Milica Pejanović Đurišić, the president of the Atlantic Alliance of Montenegro, said that she hopes that peace will return to Europe, which is in the interest of the countries of the Western Balkans.
At the opening of the panel discussion: "Challenges and opportunities for peace in Ukraine: Euro-Atlantic perspective", organized by the Atlantic Alliance, she said that the international community shows a high degree of solidarity when it comes to helping Ukraine.
"Since the beginning of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, we have witnessed aggression against a sovereign country and a threat to peace and stability. The international community shows a high degree of solidarity. Entering the third year, it has shown that Russia is adapting to the circumstances. The goal remains the same as before the beginning of the aggression - to undermine Western democracy, alliance", says Pejanović Đurišić.
The Ukrainian crisis, he adds, has shown that Western democracies can separate themselves from economic dependence on Moscow and Beijing.
"By engaging regional proxies, they are trying to destabilize the region and move it away from the European path," said Pejanović Đurišić.
She reminded that Montenegro conducts policy in accordance with the European Union and the NATO alliance, that since the beginning of the conflict, it has received more than 95.000 citizens of Ukraine, and that the Government has extended temporary protection until March of this year.
"The Atlantic Alliance has been committed to providing assistance to Ukraine, not only since the beginning of the aggression, but since 2014 when Donetsk was attacked. Today we are here to once again show solidarity. I hope that peace will return to Europe, what to us in the Western Balkans represents interest," said Pejanović Đurišić.
Also participating in the discussion are: Minister of Defense Dragan Krapović, US Ambassador Judi Rajzing Rajnke, Ambassador of Ukraine Oleh Herasimenko and President of the European Movement of Montenegro Momčilo Radulović.
Herasimenko: If Ukraine falls, NATO will be at war with Russia
Herasimenko said that, "if Ukraine falls", NATO will be at war with Russia.
"We know that if Putin is successful here, he will not stop. He will continue to advance in Europe. If Ukraine falls, NATO will be at war with Russia. Before the very start of the war, Minister Koleba said that the start of the war would cause a huge crisis. Lloyd Austin pointed out that Russia must be defeated in Ukraine. We defend European values there," Herasimenko said.
He said that Ukraine is going through a difficult process.
"We see millions of people who have been destroyed, families who will never be happy. In Avdeeyevka, immediately after the capture of the city, the Russians started committing crimes. There is no crime that Russia has not committed in Ukraine. Ukrainians know what they are fighting for. We must fight to we survive and we will endure," the ambassador said.
He assessed that the "appetites of the Kremlin" go "far beyond the borders of Russia".
"Ukrainians want peace more than any other nation, but we will not allow the Russians to kill us, nor will we allow the surrender of our country. Our country is paying a heavy price for the last 10 years. We must understand our Euro-Arlan perspective. And that is the most realistic way to peace in Ukraine." said Herasimenko.
He said that Montenegro's support does not refer only to the previous few years, but to the beginning of the aggression against Crimea.
"We received political support and this support was a characteristic of all governments that changed in Montenegro. We also witnessed technical military and humanitarian assistance. We heard the data we received from the United Nations and he mentioned 40.000 citizens from Ukraine who came to Montenegro. The figure fluctuates and the exact figure is on the MUP website. Ukrainians received all possible support from the authorities at the local level. They saw solidarity, messages of peace and live safely in Montenegro. A certain number of Ukrainians is now decreasing - there are several thousand. The total number of displaced people in Europe has decreased. This trend will continue to decrease. As long as the Ukrainian army continues to liberate territories, they will return. There are many Ukrainians in EU countries, especially those who fled from the occupied territories. A large number of them returned to Ukraine. Those who return from Montenegro carry the most beautiful memories," said Herasimenko.
Rising Reinke: If Putin wins, the next victim is Europe
US Ambassador Judy Rising Ranke said that the end of the conflict will come and that it will be an end in which the Ukrainians will win and be proud of their international position.
"Two years of war brought destruction and I shudder to live in the years of a devastating war. Innocent people are killed and this is something we must not forget. Putin's goals have not changed - his goal is the destruction of Ukraine and Ukrainian identity," he says. ambassador.
If Putin wins, as she said, "the next victim is Europe."
"We should not be worried because the UN charter has been violated. Ukraine is fighting bravely. The goals of the Kremlin have not changed, Ukrainian courage has not changed either, but Europe has. The EU cares about the freedoms of its borders, but also citizens outside its borders. The EU provides support to all countries, especially the candidate countries. We will stay until Ukraine achieves the peace it deserves. Ukraine is not alone - we saw representatives speaking from the floor of the assembly. On the other hand, Russia is isolated. It is represented as an aggressor by most developed countries." , added Rising Rajnke.
Krapović: Ukraine must emerge as a winner
Defense Minister Dragan Krapović said that Ukraine must emerge victorious and must be firmly supported.
"I'm sorry that we don't have peace as a certain category. I think that the security conditions have changed since the beginning of the aggression. The Euro-Arlant area is not at peace. This was stated at the session in Brussels. One brutal aggression made agreement and unity impossible," said Krapović.
It is clear, he adds, that Russia will not withdraw.
"Our region has clearly communicated its intentions to expand the conflict to possibly the Baltic countries, Moldova. When we take all that into account, we understand that the war will continue, but definitely what is the battlefield will determine further political steps. I participated in the NATO-Ukraine council where the members and Ukraine are considering the topics. Also, I think it is necessary that all members have to do much more in terms of capacity building," says the Minister of Defense.
"I certainly think that the region is oriented differently at the moment. The only guarantee of permanent stability in the Balkans is the full integration of the region into NATO. This is the only way to achieve stability in the region. I have to apostrophize the engagement of the EU and NATO must be greater. They must give more importance presence in the Western Balkans," adds Krapović.
Radulović: What Putin is to Eastern countries, Vučić is to the Balkans
The President of the European Movement of Montenegro, Momčilo Radulović, said that it is difficult to say when the war will end.
"Nothing has to happen unless we are determined. When I say we, I mean the entire west, where I see Montenegro. Navalny's murder on the day of the Munich Conference is symbolic. If we want to live in a democratic order, we must do our best. That means let's return to the language of facts. The war costs Ukraine between 200 and 250 million per day. With that money, Ukraine maintains the battlefield on pure defense without further progress," said Radulović.
He says that Russia is not what the former Soviet Union was.
"Huge funds do not give Ukraine what it needs. We must all do everything to increase this aid significantly," he adds.
Radulović said that "we have to learn lessons, and the West has not learned them".
"Analysts have been talking about Putin's ambitions since 2010, and Western leaders didn't take it seriously. They only started to understand in 2014," he says.
He pointed out that the process of reducing dependence on Russian gas did not start in 2014, but only in 2022. If it had started then, "we might have prevented the conflict."
"In the Balkans, we have a reflection of everything in a smaller picture. What Putin is to Eastern countries, Vucic is to the Balkans. It is the same methodology and practice. They differ in that Vucic does not have a nuclear bomb. Fortunately, he does not have as much military power as the JNA could, just as Putin can. Giving in to Vučić does not lead to stability, but to further conflicts," said Radulović.
"Countries are only as safe as the commitment of governments, leaders and residents"
Herasimenko said that they had been talking about hybrid threats for years, including a way to reduce Russia's influence on Ukraine.
"Threats by Russian officials have practically happened to Moldova. There are networks of people who support Russia and their activities in many parts of Europe. In 2023, their activities are strengthened and we will see new activities to form new conflict zones, in an effort to revive the old changes Illegal activities of Russia are financed through illegal money," said the ambassador of Ukraine.
When asked how safe we are in the Western Balkans and whether we can count on NATO's support, Ambassador Ryzing Rajnke answered that countries are only as safe as the commitment of governments, leaders and residents.
"A sense of urgency needs to be established in the US and in the surrounding area. There is a need for a sense of urgency and anger. The sense of urgency I'm talking about refers to the countries surrounding Russia and the West Bank," she stated.
Krapović: Russia tried to undermine the region's European aspirations
Atlantic Alliance Communications Manager Matija Otašević pointed to the recent threats to Bosnia and Herzegovina by Russia when it comes to NATO integration. He asked Krapović how seriously the Ministry of Defense takes these threats and how we adjust our defense strategies.
"At one session of the Government, I commented on the statement of (Russian Ambassador to Montenegro Vladislav) Maslenikov. We had opposition before, but now it has been extended to EU membership. Russia was trying to undermine the European aspirations of the region. More than 80 percent of Montenegrin citizens support entry into the EU. Of some two thousand, a large number of investments and a large amount of money from Russia went to Montenegro. This is the infrastructure to shake Montenegro's will to be the next member of the EU," said Krapović.
He said that through a set of media laws, the government will "narrow the possibility of media manipulation", and that in the area of cyber and hybrid warfare, we will strengthen our capacity to respond.
"This leaves a sentiment in society from previous times. It leaves room for citizens to be manipulated. We must increase citizens' awareness through timely reporting," said the minister.
Krapović: The goal is to acquire two patrol ships by 2027.
Krapović said that the goal is to acquire two patrol ships by 2027.
"I think that with this procurement and with four patrol boats, the Army could perform that work. When it comes to systems for anti-drone warfare, we work with partners from Slovenia. One of the projects is the installation of a radar above Kolašin. In addition to the procurement of ships, we put this on top priority. Those are the two priorities of the Ministry of Defense, but we are also considering anti-drone technology with Slovenia," said the Minister of Defense.
He says that Ukraine united the Western world.
"Such an example is best reflected in Sweden and Finland," said Krapović.
Radulović: Dodik tells what he is told from Moscow
Radulović said that Milorad Dodik, president of the Bosnian-Herzegovinian entity Republika Srpska, is saying "what they tell him from Moscow".
He said this when asked if Dodik was in Montenegro as a representative of BiH or Russia.
"He is part of a bigger story - Gerasimov's doctrine. We see the consequences in the security sector as well. Some structures that were not for NATO are now openly advocating for those values. The minister is very aware of the hybrid danger. I hope that the institutions in Montenegro will react differently. You cannot come to the country as you please. When you are an official of a country, you cannot insult a country. There is an institution of 'persona non grata'. The answer had to be stronger," said Radulović.
He also said that Ambassador Maslenikov would be the best ambassador of Russia in Montenegro - if Russia were a democratic country. "He is forced to repeat the constructions of Moscow".
"The attempted coup d'état was to prevent Montenegro from joining NATO, and now we are seeing the prevention of entry into the EU," said Radulović.
He is not optimistic, he says, about Ukraine's membership in NATO.
"Still, I think Putin has lost the war. He might keep a part of Ukraine, but he basically lost because what he wanted didn't happen. Russia looks like an old boxer back in the ring. He punches hard, but there is a very internal bleeding. It's not the same to be a boxer at 20 and at 45," says Radulović.
It indicates that Russia allocates between 8,5 and XNUMX percent of GDP for the war and that for the first time these expenditures are higher than social expenditures.
"If the West increases allocations to Ukraine, allocations to Russia will become unfeasible. The question tomorrow is how long Russia's GDP growth will last. I'm optimistic that there will be good solutions. You've had Ukraine under significant Russian control for years. Many parties and companies were under control, but none of them survived," Radulović points out.
Bonus video:
