during the commemoration of the genocide in Srebrenica. With most of these countries, Serbia has numerous unresolved issues that date back to the time of the dissolution of the SFRY - from the problem of the missing, to disagreements over borders, the unregulated status of the expelled, their property, attitudes towards crimes, glorification of war criminals as heroes... One of the most common accusations on Serbia's account is that it interferes in the internal affairs of the mentioned countries and that, as the then Minister of Defense of Serbia, Aleksandar Vulin, said - it creates a "Serbian world". However, Serbia, like the rest of the countries in the region, wants to join the European Union.
Aleksandar Popov, president of the Center for Regionalism and co-president of the Igman Initiative, states that the elections in Serbia always reflect on the region, at least through the use of harmful national rhetoric in the election campaign, where the emphasis is usually placed on national security.
"In the field of regional relations, this set of authorities has not made a name for itself. Mutual visits between officials from Belgrade and Zagreb have a more demonstrative significance, such as Dačić's (Ivica) visit to Zagreb at the beginning of this year, the meeting between Ana Brnabić and Andrej Plenković in 2016, and the visit of Aleksandar Vučić to Zagreb and his meeting with the then President of Croatia Kolinda Grabar - Kitarović in 2018," says Popov.
According to him, the only way to overcome this nature of relations between Belgrade and Zagreb is to resolve open issues between these two countries, for which the most important thing would be the establishment of some kind of commission for open issues.
"If we don't work on it, the deterioration of relations is inevitable," Popov points out.
He points to the special relationship between Banja Luka and Belgrade, but also that relations with Bosnia and Herzegovina as a whole also suffer due to the multitude of open issues between these two countries. Popov cites Vulin's visit to Sarajevo in 2021, when he openly spoke about the "Serbian world", as one of the examples of the image of this relationship.
What has appeared as a trend since 2017 in the relationship between Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, Popov points out, is the fact that all official visits and meetings take place at lower levels. In the absence of formal diplomatic relations, Popov reminds us of special relations. of Belgrade and Podgorica and indicates that in some situations Serbia interfered in the internal affairs of Montenegro. As a reason for the close relations between Belgrade and Podgorica, he cites the existence of individuals who are loyal to Belgrade, such as the current president of the Parliament of Montenegro Andrija Mandić. Popov states that Mandic is openly in favor of Belgrade and is open to special relations between Podgorica and Belgrade.
A general change in Serbia's policy towards the region is possible by changing the government and choosing the so-called civil option, says Popov.
On the other hand, Cvijetin Milivojević, a political analyst, told Danas that he does not see that there will be a significant change in the regional politics of Serbia, whatever the outcome of the election.
"We cannot talk about the regional politics of Serbia without mentioning the issue of Kosovo, which is burning in this pre-election cycle, as in the previous ones. Researches directly and indirectly show that the attitude of the citizens on the issue of Kosovo is almost unique and that this is what no election list will go against. All political actors behave in accordance with the will of the citizens," says Milivojević.
He points out that even the largest pro-European electoral list does not agree on this issue and that it is unlikely that anything will change in this field after the elections. As he states, from the XNUMXs until today, several groups in power have changed, but that Serbia's regional policy, at least in this matter, has remained the same.
When it comes to Serbia's regional policy in the field of relations with former Yugoslav republics, Milivojević states that he believes that Serbia respects the territorial integrity and sovereignty of all former Yugoslav republics.
"What normally damages these relations is that the current authorities intensify the national rhetoric in every election campaign," says Milivojević.
Aleksandar Ivković, researcher of the Youth Umbrella Organization (KOMS), thinks similarly. He states that there is very little mention of the region in the campaign and that the participants in the elections are not determined according to those topics, if the issue of Kosovo and the recognition of the Franco-German plan is ignored, why would most of the participants say that it is an internal issue.
He believes that relations with Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and other countries of the region "are currently not that important to voters in Serbia compared to other topics that are being promoted".
"We have seen friction with Croatia over the expulsion of an alleged spy, but such things are now almost a regular part of election folklore and do not say anything new," says Ivković.
The interlocutor of Danas points out that the authorities are abusing the genocide in Srebrnica in the pre-election campaign in order to "blacken the opposition", but that this is also nothing new.
"Whoever wins the elections, I don't believe that the neighboring countries will consider that the campaign in Serbia particularly worsened or improved mutual relations," says Ivković.
According to him, the only scenario where the victory of the opposition in Serbia is interesting is the moment of the formation of a technical, i.e. transitional government, since the opposition lists form a broad political spectrum.
"Such a government would not last a full term, and it would focus on internal problems - solving the issues of elections, corruption, media, while all other policies, in my opinion, would be on autopilot," says Ivković.
He also states that even in the case of the formation of a transitional government, there would be no decisions that would change the current status quo, since there is no consensus among the opposition parties on these issues and that "he does not see that there would be any change in regional politics, at least not after these election".
Ivković points out that the only reason why such a ruling coalition would deal more seriously with regional issues is the outbreak of a major regional crisis, but that such a situation would put too much pressure on the government in such a composition, and that it would not survive for long.
BiH: Half echo, half silence
The President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, and the President of the Serbian Parliament, Vladimir Orlić, have called for extraordinary parliamentary elections in several cities and municipalities, including the capital, Belgrade. The election will be held on December 17, 2023 along with the provincial elections. There is no doubt that in Bosnia and Herzegovina, at least in one part of it (the smaller but better one), the election race in Serbia will be followed by betting fever.
The President of Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, announced his support for Aleksandar Vučić, although in an interview with Belgrade's NIN, he said that the first man of Serbia worked against him in the last elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Nevertheless, Dodik pointed out that his support for Vučić and SNS is unquestionable. Dodik's opponent in the last general election and the president of the People's Front, Jelena Trivić, also supported the leader of the progressives.
The mayor of Banja Luka, Draško Stanivuković, also joined the queue of those looking for their place under the progressive sun, who a few days ago met with the Vice-President of the Serbian Government and the Minister of Defense of Serbia, Miloš Vučević. For years, Vučević has been considered one of the most loyal people of Aleksandar Vučić, and before he sat down in the ministerial chair, he managed Novi Sad.
It is certain, however, that the elections in Serbia will be followed far more in the Republika Srpska than in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Political analyst Tanja Topić tells "Oslobođenje" that flattering Vučić is the favorite political discipline of local politicians since he took over the sovereign rule of Serbia.
"Partly because a firm hand is their favorite political tool and they identify with adoration with the autocratic style of Vučić's rule. The second part is that adulation is so passionate because the blessing from Belgrade is a desirable condition for you to find yourself in power in the Republika Srpska", said Topić.
Republika Srpska, she adds, does not expect anything from the elections in Serbia, unlike the politicians. The winner in Serbia, says Topić, will mean nothing to the citizens, while for many political options it will be a matter of life and death. The citizens of Srpska do not expect anything more from domestic politicians, let alone from politicians from Serbia.
"For Bosnia and Herzegovina as a whole, the elections in Serbia carry a hidden desire for the winner to be the option that will not adhere to destructive politics, which automatically means additional tensions in Bosnia and Herzegovina. I think that the expectations are generally cemented in the 'status quo' state, which means the continuation of political depression and the eventual termination of old political loves and the establishment of some new ones", pointed out Tanja Topić.
The leader of the List for Justice and Order, Nebojša Vukanović, tells "Oslobođenje" that no political party in Bosnia and Herzegovina should interfere in the elections in Serbia. He says that the List for Justice and Order is the only political organization in Srpska that will not support any option in Serbia on December 17.
"Both Dodik and Trivić and Stanivuković call for voting for SNS. We have never supported Vučić or the previous government. The citizens of Serbia should decide on that. If we allow citizens with dual citizenship to vote in Serbia, then Vučić will always decide the winners of the elections in Srpska. Everyone helped Dodik, so now Vučić is also helping him. That is unacceptable. The heads of the Serbian Orthodox Church do the same thing when they honor Dodik. It's as if they went to a liturgy and told the people to vote for SNSD", said Vukanović.
Nikola Dragaš (News)
Lena Stevanović (Today)
Goran Dakić (Liberation)
Bonus video:
