Right-wing parties in power cannot threaten Montenegro's path to the European Union (EU), former Montenegrin Foreign Minister Srđan Darmanović said, while the former head of Croatian diplomacy, Vesna Pusić, emphasized the importance of the continuity of the negotiating structure for success on the European path.
Pusić and Darmanović said this in the proudcast that the Center for Civic Education (CGO) realizes in partnership with the MINA agency and the Fridrih Ebert Foundation (FES).
Pusić believes that it would be very important for the region if Montenegro became a member of the EU.
"Montenegro is very important for the stability and security of the entire Western Balkans or Southeastern Europe," Pusić said.
As she said, it is worrisome that, on the one hand, someone repeats that they are in favor of Montenegro's membership in the EU, and that the composition of the negotiating team is constantly changing and that politicians are being "pushed" into that structure instead of high professional civil servants.
Pusić emphasized that the negotiation process is very complicated and difficult technically, but also politically.
"If the EU does not see that there is one systematic work, but that every year or two the entire team and composition of the negotiating team changes, I would say that, on the one hand, you are claiming - we are for membership, and on the other hand, you are working very effectively on that this does not happen", said Pusić.
That is why, she believes, it would be important to take advantage of the current moment and maintain continuity and start looking at those things that are important for Montenegro in the negotiations.
Pusić stated that these things are, for example, the observation of which countries have received exceptions to some rules that would correspond to Montenegro as well or which countries have received a postponement of the deadlines for the implementation and application of some European laws.
"There are a number of things that would have to be an integral part of the continuity of the negotiating team and the negotiations themselves, so that they would have a chance of success and that all those who claim to be in favor of Montenegro joining the EU would have some credibility," Pusić pointed out.
She said that it would not be the first time that Montenegro missed the opportunity for EU membership.
"It has already happened a couple of times - now or never, that is, that window that represented a chance, which was missed and it closed. Both in 2019 and 2020, everyone thought that Montenegro would quickly become a member of the EU," Pusić said.
"It is good that the government is changing, but the only question is why. Therefore, the old government did not fall because of corruption, although it was repeated a lot, but it fell because of its pro-European orientation", stated Pusić.
As she said, this is a problem in looking at the actors of the current government.
She emphasized that it is true that there is a certain political will in Montenegro.
"Entering the EU involves meeting a lot of criteria, a lot of different things, but it is a political decision of both the country and the community, therefore the EU itself," explained Pusić.
She pointed out that, according to the current rules, every country that joins the EU has the right of veto in the European Council.
"Anything can be done there, as we see that Orban is doing wonders for the EU, collecting money on the one hand, and blocking many decisions that normally have support in the EU. So the EU institutions are very careful," Pusić said.
Darmanović, speaking about whether the growth of the right in Montenegro could threaten the path to the EU, assessed that this cannot happen.
"I think not, or I hope not. As you can see, one of the two parties that are very right-wing claims to be a big supporter of the EU," added Darmanović.
He reminded that the President of the Assembly Andrija Mandić recently triumphantly declared that Montenegro will be the next member of the EU.
"So they are also looking for their own ways. In our society, you have more than 70 percent support of the public opinion for EU membership, it is the only idea that wins a convincing victory in Montenegro when you confront it with other ideas," said Darmanović.
As he stated, almost all participants in the political spectrum in Montenegro are in favor of EU membership.
"So I hope that, nevertheless, the right wing in power will not be a factor preventing the path to the EU - not membership, because we are far from membership," Darmanović stressed.
He pointed out that the question is what will be the influence from Serbia and whether it will actively use its proxies to complicate things in Montenegro when it comes to the European agenda, adding that the Russian factor should not be ignored either.
Darmanović said that the growth of the right is connected to several factors, which are also global.
"The crisis of 2008, the process of globalization, the migratory wave after the Arab Spring, led to the fact that the right-wing parties showed a certain alternative in relation, not only to the centrist parties of the left and right, but that they are in some way a challenge to the democratic order" , explained Darmanović.
As he said, the narrative of the right-wing parties is largely a challenge to the fundamental principles of a democratic society.
According to Darmanović, those parties have softened their views on the EU and are no longer "exiters", but their views on minorities, women's and LGBT rights, policies conducted at the national level, can lead to endangerment of fundamental democratic institutions.
"The American election, when this issue is on the table, will have a big impact. It doesn't matter how those elections will end," Darmanović added.
Speaking about the changes in Montenegro, he pointed out that there is no longer a dominant party and that no party wins more than 25-26 percent of the votes in the elections, which, as he stated, forces the participants to negotiate, compromise and make concessions.
"Governments today in Sweden and Finland depend on right-wing parties, but these are different environments, different countries, democracy is not questioned there," Darmanović said.
He, speaking about receiving the Report on fulfillment of temporary benchmarks (IBAR) in June, said that he believes that Montenegro "will get IBAR sooner than not".
Darmanović reminded that some appointments in the judiciary have been completed, stressing that there is no doubt that party negotiations are behind some of these appointments.
According to him, the appointment of judges of the Constitutional Court has always been the subject of party negotiations, and from the moment when it was entered into the Constitution that a two-thirds majority is required for the election of judges, the ruling coalition alone is never enough.
"And now for an institution, which should be a model of independence, because it deals with the defense of the Constitution and the constitutional system, you have negotiations that, I guess, look like party representatives sit down and say - there are seven judges, and the ruling representatives probably say - OK , four ours, three yours," Darmanović said.
He added that in the Balkans and in Montenegro, high court appointments often take place in such a way.
"Regardless, the European bodies were satisfied that these appointments were made," Darmanović said.
"I think that the EU wants, if at all possible, at least one positive example from the Balkans and that Montenegro is a serious candidate in that sense," Darmanović said.
He pointed out that the Russian-Ukrainian war opened everyone's eyes to the fact that there is a dangerous revisionist force in Europe and that the EU has probably become more geopolitical than before because, if a large country like Ukraine is attacked, anything can happen anywhere in the region.
"And the Balkans, like all, especially majority Orthodox, countries, are extremely sensitive to Russian influence," Darmanović pointed out.
He pointed out that there is one obstacle in the EU, which is the way of decision-making, because each member has the right of veto, but he also reminded that the French President Emmanuel Macron has been insisting for a long time that this must be changed.
As he assessed, it is possible that Montenegro will not suffer even in that scenario, because it is so small that the EU can, in some way, accept it into its system, if the country completes its "domestic tasks".
Darmanović pointed out that the votes concerning European values, although they have no practical significance, speak volumes, stating that the representative of the ruling party could not raise his hand for the admission of Kosovo to the Council of Europe, because he did not have the strength or the party instructed him to do so.
"They will explain to the European partners that it is of no importance, that it is only for the internal electorate. But it's not quite like that," Darmanović said.
Speaking about the importance of the European project in the Western Balkans, Pusić said that the most important result of that project is the building of the state and institutions.
As she said, the EU's long expansion to the Western Balkans was not that important.
"I think that after Russia's aggression against Ukraine, it became significantly more important. In a way, it already gained importance in 2014, after the annexation of Crimea and the attack on Donbass, because from that time Russia began to see the EU as an enemy," explained Pusić.
According to her, the Western Balkans is the main area through which Russia conducts a kind of delegated conflict with the EU.
"By destabilizing the Western Balkans, Russia is destabilizing Europe. This is also clear to Europe, and for this reason, the Western Balkans is once again becoming much more important in the European perspective and membership," Pusić assessed.
Referring to the recently concluded elections in Croatia, she stated that no one completely lost or won in those elections, noting that the result did not surprise her at all.
Pusić assessed that the most likely outcome is that the HDZ will form a parliamentary majority and a government with the Homeland Movement, which, as she said, "is trash from the HDZ and consists of people who left the HDZ because Plenković was too moderate for them ".
"I expect that they will form the majority and the government, and I don't expect it to last long," Pusić said.
She said that the Croatian case is specific and that it will be seen whether they will vote that way in the elections for the European Parliament, but also recalling some forecasts that indicate that the right will do very well in those elections.
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