The first three people of the country - Prime Minister Milojko Spajić, President Jakov Milatović and Head of the Assembly Andrija Mandić at the beginning of 2023 hoped for other positions. Mandić, after the failed attempt of the XNUMXth of August to form the government of Miodrag Lekić, decided to try to remove Milo Đukanović from the presidential throne, Spajić also embarked on the same mission, while Milatović was waiting to be enthroned as the mayor of Podgorica.
However, the actions of some of them will lead them to new political roles. Thus, after the conspiracy of the parties of Mandić and Đukanović against Spajić, Milatović will end up as president, Spajić will form the government, and Mandić will take over the parliament.
Most of the key political events in Montenegro in 2023 were reflected through the three highest officials. In the new year, it should be clearer whether the "surgeon" and "diagnostic", as Spajić described himself and his party colleague Milatović, will formally part ways due to the disagreements they have, whether Mandić will continue to preserve the alliance with the prime minister with a Gandhian approach or will return to "factory settings", and whether Spajić will shuffle the cards in the government if he (does not) fulfill his promises about a better standard of living.
Lekić could not reach the cabinet
The year began with the attempt of the winner of the election on August 30, 2020 to form a cabinet led by leader Demos Lekić, as it turned out, following unconstitutional changes to the Law on the President. Although the then-mandate announced after the first official meeting of party leaders that there would be no government, because the constituents of Dritan Abazović's cabinet did not want it, informal negotiations continued. The reason for that was, it seemed, the fear of parliamentary elections, the calling of which was certain if the government was not formed.
Since the deadline for this expired in mid-March, the 40th of August devised a new plan - for Lekić to return his mandate and for the executive power to be made by Abazović, the prime minister at the time, who managed the country despite the fact that his cabinet was overthrown. However, although XNUMX deputies of those parties agreed to it, one was against it - the leader of Ujedinjena Goran Danilović, without whose vote such an arrangement could not be implemented. Danilović said that he is against the "reconstruction" of the government he overthrew and that he can only support Lekić.
Soon after, the deadline for forming the government expired, so former head of state Đukanović dissolved the Assembly and announced early elections for June. He made the decision to dissolve by indirectly referring to the Law on the President, which he claimed he would not act on. Thus, Lekić definitely, ten years after his defeat in the presidential elections, which some of the public claimed were stolen, was left with no chance for the office of prime minister.
DPS and DF in a mission to sabotage Spajić
Đukanović's move came at the end of the campaign for the presidential elections, where he was fighting for a third term. The campaign was not as heated as many in the past few years, but there was a lot of dust before and after some candidacies were filed. Namely, the State Election Commission (SEC) decided at the beginning of February to address its colleagues from Serbia with a request about whether Mandić and Spajić have the right to vote and reside in that country. The inquiry was submitted before the two ran for office, and was supported by, among others, SEC members from Mandić's Democratic Front (DF) and Đukanović's Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS).
The SEC received a reply from the Serbian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MUP) in two weeks, and it stated that Spajić was domiciled in Belgrade, while Mandić was not. This resulted in Spajić's disqualification from the presidential race, after he submitted his candidacy to the SEC. Although he previously refused to talk about his citizenship, he claimed that he did not have one and then admitted that he had a Serbian one, that he requested a copy of it and that he registered his residence in Belgrade. He claimed that he took the citizenship so that he could travel to Japan without a visa.
Then his deputy in the Europe Now Movement (PES) and until then the most likely candidate for the mayor of Podgorica, Milatović, took the stage, who said that neither Spajić nor the party showed responsibility and that they owe the citizens an apology. He then enters the presidential battle, where, along with Đukanović and Mandić, four more competitors are waiting for him - Aleksa Bečić, Draginja Vuksanović Stanković, Danilović and Jovan Radulović.
However, the first two are his main competitors. In a campaign in which they send mainly conciliatory messages and deal with economic and social issues, which are not recognizable, Đukanović and Mandić, as well as their representatives in the SEC, decide on a new "double dog", organizing a TV duel without inviting the other candidates , with whom they were in a debate on the Public Service. In "sparring" on "neutral ground", Đukanović says that DF and Mandić are not unacceptable partners for him, and that a "reconciliation conversation" should begin, ignoring that in previous years he claimed that Russia was manipulating DF, that this alliance was working on the creation of "greater Serbia", to be behind the attempt to kill him...
PES called the duel a "duet", while experts in political situations pointed out that the goal of the two candidates is to delegitimize their opponents, because they are each other's most desirable opponents in the second round of the election.
If that was their plan, they failed in it, because on March 19, Milatović made it to the second round of voting with Đukanović. Although he entered the race with the mortgage of Spajić's citizenship, the deputy leader of PES won almost 98 thousand votes, 21 thousand less than Đukanović, and 32 thousand more than Mandić.
Đukanović's circle of honor
After Milatović's support and assistance were announced by Mandić, Bečić, Danilović, the remaining actors of the former August 32th majority and some local lists, it was clear that the second round of elections would be a formality and that Đukanović, after XNUMX years of rotating from the presidency to the prime minister's office, would leave authorities.
However, in the DPS they counted on the activation of the "support reservoir", i.e. of votes in municipalities where turnout was low. As "Vijesti" wrote, they planned to try to bring their own voters and the voters of the minority parties who abstained in the first round to the polls, hoping that with this and the possible absence of part of the announced support for the PES candidate, Đukanović would be able to stay. in power.
The plan obviously failed, because on April 2, Milatović triumphed with over 221 votes - almost 67 more than Đukanović.
A few days later, Đukanović stepped down from the party throne in the DPS, which he held for 25 years. As the temporary leader of the party, the Main Board (GO) of the DPS appointed the then head of the party's parliamentary club, Danijelo Živković, whom Đukanović said was "one of the most prominent people of the new generation of the DPS".
Frictions in PES and the "Do Kwon" affair
The changes at the head of the DPS took place at the time of preparations for the state elections, that is, the definition of the party's performance model in them. The most public attention on this issue was caused by the events in PES, and the reason is that their GO decided without Milatović that the party would go to the elections independently, which Spajić advocated, and not in a wider coalition, which was the idea of his deputy. At the same time, the Presidency excluded Janko Odović from it for "violating the unity of the party", which did not prevent him from later becoming a minister from the PES quota.
Disagreements in that party continued during the consideration of the electoral list at the party's Presidency session in mid-May, where, as "Vijesti" wrote, there were sharp verbal conflicts. Milatović had demands in this regard as well, and in the end it was decided that Spajić would be the candidate, while smaller parties and local initiatives were also on the list.
When the passions within the party subsided, attacks from "outside" came - six days before the election, the "Do Kwon" affair took place, after the arrested South Korean "cryptocurrency king" of the same name wrote to the addresses of several officials and functionaries about alleged business arrangements with Spajić. and financing of PES.
While that party claimed that the case was "fabricated" and that the affair was "staged" by Abazović, their political competition called on the Special State Prosecutor's Office (SDT) to investigate the connections between Do Kvon and Spajić. Such invitations were also sent from the DF, which in the meantime transformed into the coalition "For the Future of Montenegro" (ZBCG).
The case did not have an epilogue, but it affected the support of PES in the elections on June 11, although Spajić's party, which was its first appearance in the parliamentary elections, achieved an excellent result. Together with smaller partners, on the issue of salary and pension increases, she "earned" 24 parliamentary mandates, the coalition "Together" led by DPS 21, ZBCG 13, the alliance of Democrats and GP URA 11, and the Bosniak Party (BS) six. The coalition of the SNP and Demos won two parliamentary seats, the Albanian Forum also won two, while the Albanian Alliance and the Croatian Civic Initiative each won a mandate.
Some parties that played a significant role on the Montenegrin political scene, such as the Social Democratic Party and the Movement for Change, remained below the census.
From a deadlock to a stable majority
After the election, painful, months-long negotiations on forming a government began, in which all parties except GP URA and DPS participated - Spajić did not want to work with the former because of Do Kwon, and with the others because of the three-decade rule. Although it initially seemed that they would form a cabinet without the ZBCG, because Montenegro's international partners, primarily the USA, were opposed to it because of the coalition's anti-Western policy, in mid-August it seemed that an agreement with it was close.
However, at the end of that month, the negotiations failed because ZBCG rejected Spajić's offer for several seats in the government. The GO of PES then accepts Spajić's plan to form a cabinet with some long-time allies of the DPS, which is why new and even deeper disagreements arise in the party.
MPs Jevrosima Pejović and Radinka Ćinćur voted against it (the former will later be expelled from PES), and the party's decision was criticized by Milatović, claiming that Spajić is creating power with those "who are recognized as bearers of abuses". At the same time, he indirectly accused party colleagues of instructing part of the membership against him.
Due to the decision of GO PES, one evening citizens blocked roundabouts and intersections in several municipalities, demanding "defense of the electoral will".
The negotiations then reach an impasse, Milatović continues with criticism, but a new twist comes after the Democrats' refusal to allow the head of the parliament and the government to be elected by the deciding vote of the president of the Democratic Union of Albanians (DUA), Mehmed Zenka. ZBCG then enters the game again, but a new plot follows - BS falls out of it, and the Democrats return.
In the end, an agreement was made that the government would consist of PES and part of its partners from the list, the Democrats, SNP, the Albanian Forum and the Albanian Alliance, and that they would be supported from the parliament, without participation in the government, by the ZBCG coalition, which was assigned the position of head of the Assembly. According to the agreement on the formation of the government, ZBCG will enter Spajić's cabinet by the end of the coming year.
"Scam List"
The government was elected at the end of October, with a majority of 46 votes, which the last few executive authorities did not have. This ended the mandate of Abazović's cabinet, which governed the country even though it was overthrown in August last year.
The first decision of the new government was a fifteen-day postponement of the population census, which was scheduled for the period from November 1 to 15. That move followed after a part of the opposition and the Council of National Minorities requested it, saying that there were no conditions for conducting the enumeration because, among other things, control of the process was not ensured. Some of the parties announced a boycott of the procedure, claiming that a "fraudulent census" was being prepared.
Spajić started a dialogue with the opposition and councils, which resulted in an agreement to control the entry of collected data, develop software for their verification, prohibit parties from conducting a census campaign... Meanwhile, the process was postponed once again, for three days, and ended in Thursday without, as its organizers announced, major irregularities.
There is still a choice of VDT
Not long after the election of the Government, the annual report of the European Commission (EC) was published, in which it was stated that Montenegro has not progressed in the reform of the judiciary and that corruption, including high corruption, is still a concern and prevails in many areas, including state structures. . The document assessed that the state still faces "challenges" such as appointments to key positions in the judiciary.
In this regard, a lot has been done this year. In February, after the EU threatened to stop the negotiations, three judges of the Constitutional Court were elected - Snežana Armenko, Dragana Đuranović and Momirka Tešić, and in November a fourth - Faruk Resulbegović, which completed the seven-member composition of that institution.
When it comes to the Judicial Council, three distinguished lawyers were elected to positions ten days ago - Miodrag Iličković, Dražen Medojević and Fikret Kurgaš, thus ending the mandate of the three former members of that judicial body, in which they unconstitutionally served for almost five and a half years. and a total of over nine.
When it comes to VDT, its election did not require support in the parliament (votes of 54 deputies), so a new vote will have to wait at least a month.
Reconstruction, elections in DPS, census results...
In the upcoming year, 2024, the reconstruction of Spajić's government is expected with the entry of ZBCG into it. Although, as confirmed by both parties, there have been no formal discussions yet, ZBCG has been saying in recent days that they think that the personnel "refresh" of the executive power can be done before the end of the year, when the deadline for it is.
In the new year, the country is expected to vote on the election of VDT, and the candidates for that position are Maja Jovanović, Suzana Mugoša and Milorad Marković. As things currently stand, Marković has the best chance of becoming the head of the prosecution. In addition, one judge of the Constitutional Court should also be elected, since the recently elected president of that institution, Milorad Gogić, is eligible for retirement at the end of May.
In 2024, they expect the appointment of an ambassador, changes in the post of police chief, the immediate election of the leadership and local leadership of the DPS, the Congress of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), the formation of a new party that should be led by the former officials of the SNP. It is also expected that political crises will be resolved at the local level (Budva and Andrijevica), and the resolution of the situation regarding the elections in Šavnik, which have not been completed even a year and two months after they began.
The publication of the results of the population census will be particularly interesting, especially in the light of Mandić's announcement that there could be an open dialogue on amending the Constitution in the part of the official language.
"Black list", Marković and the party, Mandić in Belgrade...
The year at the end was also marked by the placing of Nikšić businessmen Miodrag Davidović and Branislav Mićunović on the "black list" of the US Ministry of Finance due to "connections with crime and the malicious influence of Russia in the region", the announcement by former Prime Minister Duško Marković that he could leave the DPS and form party, the recent departure of Andrija Mandić to the election headquarters of Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, which he justified by saying that he was at a friend's house, as party president.
Events worth mentioning are Milatović's inauguration in Podgorica, in the presence of the leaders of the Balkan countries, the departure of Draginja Vuksanović Stanković from SDP, Raško Konjević's decision to leave politics, the crisis of power in Zeta, the announcement of the annulment of the Government's decision on the recognition of Kosovo in the parliament and municipality because of this that Montenegro supported the proposal for Kosovo to join the Council of Europe, as well as the merger of Milan Knežević's Democratic People's Party and Marko Milačić's Prava Montenegro.
Half a year for progress towards the EU
In the next six months, it will be known whether the EU will give a recommendation to Montenegro for obtaining the final benchmarks in the negotiation chapters, which would lead the country to their closure.
As "Vijesti" wrote, the current government will be given half a year to show that it is serious about implementing reforms, so that in return it could start closing chapters and receive money from the new EU fund. ("Growth Plan for the Western Balkans"). Like other neighboring countries, Montenegro will have to prepare a reform plan from 2024 to 2027, which will be approved by the EC.
Reforms will be tied to deadlines, and their implementation will be a condition for receiving money as budget support twice a year, that is, every six months. The plan will have to be based on the recommendations from the EC report, as well as on the program of economic reforms.
The government submitted a set of reforms to the EC, and the Ministry of European Affairs (MEP) told "Vijesta" at the beginning of the week that the EC's current proposal is to set the deadline for meeting the goals by the end of 2027, and to measure progress every six months.
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