The outcome of the recently held elections for the European Parliament (EP) will not result in any significant changes in the way the European Union (EU) functions, for which the issue of enlargement will remain among its priorities.
Former president of the Committee for International Relations of the Montenegrin Parliament and current head of the parliamentary group of the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) Andrija Nikolić, assesses that the "EU window" is open and that Montenegro should use the opportunity presented to it to become a member of that community, because, he says, nothing will drastically change in the approach of Brussels towards Podgorica after the European elections, unless it does something "mess up".
The conservative European People's Party (EPP) won the largest number of mandates in the EP elections, held from June 6 to 9, while far-right parties won significantly more seats than they had.
The biggest losers of the election are the French president Emanuel Macron and the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Macron's Revival party won 15 percent of the vote, compared to 32 percent for the National Gathering party. Marine Le Pen, which prompted the French head of state to call early parliamentary elections. In Germany, despite numerous scandals, including the cover-up of Nazism, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) won a higher percentage of the national vote (16 percent) than any of the three parties that make up Scholz's coalition. He therefore faces calls to call elections, like Macron.
Montenegro: Don't miss the opportunity
Nikolić told "Vijesti" that, regarding Montenegro and the EP elections, it should be remembered that we live in a time when, compared to the last two decades, the EU enlargement agenda is at the top of the community's priority list for the first time. He states that, due to the political needs related to the war in Ukraine, the Union lightly entered into a series of promises, such as the one that the country, "which is literally destroyed, should immediately enter the EU". Nikolić assesses that things look like Brussels is more ready for the integration of the Western Balkans than the countries of the Western Balkans are for EU integration.
"This further means that the EU window is open, and that we should use the opportunity wisely, because nothing will drastically change in Brussels' approach to Podgorica after the European elections, unless we mess something up. Obviously, they need a successful European story in the Western Balkans, and that Montenegro is a suitable candidate. It is up to us not to miss the opportunity, and to move from the euphoria of integration in words to actions that will lead us to the goal - membership in the EU", says the representative of the strongest opposition party in Montenegro.
Nikolić says that he thinks that the current ruling majority cannot do that job, and that from today's perspective, the most reasonable idea is to organize general elections after receiving the Report on the Assessment of the Fulfillment of Temporary Criteria in Chapters 23 and 24 (IBAR), which is expected soon. by the end of the year, and after that he forms a "broad European government that will introduce the country into the EU".
He said that "no spectacular changes" took place in the EP elections compared to the situation in the previous five-year mandate of that parliament. He says that the political axis in the EP will still be made up of the trio - the EPP, the European Social Democrats (S&D), and the liberal-democratic grouping "Renew Europe".
"They have the necessary supermajority in the EP, which is a condition for a simpler election of the president of the European Commission and more comfortable making of political decisions, with the condition that party discipline is preserved in all three parliamentary clubs," the interlocutor notes.
Nikolić says that there have been many uninformed comments or spins about how the right has strengthened in the EP, which, according to him, is incorrect "and corresponds only to the Russian totalitarian regime that is dominantly creating a campaign of false information in Europe".
"I do not expect that the most numerous EPP, or some of its parts in the EP, would agree to institutional cooperation with the radical right-wingers who are gathered in the 'Democracy and Identity' group, which could potentially call into question the enlargement policy, and in general the concept on which it is based. the EU was born," he said.
The MP of DPS says that, on the other hand, it is true that a number of members of the "club of friends (of the President of Russia) Vladimir Putin, before all those in Austria and France, achieved notable results" in the EP elections.
"But I don't think there is any substantial potential to change the course of state politics, especially in France where the democratic forces are fighting against Marine Le Pen exclusively through a specific model of the electoral system that protects democratic institutions, so that in the second election round everyone unites against of her 'National Gathering'", states Nikolić.
360 million Europeans had the right to vote in the elections, who elected 720 MEPs.
Serbia: Some sad that the end of the EU was not played out
Serbia's European integration has completely stopped in the past three years, despite the authorities' claims that Serbia's strategic goal is to become a member of the EU. Despite the fact that there will be no dramatic changes in Brussels after the end of the EP elections, two key conditions remain for Serbia in the process of joining the EU and with the new European Commission - the normalization of relations with Kosovo and the joining of sanctions against Russia due to aggression against Ukraine, i.e. the complete harmonization of foreign policy of Serbia with EU policy.
Sofia Popović, a journalist of the "European Western Balkans" (EWB) portal, believes that the results of the EP elections are such that they do not bring any dramatic change in the way the EU will function in the future.
"The largest number of votes went to the parties of the center, those who have been governing the EU for decades. It was precisely these centrist currents in their campaign that paid attention to the enlargement policy and announced that the future European Commission would be an 'enlargement commission'. For the fact that enlargement is now back in the game, we can 'thank' the Russian aggression against Ukraine, which definitely changed the way the EU thinks about enlargement. Over the past two and a half years, truly historic things have happened on this front, for which the 'old' European Commission was not ready. Just five years ago, the enlargement department, as the least important for the EU, was assigned to the Hungarian commissioner. As things stand now, it will be one of the most attractive positions for which the important western countries of the EU will fight," Popović points out.
As he explains, the impression is that it was agreed at the highest political level that the new Brussels institutions will have the task of preparing the EU for a new enlargement.
"This means that the doors of the EU have opened again after many years, and those who are ready for membership will be able to take advantage of this opportunity. Montenegro certainly has the best chance of becoming a member state, a small country that is not burdened by various types of bilateral disputes and that has moved the furthest in the enlargement process. If the authorities in Podgorica continue with the reform process, there are huge chances that this country will become the first success story from the Western Balkans," says Popović.
It is interesting that the President of Serbia joined the election night organized by the EU Delegation in Serbia and the "European Western Balkans" portal on June 16 in Belgrade. Aleksandar Vučić. At that event, a simulation of voting for one of the seven parliamentary groups in the EP was organized, and the President of Serbia also symbolically voted.
Lawyer Milan Antonijevic says that Serbia followed the EP elections with attention last weekend, "at least that part of the Serbian public that sees the EU as a development opportunity for Serbia".
"We welcomed the results in Belgrade at an event organized by the EU Delegation in Serbia, which was attended by the President of Serbia, who, along with the Minister (Goran) Vesić, defended the colors of Serbia and the interest of our state authorities in this part of European institutions. Let's go back to your question about the effects of these elections on Serbia, and also on the Western Balkans, where there need not be any negative consequences for the EU integration of our region, on the contrary. "Many of the enlargement policies that the European Commission previously implemented had reservations, and perhaps a small hidden fear of the European administration of the reaction of the European public to the announcements of joining the Union of countries that the average EU citizen has not even heard of," says Antonijević.
As he points out, now, after the new convocation of the parliament, as well as the future composition of the European Commission, the importance of the work of Serbian diplomacy will further increase to clarify the changes in the region, that the Western Balkans is not a new problem brought into the EU, but that regional hostilities long buried, that we are not a powder keg, but that we can bring a little new energy, as small as we really are.
"Slightly more than fifteen million citizens remained in our region outside the borders of the EU in countries that are standing on the European road and waiting for accession, which is no effort for a community of states in which more than 400 million people had the right to vote in these EP elections . The only change that could be seen in Serbia was at the Business Forum France - Western Balkans, which was organized the previous days by the Serbian-French Chamber of Commerce and their embassy. Namely, the Minister for Foreign Trade and Francophonie and the French Abroad was supposed to be with us at the event, who at the last moment, due to the dissolution of the French Assembly and poor election results, had to cancel his visit to Belgrade", says Antonijević.
However, what is good in a way is that the talk of EU enlargement has returned to the agenda of the EU itself, and that is quite high, which was caused by Russia's attack on Ukraine and the numerous security challenges that war brought. Only now, along with the countries of the Western Balkans, Ukraine and Moldova, to which Russia is the first neighbor, have joined the queue for admission to the EU. The tentative date of acceptance that is being discussed is 2030.
Sofija Popović from EWB points out that "while in many candidate countries there is optimism that enlargement will be high on the agenda, in Serbia it is conspicuously absent".
"Even from the front pages of the pro-government tabloids the day after the European elections, as well as from the statements of state officials, one could conclude that part of the public here is sad that the extreme right-wingers did not end Europe as we know it today. There is no optimism because after two decades of the accession process, the question is to what extent Serbia today meets the basic criteria for EU membership in the area of the state of democracy and the rule of law. Trapped in the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, unwilling to comply with European sanctions, Serbia can only expect a standstill in the coming years, if the authorities in Belgrade do not change their current approach to the process," says Popović.
Minister of Foreign Affairs of Serbia Marko Djuric, told "Euronews Serbia" that the EP elections showed that there is a big difference between national policies in EU member countries and that citizens in those countries want somewhat different policies at the level of European institutions. As he added, Serbia will try to create a network of friends in the EP, but independently of that, it will accelerate reforms and be ready for the EU by 2027. According to him, Serbia has no formal obligation to impose sanctions on Russia, because it is not a member of the EU.
And the lawyer Milan Antonijević points out that "new connections with members of the European parliament should be built, we should monitor who will be our allies in the European integration of Serbia and reforms".
"Then also with the new European Commission, which is the first mirror brought to us by the EU, along with all the mirrors in which our reforms, rule of law, foreign policy and progress will be reflected and evaluated in each of the EU capitals," concludes Antonijević.
BiH: Fear that the EU will not call for genuine reforms
Whether the elections are held in the EU or in the USA, there are numerous and inexhaustible analyzes of the influence of future decision makers on the region, and especially on Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). It is the same this time. The sides that were cheered for are proverbially different. Bosniak political representatives wished for the same or a more liberal convocation of Brussels institutions, Serbs wished for a more right-wing one, and for Croats it was important that HDZ (Croatian Democratic Union) win.
It's a good day for the European People's Party (EPP), which won the European elections, the president of the European Commission said the morning after the counting.
"We are the strongest party, the anchor of stability. Together we will build a bastion against extremists from the left and the right. The EPP will protect the EU from populists", she was clear Ursula von der Lajen.
However, neither one nor the other nor the third in BiH are afraid of the left, the center or the right, but they wish that a voice does not come from Brussels that will request that BiH make some real reforms in order to continue progress on the EU path, because it is also the biggest It is clear to the layman that the current convocation of Brussels institutions gave BH a completely undeserved award. politicians, allowing BiH, on the basis of quasi-reforms, to obtain the status of a candidate country for EU membership. This was confirmed for "Oslobođenje" by an analyst of the Initiative for European Stability Adi Ćerimagić.
"If things get further complicated at the national levels in the Union, the talk of Union reform and enlargement could also come true. The EU has left the region in an unsettled state, in which it is not clear in which direction the region is going, and this will be a challenge not only for BiH and the region, but also for those in the EU who will have time to continue dealing with the region, and above all I mean the neighboring countries that have an interest regardless of what is happening in Paris, Berlin or Brussels", stated Ćerimagić.
Analysts point out that even the previous leaders of the Union have proven to be weak figures in terms of enlargement policy.
"For the pure reason that, unfortunately, for the last 20, 25 years, we have lacked a strategic policy towards the region. We have not seen any political will for a strategic political upheaval, neither towards Bosnia and Herzegovina, nor towards the regime in Serbia", he believes Bodo Weber, EU process analyst.
The result of such policies from the EU, Weber adds, is the simulation of new policies through falsification of progress reports, including the "green light" for candidate status for BiH.
"I am afraid that we will continue to see politics without a strategy, without clear leadership, and attempts at some fake 'peacement' arrangement and dirty deals with the political elites in BiH, just to make some fake progress, but which essentially undermines the reform path towards democracy and the rule of law," concluded Weber.
It would be very disastrous if within the EU we had as many leaders of right-wing countries as possible, given that they would find support in right-wing nationalist policies in Bosnia and Herzegovina, he believes. Harris Cried, general secretary of the European Movement in Bosnia and Herzegovina. He concludes that there remains hope that "the coming changes will not have serious consequences on decision-making", given that a general majority is needed for decision-making.
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