Russia's invasion of Ukraine was used in Montenegro to deepen the already existing social polarization, and this topic is unreasonably connected with identity issues in the country.
This is what a diplomat and professor of international relations at Boston University told "Vijesti". Vesko Garcevic, commenting on how the war in Ukraine affected the socio-political conditions in Montenegro, that is, the divisions in Montenegrin society.
Garčević assessed that the truth is the first to die in this war, although, he says, at least in this case it is easy to recognize who is the aggressor and who is the victim of aggression.
The results of a public opinion survey presented in March by the Center for Democracy and Human Rights (CEDEM) show that 32,6 percent of citizens see the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine as Russia's aggression against Ukraine, and 29 percent as Russia's defense against NATO expansion.
"Vijesti" recently published a questionnaire on its portal, the aim of which was to examine the opinion of the public about the impact of the war in Ukraine on the division of society, on differences in social relations, and how the attitudes of political leaders and media reporting on the war influenced polarization.
Although it is not a representative sample, the largest number of responses conveys the same message - that society is divided into two camps, i.e. that those who identify themselves as Montenegrins support Ukrainians, and those who define themselves as Serbs - Russians.
AGGRESSION AND IDENTITY POLITICS
Out of 299 completed questionnaires, when asked whether you believe that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has had a noticeable impact on social divisions in Montenegro, 177 people answered "yes" and 122 answered "no".
Garčević points out that the Russian invasion is transferred to the context of identity politics in Montenegro, and that the Serbian Orthodox Church (SPC) identifies the country with Ukraine, predicting a similar fate for it.
"Given the sense of historical, cultural and religious closeness that erases the objective perception of the situation for many citizens, such arguments are accepted with open arms, as evidenced by public opinion surveys on the attitudes of Montenegrin citizens towards the war in Ukraine," he points out.
The interlocutor states that on the other side are citizens who believe that Montenegro's choice to support Ukraine is morally correct, in accordance with the country's strategic determination and the values inherited by the European Union (EU).
"They perceive such attitudes as an intention to erase their identity and the pro-Western orientation of the state, which was also the case with Ukraine. This provokes their strong opposition", claims Garčević.
The CEDEM survey showed that 25,7 percent of citizens believe that everyone is to blame for the outbreak of war in Ukraine, 19,24 percent that Russia and its president are to blame. Vladimir Putin, while 19,6 percent have no opinion.
To the question from the "Vijesti" questionnaire, how the Russian aggression against Ukraine affected public opinion and social relations, the answers are very different.
Part of those who answered the questionnaire claims that the war clearly divided people in Montenegro and that most of them took "diametrically opposite positions". Still others think that the division did not change the existing degree of polarization too much.
"It polarized society, citizens took firm, but diametrically opposed positions"; "Unquestioning execution of orders from the West by the authorities"; "The number of Putin's supporters increased, society became radicalized, or at least showed that it was radical before"; "Strengthening influence of Russia through their proxies in Montenegro, primarily through the SPC and political parties facing Russia, media such as RTCG, 'In4S', 'Borba', 'Prve TV', 'Adria TV'... ”; "It didn't affect at all"; "It did not affect the divisions that already exist"; "It had no effect, and if it did, it was very little"; "It didn't affect us, we have our own problems". These were some of the answers that "Vijesti" received.
There were also those who emphasized the economic consequences of the war on Montenegro, and there is also a part that denied that Russia carried out aggression against Ukraine, calling it a "special military operation", which is the official position of Moscow towards the conflict in Ukraine since its beginning in February 2022
"It is not Russian aggression, but a Russian special operation. Perhaps, according to you, the Nazis were allies at that time, and the Russians were aggressors"; "We lost the market where we exported the most, e.g. "Plantations", food products" - were some of the answers in the questionnaire.
POLITICIANS AND THE MEDIA ARE PART OF THE PROBLEM
Garčević assesses that there is no doubt that the statements of political leaders and the media coverage of the conflict influenced the division of Montenegrin society.
"The accessibility of pro-state Russian media in the Serbian language, as well as media from Serbia in the Montenegrin media space, which together with the SPC and certain Montenegrin and Serbian politicians promote Russian arguments and values, blurs the picture of who is responsible for the war in Ukraine," he says.
The interlocutor explains that such an argument is an attempt to "Russify" Montenegro, and that a false dilemma is being created about who is responsible for the war in Ukraine. He adds that the idea that Montenegro is on the "wrong side" is being popularized because it stood by Ukraine.
"Promoters of such views and those who oppose them are put on the same level. An approach is being promoted that equates support to the aggressor and support to the victim in a moral sense," Garčević says.
His opinion is shared by the majority of those who filled out the "Vijesti" questionnaire. The prevailing view is that Montenegrin politicians formed their opinions according to the messages of foreign officials who represented one side or the other, and that the media reported depending on the side favored by that media house.
"Politicians sent messages in the same way (pro-Serbian for Russia, and pro-Montenegrin for Ukraine). The media whose founder and owner in Serbia reported from the Russian context, while the latter tried to report objectively. Even RTCG Public Service reported from the Russian context because some editors and journalists are pro-Russian, so they glorified Russia's strength in their reports"; "Exclusively in a way that is useful to them"; "One pandering to the West, the other pandering to the electorate that supports the latter"; "According to how their political tutors from abroad view it" - are some of the answers.
A public opinion survey by the Center for Democratic Transition (CDT) and "Damar" from December last year shows that 43 percent of citizens believe in the narrative that Russia is leading the fight against Nazism in Ukraine.
According to their research presented in March 2023, 20 percent of respondents believed in the same narrative.
Russian President Putin has repeatedly emphasized that the main reason for the invasion is the "denazification of Ukraine".
HOW TO REDUCE DIVISIONS
Asked how the effects of the polarization of society in Montenegro can be mitigated, which, in his opinion, was also contributed to by Russia's aggression against Ukraine, Garčević says that the answer to that question is complex.
"It is very easy to say that it is necessary to build a culture of objective observation of facts and a culture of dialogue. Many Montenegrin citizens cannot find an answer for the contradictory positions they advocate: on the one hand, the vast majority wants Montenegro to be part of the EU, so that a number of those same EU supporters would be negatively determined by the EU's policy in relation to Russia, but not only to Russia," he says.
The diplomat and professor points out that this duality "is not from yesterday" and that a much more substantive and serious policy is needed, which, he says, would demystify myths and clarify what inclusion in Euro-Atlantic integration means for Montenegro.
Those who filled out the "Vijesti" questionnaire offer some suggestions similar to Garčević's, but also some others.
"Fight against disinformation, sanctions against portals that spread disinformation"; "To turn to ourselves and solve our problems, of which we have too many"; "To withdraw the sanctions measures against Russia, and to stop supporting one or the other and not to interfere in the course of the conflict"; "Politicians should advocate the negotiations between the Ukrainian and Russian sides that have started, without the interference of third parties"; "For all parties to clearly condemn Russian aggression, to influence their electorate"; "For the government to stop being America's puppet and toy, to conduct its own policy as a sovereign state that will serve only the citizens"...
Arguments on the bus, "deleting" friends...
The traditional ties that Montenegro has with Russia, as well as the official foreign policy of the country, which clearly condemns aggression against Ukraine, create differences in the opinion of citizens, which can lead to tensions. This results from the answers to the "Vijesti" questionnaire.
When asked to describe personal experiences or situations in which the discussion of the conflict in Ukraine led to disagreements, those who filled out the questionnaire cited various cases - from fights on the bus to "deleting" friends on social networks.
"I witnessed an argument on the bus where the driver wanted to throw out the woman when he heard that she was Ukrainian because she didn't have a ticket, then some passengers rebelled and paid for the ticket. An argument also arose when the driver said that he would have let her go if she was Russian"; "My first neighbor, unfortunately an educated man, says that the Russians did not free Europe from racism, although Europe will never forget it"; "Well, I don't have personal experience specifically related to that, because I don't discuss politics on the street. But, well, it did lead me to delete certain people from my profiles on social networks..."; "I had an argument with another because he supports Putin" - read some of the answers.
Garčević: The war homogenized both camps
Vesko Garčević assesses that the war in Ukraine did not have a significant negative impact on society's perception of NATO, but that the differences between those who are for and against this military alliance have further deepened.
"The perception remained similar, but the differences between those who are against NATO and those who support the Euro-Atlantic path of Montenegro have deepened. "Critical tones about NATO come from those who did not perceive NATO positively even before the invasion," he explains.
He says that "blaming NATO" is designed to justify the invasion of Ukraine.
"The strength of support for NATO has increased among those who previously advocated the need for Montenegro to join Euro-Atlantic integration. It can hardly be said that one or the other side has significantly increased its base of support. Instead, there was a homogenization of groups because this issue is linked to other identity issues that dominate the public space of Montenegro," states Garčević.
In the regular annual report of NATO for 2023, published on the website of the Alliance, it is stated that 44 percent of the citizens of Montenegro would vote to leave the alliance, which is the highest percentage among all member countries.
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