The reconstruction of the Government will increase the heterogeneity and inconsistency of the interests of its constituents and will inevitably have a negative impact on the fulfillment of Montenegro's foreign policy priorities, said assistant professor at the University of Donja Gorica, Nikoleta Đukanović.
She said that now the reconstruction situation is almost certain and she believes that it will happen in the near future.
As she said, considering that the majority in the parliament depends on the support of the parties of the former Democratic Front (DF), they consciously use the votes given to them by their voters and the position they have, "to extract as many benefits as possible that conflict with the interests of Montenegrins citizens".
"I think this because, according to all public opinion surveys, almost 80 percent of citizens want Montenegro to join the European Union (EU), and most of the programmatic and political goals proclaimed by the members of the DF are in contradiction with those integration processes, even though declaratively they all give support for EU membership", said Đukanović in an interview with the MINA Agency.
She believes that politically, Montenegro is still an insufficiently mature society, which does not support the programmatic orientations of political subjects, but individual preferences, certain narratives, and often the combination of political activists and personal interests of individuals.
"In any case, I believe that the reconstruction of the Government will only satisfy the deputies of the former DF coalition for a short time, but that in the long term it will further complicate the relations in the Government, increase the heterogeneity and inconsistency of the interests of its constituents, and inevitably have a negative impact on the fulfillment of the country's foreign policy priorities," she assessed. Djukanovic.
Answering the question of what the entry of the New Serbian Democracy and the Democratic People's Party into the executive power would mean and whether such a government would be stable and pro-European, she said that "we received an unequivocal message from the United States of America (USA) even earlier from Gabriel Escobar that DF and its members are not partners of the USA, because of the policies that are in their program content".
As Đukanović said, there were no such explicit messages from EU countries.
"But they always warned us about what our foreign policy commitment should be, if we want to continue progress in the integration process," Đukanović added.
When asked how likely it is that the Bosniak Party (BS) will enter the executive power, after the reconstruction of the Government, she replied that it was discussed and negotiated, but that she believes that this is another example of trade in which BS should replace Democrats.
"In order to again satisfy certain interests of Prime Minister (Milojko) Spajić, because there was no agreement between the Europe Now Movement (PES) and the Democrats on numerous issues," Đukanović stated.
According to her, in that case, again mathematically, and not responsibly and on the basis of political preferences, a number above 41 would be reached.
That way, as Đukanović added, citizens would get the message that everything is legitimate "as long as we can unite and defeat the political opponent".
"As a society, it is necessary for us to clearly define goals, to formulate policies that will lead us to their realization and to choose people of integrity who can implement these processes, and we do not need the division of functions by depth and breadth, in order to make up the existing situation and mocking the people, because it will distance us from the European path", said Đukanović.
She believes that minority parties should participate in every government in order to promote multiculturalism and multi-ethnic harmony, but not at any cost.
"If they participate in a process that is contrary to their essential civic interests, in that way they are jeopardizing the positions and values that we should achieve in the integration process," Đukanović stated.
Asked how she sees the current political situation in Montenegro and whether she thinks that the ruling parliamentary majority is stable, she said that the ruling majority shows stability in terms of respecting the cohesive element "which for them at the moment is the only exercise of power".
PES, as assessed by Đukanović, agreed to the reconstruction of the Government and the Resolution on Jasenovac, as compensation for the Resolution on Srebrenica, but also as a return service for support in the Assembly.
"I think that they are also aware that now is not a favorable period for them to enter new elections, especially after the results at the local level, which remind them that after 2020 there is no constant in political life and that the election result is the product of the performance of parliamentary and state functions , as well as the implementation of the promised policies", stated Đukanović.
She said that the stability of political conditions will also be affected by the development of the situation in the capital, where, as she added, the government crisis distracts attention from solving the issues of citizens who regularly pay dues and salaries to political representatives, and do not receive adequate commitment and focus on solving their needs. and the challenges they face.
"The problem is when we have a situation where political structures measure the necessity of entering the electoral process against their political predictions about the potential result of that process, and not against the needs of society to regulate life in a certain territory, whether it is a local or state level," Djukanovic said.
According to her, the result of such actions are negotiations of political parties that last until the last moment and agreeing to various compromises, not in relation to the program goals of those political participants, but solely on the basis of mathematics.
"Also, another outcome, but extremely important for me as a citizen, is the constant decline of citizens' trust in the electoral process, who increasingly believe that they are not voting for a good solution, but one that is less bad than someone else," said Đukanović.
In response to the question about the establishment of new parties, she said that, unfortunately, in Montenegro, the process of institutionalization of political parties has not yet been completed.
As Đukanović said, despite the fact that new political parties often arise, post-communist democracy in Montenegro is characterized by an insufficiently diversified and ideologically unestablished party system.
"On the other hand, we can hardly assume potential allies for the next election cycles", added Đukanović.
In Montenegro, as she assessed, coalitions are made only so that the parties can more easily get a larger number of mandates, and not because they have a similar programmatic and ideological profiling.
"That's why coalitions last so short, and that's why in the Parliament we have a handful of parliamentary clubs from one electoral list, while we also have cases where some parties from the same list are in power, and others are in the opposition," Đukanović said.
According to her, the emergence of new political parties can only further complicate the process of consolidation of the party system, further fragment the Parliament and make it even more complicated to reach stable governments in the future.
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"Nevertheless, unlike the dispersal of the political scene due to the emergence of new parties, the creation of an alliance like the new European Union is a novelty and can potentially contribute to the strengthening of pro-European forces, especially if it succeeds in being supra-party and not just a form that will only give a new name old and current practices", said Đukanović.
She said that, however, we should not expect a great result or a satisfactory coalition capacity, considering the burden they carry from participating in previous governments.
Đukanović, answering the question whether due to the adoption of the Resolution on Jasenovac, Croatia could block Montenegro on the EU path, said that the adoption of that document in the Montenegrin Parliament was not a surprise, bearing in mind the past efforts of the President of the Parliament Andrija Mandić to included in the agenda and adopted.
"That act shows the continuity of the policy consistency of the former DF towards the authorities in Belgrade, the disruption of relations with the countries in the region, primarily with Croatia, and the demonstration of its essential policy, which is very far from European priorities," said Đukanović.
She stated that, on the other hand, in order not to be deprived of support in the Parliament, the parties in the Government, with a few exceptions, voted for that resolution.
"Although we know that Montenegro received (undeservedly) unreserved (political) support for the adoption of the Report on the fulfillment of temporary criteria, now we see that the activities of the parliamentary majority can call into question even such favor", said Đukanović.
The negotiation process and EU integration, as she emphasized, implies both a political and a technical process.
"Even if we fulfill all the criteria and requirements that are expected of us, it is important to politically support and help that process," said Đukanović.
That is why, as she said, it is important to build and improve relations with the countries of the region and with EU members.
According to Đukanović, the integration of Montenegro into the EU is only used as a nice promise that citizens want to hear, and not as something that is really a guideline for all parties in power.
"It is fully expected that Croatia will react and potentially hinder Montenegro, which has so far shown that its capacities and scope in reforms are limited to the adoption of laws, which were adopted according to a disputed procedure, with even more disputed content," Đukanović assessed.
As she said, the cancellation of the visit of the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, to Montenegro is a clear warning sign to the Montenegrin authorities that the conduct of foreign policy in practice should not differ from that advocated by the majority in the Parliament.
"And that you cannot have two completely different foreign policy priorities, alternately work on them in order to satisfy different foreign factors," Đukanović said.
According to her, what is really worrisome is the strength and power of the anti-European currents in the Parliament, that by blackmailing them with support, they can achieve all their goals, even if they conflict with the European orientation of Montenegro.
"Although I believe that we will continue to have political support and affection from the EU, I think it is not good to support and feed retrograde and regressive forces that have long advocated anti-European narratives and are trying to further divide our society and distance it from the democratic world," said Đukanović.
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