Although some of the Montenegrin ruling parties, the non-governmental sector and diplomats believe that the European Commission could give Montenegro a positive Report on the Fulfillment of Interim Benchmarks (IBAR) for Chapters 23 and 24 in June, and even if some of them are not fulfilled, that it is not a done deal, "Vijesti" learns.
Part of the interlocutor of "Vijesti" claims that the mood in Brussels is for Montenegro to be the "success story" of the enlargement of the European Union, so that even if the authorities do not formally fulfill most of the remaining temporary benchmarks, the EC will give a positive IBAR and transfer them to the final benchmarks. .
"Brussels is currently working, not to speed up the admission of Montenegro, but to 'bring' it into the EU," a former high-ranking official told "Vijesta".
For chapters 23 (judiciary and fundamental rights) and 24 (justice, freedom and security), there are a total of 83 temporary benchmarks, of which, according to recent informal assessments by the European Commission, 31 are unfulfilled. According to the new accession methodology from 2020, which was accepted by Montenegro , if the transitional benchmarks for key chapters 23 and 24 are not met, no other chapters will be able to close. Montenegro has opened all 2012 chapters of EU negotiations since 33 and for that period, and temporarily closed only three.
A "Vijesti" source familiar with the negotiation process said that it is necessary for Montenegro to meet at least some temporary standards, such as the adoption of media laws, at least one more law under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Justice, as well as the possible initiation of another investigation related to high level corruption.
The visit of the European Commissioner for Enlargement also contributed to spreading optimism Oliver Varhelji at the end of last month. One interlocutor of "Vijesti" claims that Varhelji said at one of the meetings, after a high state official said that it might be a problem for Montenegro to meet the temporary criteria by June, that they "don't worry about it".
Chief negotiator with the EU Predrag Zenović earlier he told "Vijesta" that by the end of April it is necessary to make maximum efforts in order for the Government to establish systemic laws in the field of justice and the fight against corruption and organized crime, among other amendments: the Law on the Judicial Council and Judges, the Law on the State Prosecutor's Office, The Law on the Special State Prosecutor's Office, the Law on Prevention of Corruption, the Law on Confiscation of Property Gains from Criminal Activity and the Code of Criminal Procedure. By the end of April, it is expected to determine the media laws, which are in the final stage of preparation, specifically the Law on Media, the Law on Public Media Service RTCG and the Law on Audio-Visual Media Services.
Varhelji recently said in an interview with "Vijesta" that Montenegro could receive the final benchmarks in the summer, and the government has repeatedly said that they expect IBAR in June.
It is not only the Commission that is asked, but also the Member States
However, even if it is true that Varhelji's department is ready to "see through the fingers" of Podgorica, not only the Directorate for Enlargement is competent, but the Directorate for Justice should also give its opinion on this, and a possible positive IBAR will have to be confirmed by the Council of the EU. in which representatives of member states sit at different levels.
"It is enough that, for example, the ambassador of a member state lodges an objection at a Council meeting and the timing is disturbed," said one of the interlocutors of "Vijesti".
The German Council on Foreign Affairs (DGAP) assessed that the EU needs a success story in the Western Balkans, and the entire region is watching Montenegro carefully, but IBAR could complicate things.
One of the risk factors for Montenegro to move faster is the EU itself, they warn, so even if it meets the goals, Montenegro could find itself in difficulties in "selling" another IGC (Intergovernmental Accession Conference) to some EU member states, which was promised by the Belgian Presidency of the Council to the Montenegrin authorities, and at which the IBAR is decided.
"Albania and North Macedonia have been waiting for the IGC for a long time because of the Bulgarian veto related to the obligation of Skopje to change its constitution and the big bilateral quarrel that developed between Albania and Greece. Some members of the EU Council will advocate scheduling a joint accession conference for all three countries before the end of 2024. Such a decision could reduce the current reform momentum in Montenegro at a sensitive moment", say DGAP.
DGAP believes that this could call into question the principle of "reward according to merit".
"The geopolitical interest of the EU in the Western Balkans will be threatened, and competitors like Russia will benefit. The EU should therefore act decisively by encouraging Montenegro to redouble its reform efforts and ensure that the country's commitment to change is properly recognized and rewarded," DGAP said.
DGAP indicates that under the previous governments, Montenegro gambled away goodwill by not fulfilling much of what Brussels ordered.
“As a result, EU member states are now likely to take a cautious approach. Although understandable, such a response to Podgorica's renewed efforts to join the EU may miss the main point: that, through Montenegro, the EU will once again 'conquer the ground' in the Western Balkans", DGAP stated in the report.
In addition, as it is added, given that Russia is busy with other challenges, and Serbia is focusing on the persistent crisis in the north of Kosovo, the EU currently has an advantage over potential saboteurs.
"At the same time, the EU must manage high expectations in Montenegro. Recent visits by senior EU officials to Podgorica have raised expectations of rapid progress in accession, rather than emphasizing the need for reforms. If Montenegro does not meet the temporary benchmarks, it will not be able to progress on its way to the EU", says the report of the German organization.
However, as it is added, any success on this path is an important consolidation factor for the ruling coalition and a victory for the EU, and the worst scenario includes a return to domestic instability.
"A weakened government and another early election could undo the modest benefits achieved since the Spajić cabinet came to power," DGAP points out.
Another obvious challenge for Montenegro's prospects for the EU is, as they add, the lack of human capacity and technical expertise in public administration.
“In some cases, this is resolved by rehiring civil servants from previous Democratic Party of Socialist (DPS) governments. We heard that such recruitments are ongoing in the ministries under the control of the Europe Now Movement (PES)," the report says.
Reconstruction with ZBCG is a real test for Montenegro
In this German organization, they estimate that under the new government, Montenegro has unblocked the EU accession process.
"Although this small country faces many obstacles, it now represents the best opportunity for the EU to restore the momentum of enlargement in the Western Balkans," the DGAP stated.
The period until the middle of 2024, they add, will be crucial for progress in reforms in Podgorica and an adequate response from Brussels.
"Their moves will be closely monitored by Russia, which is ready to take advantage of new vulnerabilities in this NATO member strategically positioned between Serbia and the Adriatic coast," said DGAP.
They believe that the real test for Montenegro will be the inclusion of the ministers of the Coalition for the Future of Montenegro (ZBCG) in the Government.
"This, in turn, will also increase the indirect influence of Belgrade - and perhaps Moscow - on further developments in Podgorica," the report says.
They remind that the current government constellation was criticized by some Western allies of Montenegro because they are the leader of the New Serbian Democracy Andrija Mandić and the parties of the ZBCG bloc were, until recently, firmly pro-Russian and against Euro-Atlantic integration.
"Nevertheless, in the coalition agreement, ZBCG undertook to follow the Government's foreign policy, including 100 percent alignment with the EU regarding sanctions against Russia. For now, Mandić is acting as a constructive player and the loudest supporter of EU reforms, while the other leader of ZBCG, Milan Knezevic, presents more radical views. This has already created internal frictions within the bloc", DGAP assesses.
As they add, if the current arrangement is terminated, PES is ready to form a majority with DPS and ethnic minority parties.
“PES's depolarization strategy seems to be paying off, at least for now. Of course, this partial success also causes staged incidents around national symbols, especially from the pro-Serbian side, which are designed to keep identity politics in the foreground. For example, a doll with the image of a liberal writer Andrei Nikolaidis it was burned on March 2 during local carnival celebrations in the city of Herceg Novi, a stronghold of ethnic Serbian radicals. This kind of act and similar ones can even be encouraged from Belgrade or Moscow", according to the DGAP.
The political situation in Montenegro is still very fragile
The German Council for Foreign Affairs believes that, overall, the political situation in Montenegro is still very fragile and faces three current challenges. These are the reconstruction of the Government, which will include the ministers of ZBCG, tensions with the President of the State, Jakov Milatović, who resigned from the PES, and the uncertain unity of the PES parliamentary group.
"Nevertheless, the latter remains united, and tensions between the president and the prime minister are nothing new. Therefore, the biggest risk is the future reorganization of the cabinet. Due to the accumulated tensions, it could happen very quickly and, in order to balance the strengthened role of the ZBCG, it could include the Bosnian Party (BS). "One of the political losers of the reorganization could be the current Minister of Justice, Andrej Milović, who has already been excluded from PES," said DGAP.
Much, they believe, will depend on Spajić's political influence.
"It seems that his government bought time at least until the summer to consolidate its ranks and achieve results on the road to the EU, as well as in the economy and public finances," the report concludes.
Reconstruction of the Government after IBAR
Prime Minister Milojko Spajić said yesterday that he is focused on getting the Report on the fulfillment of temporary benchmarks and delivering the results, and after that he will deal with other issues, including the reconstruction of the Government.
"When we get the results, we will deal with all other issues, but the most important thing is to get that result", Spajić said at a press conference with US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Gabriel Escobar.
The reconstruction of the Government is foreseen by the coalition agreement by the end of the year at the latest.
New Serbian Democracy (NSD) MP Jovan Vučurović reacted, saying that in this party they believe it is important that the reconstruction of the Government takes place as soon as possible and that it would contribute to overcoming certain problems in the executive branch.
"We all need to be responsible, it's already the second half of March, and finally June is tomorrow. "Montenegro needs stability and peace, and we believe that a strengthened Government will work even more successfully", announced Vučurović.
Spajić, responding to a journalist's question about his comments on the Democrats' temporary support until receiving IBAR, said that neither before nor after IBAR will he allow the politicization of the administration and any part of the executive power.
He was answered by the Minister of Defense and Vice President of Democratic Montenegro, Dragan Krapović, who said that the politicization of the Police Administration is now on the scene "through the illegal appointment of the Acting Director of the Police by an unauthorized proposer".
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