Postponing changes in the Government is a rational decision by the Prime Minister Milojko Spajić in order to avoid turbulence until receiving the Report on the Assessment of the Fulfillment of Temporary Criteria (IBAR), the interlocutors of "Vijesti" assessed.
They remind that the coalition agreement foresees the reconstruction of the Government by the end of the year at the latest, and they do not believe that the coalition For the Future of Montenegro (ZBCG), which asked to enter Spajic's cabinet before the summer, will lose patience due to the wait of several months.
On Monday, the Prime Minister said that he is focused on getting the Report on the assessment of the fulfillment of temporary benchmarks and delivering the results, and after that he will deal with other issues, including the reconstruction of the Government.
"When we get the results, we will deal with all other issues, but the most important thing is to get that result", Spajić said at the press conference.
President of the Center for Democratic Transition (CDT) Milica Kovačević reminds that the executive power, the judiciary and the parliament face numerous complex tasks that need to be completed within a very short period of time in April and May.
"Any turbulence could harm the already weak capacity to fulfill obligations," she told "Vijesti".
Journalist and analyst Željko Pantelić indicates that anyone who tries for any reason to overthrow the existing Government or threaten the ruling parliamentary majority, is working directly against the main political priority of Montenegro, the entry into the EU, even if they have the best intentions.
"The Belgian Presidency of the EU is working full steam ahead for IBAR to be ready in April, so that Podgorica can close one or two negotiation chapters already in June. My sources in Brussels told me that the EU plans to close four to five chapters with Montenegro by the end of the year, on the condition that the Government of Milojko Spajić, the ruling majority in the Parliament of Montenegro and the judicial authorities continue to work as they have started," he said. Pantelić to "Vijesta", answering questions about how the postponement of the reconstruction of the Government and the non-entry of the ZBCG coalition will affect the adoption of the laws required for IBAR.
Member of the New Serbian Democracy (NSD) Jovan Vučurović he said on Monday, after Spajić's statement, that in this party they believe that it is important that the reconstruction of the Government takes place as soon as possible and that it would also contribute to overcoming certain problems in the executive branch.
"We all need to be responsible, it's already the second half of March, and finally June is tomorrow. "Montenegro needs stability and peace, and we believe that a strengthened Government will work even more successfully", announced Vučurović.
BS received a signal to cut the umbilical cord that binds her to DPS
Spajić previously said that he has nothing against the Bosniac Party (BS) entering the reconstructed Government, which the Democrats and the Democratic People's Party (DNP) oppose.
The Democrats, due to disagreements with PES regarding the security sector, pledged their support to the Government until IBAR is obtained and reiterated that they will not support the entry of BS into the reconstructed Government. The Presidency of the Democrats said that their decision to provide temporary support is based on the fact that they do not threaten European integration and IBAR in any way.
Pantelić says that BS, with the explicit support of European and American allies to Spajić's government, directly received the signal to break the "umbilical cord" that tied it to DPS and to enter the reconstructed government.
"The entry of BS into the executive branch is the most suitable for the Europe Now Movement (PES) because it reduces, conditionally speaking, the blackmailing power of the Democrats and the DNP", he assessed.
He believes that Spajić has no reason not to carry out the promised reconstruction of the Government and that it is in his interest to have all constituents in the cabinet: the more of them, the safer his position.
"Also, it is not in the interest of PES to go for new elections because this Government cannot introduce Montenegro into the EU, but it can close almost all, if not all, chapters in the negotiation process. In other words, this Government and this ruling majority, due to circumstances, can enter as the most successful and most significant in the history of Montenegro", he said.
He says that all the partners in the 44th Government should keep this in mind and not let "the tree obscure their view of the forest".
Kovačević believes that, despite the EU's evident effort to help and facilitate Montenegro as much as possible, and despite the optimism spread by the authorities, whether Montenegro will be able to fulfill the target by the summer is by no means a foregone conclusion.
"At best, we will get IBAR in June. But even in a less optimistic scenario, no one will 'blow the ball' for us and say 'June is over, no more', but unfinished tasks will be diplomatically highlighted and new deadlines will be given," she says.
He reminds that more than one third of the transitional benchmarks have not been met, and they include the improvement and adoption of laws and strategies, and measurable positive steps in numerous areas.
"Objectively speaking, it will not even be possible for Montenegro to fully meet all the transitional criteria in the short term, a realistically achievable goal is to move things forward as much as possible, and to transfer the remaining obligations to the final criteria. This effort of ours will be appreciated both at the technical and political level, both by the European Commission and by the member states," Kovačević said.
Chapters 23 (judiciary and fundamental rights) and 24 (justice, freedom and security) have a total of 83 temporary benchmarks, of which, according to recent informal assessments by the European Commission, 31 have not been met. A "Vijesti" source familiar with the negotiation process said on Monday that it is necessary for Montenegro to fulfill at least some temporary benchmarks, such as the adoption of media laws, at least one more law under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Justice, as well as the possible initiation of another investigation related to high corruption.
The EU does not want Orban to take credit for closing the chapter with Podgorica
Pantelić indicates that the Belgian presidency wants to leave a visible mark in the enlargement process by starting the process of closing the chapter with Montenegro during their mandate.
"In this business, they have a great ally in the most important members of the EU, which the Hungarian prime minister would like to avoid Viktor Orban credits himself with the fact that during his presidency the process of closing the chapter with Podgorica began. In order for the Belgians to be in a position to fulfill their goal, Montenegro must do everything that was agreed in the next few weeks from the so-called the European reform agenda", Pantelić explained.
Milica Kovačević points out that receiving IBAR in June would undoubtedly represent a success and strengthen the position of Spajić, who tied numerous decisions to such a positive outcome.
"However, given the different possible scenarios, the outcome may not be so simple. And the accumulated political problems in the government will have to be solved, with or without IBAR", Kovačević said in response to the question of what the political position of Spajić will be if he receives IBAR by the summer, by October the construction of the highway starts or is certain to begin and increase wages and pensions as promised.
Spajić skilfully uses the desire of most parties to be in power
Milica Kovačević points out that the tendency in certain departments to prepare important strategic documents and laws in the field of justice, the fight against corruption and the media in a superficial and low-quality manner is worrying.
He warns that such an approach will certainly create problems in future application, and it will hardly go unnoticed by interested actors in the EU.
"In desirable democratic circumstances, getting support in the parliament should depend on the quality of those proposals. Spajić, however, correctly assesses the current political environment in which it is very inconvenient for all political actors not to support the reform that leads to the acceleration of negotiations, which is the expectation of almost all voters. Also, he very skilfully uses the undisguised desire of the majority of political subjects to remain or become part of the government. In the short term, this can lead to results, but in the long term, it is important for democracy that there is a strong opposition, instead of a waiting list for a piece of power," Kovačević said.
It is wrong to leave the entire security sector to one party
Commenting on the conflict between the Democrats and PES, Pantelić says that the current crisis is the product of the political inexperience of Prime Minister Spajić, who for inexplicable reasons handed over the entire military-police-security sector to the Democrats.
"(Aleksa) Bečič and (Boris) Bogdanović, as much more experienced and trained politicians, accepted a disproportionate gift with open arms, and it is logical that they do not allow Spajić to behave in a childish style: 'puj pike is not valid'. I do not believe that in the near future in Montenegro, one party will control the ministry of defense, police and security services. It is an anomaly, it is not good for the development of a democratic society and therefore it should be corrected as soon as possible", he said.
He believes that it would be a great shame if there was a definitive split between PES and Democratic Montenegro "because together they are an excellent political antibiotic for parties that would continue to fight identity battles since they do not fall for their provocations".
Disagreements between PES and the Democrats regarding the security sector have been going on since December, and relations between them worsened after the Government last week elected Aleksandar Radović as acting director of the police on the proposal of the Prime Minister, and rejected the proposal of the Minister of the Interior Danilo Saranović (Democrat) to appointed police official Lazar Šćepanović to that position.
Democrats and a number of lawyers say that the Government thereby violated the Law on Internal Affairs, which stipulates that the acting director of the police is chosen by the Government on the proposal of the Minister of Internal Affairs, not the Prime Minister. PES, however, claim that the Government does not have to accept the minister's proposal.
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