Arming Serbia will cost the country dearly, because in this way it only masks the fact that, as a result of the dictatorship, its civil and social being is collapsing.
This is what a retired general and geopolitical analyst assessed for "Vijesti". Blagoje Grahovac, commenting on the announcement of the President of Serbia Aleksandar Vučić that in two months he will sign a contract for the purchase of French-made "Rafal" aircraft and his statement that in this way "Serbia becomes the strongest power not only in the Balkans but also beyond".
Judging by Vučić's words, these are airplanes that are "probably the most expensive in the whole world."
"And not used, but new. When I say the most expensive in the whole world, they are not like the F-35. Those are better planes than the F-16. Both more expensive and better. They're not like the F-35 or the F-22, but still. These are the best planes with the most modern systems. That's 4 plus, plus generations, ahead of our MIGs and everything else. And by their radar capabilities, and by the missiles they retain, and not always the best meteors, but MIG missiles," said Vučić.
Montenegro: Rattling weapons
This opens the question of whether this announcement represents a danger for the region and Montenegro.
The Atlantic Alliance of Montenegro (ASCG) points out that the announcement by the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, that he will sign the contract for the purchase of aircraft is not what worries him, but that it is the rhetoric of politicians, who "use this purchase for populist purposes, whether it is pre-election activities or gaining public opinion for political goals".
"We know very well that any rattling of weapons or threats of weapons and force in the region has not brought anyone anything good," this organization says.
The ASCG notes that there are currently several processes of strengthening national defense capacities in the neighborhood, and that above all it is about investments in defense by Croatia and Serbia.
"On the one hand, Croatia, although it is part of a collective security system, has long since recognized that it has insufficient capacities to protect its airspace and therefore has clearly expressed its desire to improve these capacities, first of all through the acquisition of a squadron of fighter planes, and in the future through the acquisition of modern anti-aircraft defense systems", this organization explains.
According to their opinion, there are three basic reasons for this.
"First of all, Croatia wants to improve its national defense capabilities, then it wants to make a significant contribution to the collective defense system, and, no less important, Croatia wants to continue the continuous process of training and creating fighter pilots, because it is a process that once if it is interrupted, it takes a long time to be established again", ASCG assesses.
In the announcement of the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, about the signing of the contract for the purchase of 12 French "Rafala" planes, ASCG does not see anything controversial because, as they explain, "Serbia has declared itself as a neutral country, and as such it must allocate far more funds for its own defense".
"After the non-transparent acquisition of a large contingent of weapons from Russia, Belarus and Cyprus, which are of very questionable capabilities, Serbia is increasingly turning to the acquisition of Western technology. In both of these processes of acquiring a squadron of fighter planes, both by Croatia and by Serbia, we do not see anything disturbing. It is a completely normal thing to invest more in the defense system these days, and we hope that all this technology will only serve the purpose of defending those countries," the organization points out.
BiH: Security dilemma
Any mention of the purchase of new weapons in the Balkans raises the question of whether the stability of the region is threatened. This was also the case with last week's story that Serbia is acquiring French "Rafale" fighter jets. The public is concerned both in the region and in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
"The fact is that any arming in the region leads to something that is a security dilemma, since there is no essential trust between the states of the region - then each state in the region is precisely calculating why the other is arming itself. If we keep in mind that this is about the potential purchase of 'rifles' by Serbia, bearing in mind the role of Serbia in the region in the last 30 years, then it certainly cannot be interpreted as a gesture of sending a message of peace, etc. Further, if we take into account the structure of the Government of Serbia, the fact that the new prime minister is someone who said that Serbia will return to Kosovo, the region cannot help but be worried about that," says the dean of the Faculty of Political Sciences in Sarajevo, prof. Ph.D Sead Turčalo.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić announced the signing of a contract on the supply of French "bursts" in two months. He assessed that "it is extremely important on multiple levels" for Serbia. The Ministry of Defense of Serbia denied the possibility of changing the military orientation.
"The purchase of 'rifles' is not an act of disrespect for Serbia's military neutrality, but an act of responsibility for the defense of the country and the safety of all our citizens," the Ministry announced.
Professor Turčalo points out that when neutrality is declared, that neutrality should be confirmed by someone at an international level.
"Neutrality does not only mean that you do not join any alliances - neither with the East, nor with Russia, nor with the West, that is, with NATO, you do not have some kind of institutional relationship, which is absolutely not true in the case of Serbia," says Turčalo.
The dean of the Faculty of Criminology, Criminology and Security Studies of the University of Sarajevo, prof. Ph.D Jasmin Ahić.
"It is disturbing for the reason that it comes as one of the measures that go along with the previous ones that concern the political processes themselves, primarily referring to the introduction of regular military service and the specific acquisition of certain weapons, in this case these planes, which would bring a certain kind of advantage in regional military security in the area of Southeastern Europe. "Regardless of the tactical moves within regional and state structures and the overall situation, the possession of certain weapons and tools that can bring objective superiority on the ground, such as such planes, are an alarm," says Ahić.
Political analyst from Croatia Davor Djenero says that grades should wait.
"We will see if there will be anything from the 'burst', at least as long as Serbia insists on avoiding the harmonization of its foreign policy with the common policy of the EU. It should be known that Vučić continues the policy of vassal relations towards Putin's regime, and that Russia is increasingly antagonistic towards France. "The decision on the transfer of this kind of technology cannot be made without the consent of NATO, so we have to wait for Munchausen's statements from Belgrade to be confirmed by someone from the French establishment", points out Gjenero.
Recalling how MIGs were raised along the border with Kosovo, Gjenero points out that the story of "bursts" is clearly a threat to the stability of the region.
"The only rational policy in the Balkans was the policy of demilitarization, when we could say with relief that perhaps the will of politicians for war exists, but that the army has nothing to war with. Any change in that paradigm, especially when it comes to Serbia, which is not under the control of international alliances (NATO), is very dangerous, because Vucic's political rhetoric is no more peace-building than Milosevic's was in the late 80s and early 90s, on the contrary ", concludes Gjenero.
Let us remind you that Croatia also bought the French "Rafale" fighter planes earlier, at a price of almost one billion euros. The first six, out of a total of 12, fighter planes will arrive in Croatia this spring. The other six will fly by the beginning of next year when the training of the other Croatian pilots is completed, according to the announcement of the Croatian Ministry of Defense.
Serbia: Approaching the West
According to data from the Stockholm International Research Institute, Serbia invests the most in weapons and the military in the Western Balkans. From 2018 to 2022, it allocated more than 1,4 billion dollars for this purpose.
Regional media were very interested in this announcement by Vučić, so many portals wrote about it and asked what exactly Vučić was preparing for, and whether the arming of the Serbian Army represented a potential threat and destabilization of the region.
Military analyst Aleksandar Radić however, he believes that the aforementioned purchase stabilizes the region - indirectly.
"Actually, these are the moves made by Vučić in order to get closer to the forces he cares about at the given moment. He leads a policy marked by terrible propaganda campaigns that made the people hate NATO. Anti-Western ideas promoted by tabloids and part of television with national frequencies have been a constant since 2012. Even F-16 planes from Aviano came to us and landed on Batajnica before that and there were no major political consequences or drama. The moment the state mechanisms started creating an anti-Western atmosphere, a picture was determined in which it is a taboo subject to approach the West when the people don't like it, and you actually have to do it".
Radić also explains that the purchase of weapons is a clear mechanism.
"The 'burst' is not bought because we are going to bombard Zagreb with it, but because it is a means of gaining Macron's support for Vučić. I think it's the other way around. We are in the NATO environment. Our military production is based on Western components. We depend on coexistence with the real environment of NATO and the EU", says the military analyst.
Radić also reminds that Vučić mentioned the possibility of purchasing "bursts" even before the representatives of Croatia expressed their interest and signed the contract.
"Croatia did have a position at that moment, they signed the contract and are implementing it, but the idea in Serbia to buy 'bursts' is not from yesterday. We had the first signals that the 'burst' was an option before or around the time when the Croats started talking about it as well," says Radić.
He adds that Serbia cannot be compared with Croatia, since it is a member of NATO.
"According to the procedures, it is clear that we cannot have some of the resources that NATO has. We cannot get the most powerful variant of the plane. Although the planes are new, we will not have the opportunity for our plane to be dominant in relation to the Croatian one for a very simple reason - we are not members of NATO. They are now even more rigid than before. You have the 'rules of the game' defined in the alliance, i.e. what a country that is not a NATO member can have. That's why we can't get into a position to be superior to their members", emphasizes Radić.
As he adds, the acquisition of weapons is not a topic that needs to be explained to public opinion, but concrete steps are being taken, but also that because of this, a double image is created.
"Arming and modernization is not a consequence of actual preparations of the army for specific tasks and threats to other countries, but an expression of political needs. Buying weapons is a means of gaining the support and attention of great powers. Serbia is not a precedent. In many countries of the world, money was spent on armaments when you want to make your life beautiful," says Radić and adds that as a form of protection against criticism, anyone who questions the moves of the state leadership is criticized as someone who is against the strengthening of their country and the Serbian Armed Forces.
Radić points out that his opinion is somewhat confirmed by the "very aggressive and unpleasant attitude" of the Ministry of Defense towards the media and public interest, which on April 10 appealed to all political actors in the country to leave defense issues out of their daily political agendas and to unite around national and security interests of the Republic of Serbia.
In the announcement, it was pointed out that they believe that the evaluations made in public that the procurement in question represents an alleged violation of the military neutrality of the Republic of Serbia are extremely unfounded and incompetent, and that the only reason for such public statements is to create artificial publicity and deceive the public.
"Those of us who consider it to be a rapprochement with the West are treated as unfounded and incompetent," concludes Radić.
Vučurović: There is no danger from Serbia
MP of the ruling New Serbian Democracy (NSD) Jovan Vučurović told "VIjesta" that he does not see how arming Serbia can be a danger for Montenegro.
"We have been in the same country with Serbia for almost a hundred years, and it is good that we have a country in our environment, which is friendly to us, and which is developing its military potential. Also, here some forget, intentionally or not, that Serbs represent more than a third of the citizens of Montenegro, that in our neighborhood is the Republika Srpska and that all these are facts that say that the Serbian people are the guarantor of stability and peace in this area of Europe, and not a threat to anyone," he believes.
Vučurović points out that "Serbia has developed excellent relations with both the East and the West", and he explains his claim by the fact that "in its armament it has Russian Migs, and it will also have French "bursts", just as it has Chinese weapons in the air defense system, and with all that and what is produced in Serbia itself".
"If that country was a threat to someone, it certainly wouldn't have such support from all sides. Therefore, Serbia is completely legitimately building and developing its defense power and thereby showing its responsibility towards itself, its neighbors and its people", he concludes.
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