The reconstruction of the Government is very certain because there are no more obstacles, and the ruling Europe Now Movement (PES) is looking at all the ways to make it happen, and to make the damage as small as possible, according to "Vijesti" interlocutors.
Docent at the University of Donja Gorica, Nikoleta Djukanovic says that the prime minister Milojko Spajic he looks reluctantly at the issue, but is ready to make concessions, as is his party, the Europe Now Movement (PES), in order for the government to survive.
"Previously, both the Prime Minister and PES agreed to many ultimatums, especially when we talk about the Resolution on Jasenovac. That, along with some other concessions, clearly shows the desire of both the Prime Minister and the PES for the Government to survive, regardless of what could be possible challenges if there is a reconstruction of the Government", said Đukanović.
The reconstruction of the Government, with the entry of constituents of the former Democratic Front (DF) into it - the New Serbian Democracy (NSD) and the Democratic People's Party (DNP), is foreseen by the coalition agreement signed during the formation of the new parliamentary majority and the new Government at the end of October last year. It is planned that the reconstruction will take place no later than the budget for 2025, which means by the end of this year.
Civic activist Milena Bešić she said that the leaders of both parties of the current coalition For the Future of Montenegro (ZBCG) - NSD and DNP, look very confident in their performances on the topic of reconstruction and are already presenting the next steps.
"I believe that the reconstruction of the Government will inevitably happen, and it is very possible that it will happen soon, as announced by Mr.Andrew) Mandic. In fact, I don't see any obstacles at the moment, because it looks like things have fallen into place", said Bešić and reminds that after voting for the Resolution on Srebrenica in the United Nations, the Assembly supported the laws by which the Spajić Government "won" a positive IBAR (Report on the assessment of the fulfillment of temporary benchmarks for chapters 23 and 24), and finally the Resolution on Jasenovac was adopted.
The ZBCG coalition raised the issue of reconstruction immediately at the end of last year, stating that this procedure should take place after the New Year holidays, a few months after that or in the first half of 2024. Spajić postponed it until receiving IBAR in June.
In recent days, ZBCG has been increasingly vocal about reconstruction.
The President of the Assembly Andrija Mandić said in an interview for Belgrade's "Politika" on Saturday that the reconstruction of the Government will happen very soon, already at the end of July.
Previously, on July 9, when he was a guest on TV Adria, he said "that the reconstruction can happen next week, and certainly by the end of July". He said that NSD in the Government will receive the Ministry of Education and departments of spatial planning and tourism, and DNP the position of Vice President and Minister of Transport, as stipulated in the coalition agreement. ZBCG currently supports the Government without participating in it.
"We signed a coalition agreement that foresees the reconstruction of the government. We made an agreement that was not logical when it was signed because the second most powerful political entity did not get a chance to be in power. We, as the parliamentary majority, have done a lot, we have done many things for which we are praised in Brussels and in the EU. We received a positive IBAR and we think that now is the moment for the coalition 'For the Future of Montenegro' to enter power," Mandić told Adria TV.
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He emphasized that it would be good if the Government expanded to include the Bosniak Party, which has been mentioned for several months as a possible part of Spajić's cabinet. The DNP opposes this, and the Democrats set a condition for BS - to dissolve the coalition with the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) in Bijelo Polje, form a government in that municipality with a majority from the state level, and break with the former system.
Prime Minister Milojko Spajić has not mentioned reconstruction recently, while he is a member of the PES Vasilije Carapić said last week at a press conference in the Parliament that it will be implemented in accordance with the coalition agreement.
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Nikoleta Đukanović believes that the fact that PES is mostly silent about it means that it is looking at all the ways to make it happen, and to make the damage as small as possible - for the stability, cohesion of the Government, relations with foreign policy partners...
Western partners did not look favorably on the fact that "pro-Russian and pro-Serbian" parties will become part of the government in a NATO member state. From the USA they said several times that the former DF is not their partner.
For Milena Bešić, it is not so much a problem that the reconstruction is not heard from PES, the problem is that it is not heard from the prime minister, i.e. from the Government, which is a collective body, which is not only made up of PES representatives.
"But that's not new either and we're already used to it, unfortunately, because the government hasn't communicated adequately with the citizens from the very beginning," she said, commenting on the fact that ZBCG has been increasingly vocal in recent days on the subject of reconstruction, unlike PES and the prime minister.
Bešić believes that from ZBCG they want to make it known that they are actually wondering and dictating the pace and sequence of moves, and "the silence on the other side is more than indicative".
The reconstituted Government will be extensive, but not stable
Bešić says that it would be logical for the government to gain stability, but that is hard to expect.
"There are more factors for instability, from the usual disagreements about positioning, to the determination of priorities in the work of the Government. Certainly, the appetites of the new constituents will continue to grow, because it would be illusory to expect them not to use all the levers of power that they have not had so far, for further strengthening", says Bešić.
In the meantime, as he reminds, the results of the census should be published, which will certainly greatly affect the further dynamics on the political scene.
"I think that early parliamentary elections will definitely happen, but I would say sooner, after the reconstruction, although no scenario can be ruled out," said Bešić.
Nikoleta Đukanović indicates that after the reconstruction, the Government will be extremely heterogeneous and extremely extensive - already existing departments will be divided, which will complicate relations in the Government even more and lead to a government that will be difficult to function with such a large number of departments.
"Then this heterogeneity will be greater because it is made up of political parties that are very different, given that the Government does not have a unified position or document on the strategic direction of development, that is, goals, then it is difficult to expect such a large number of different actors to be focused on something which may be the prime minister's goal", she stated.
Spajić's government currently has 19 ministries and 23 members.
Spajić has several options on the table
Nikoleta Đukanović says that if there is no reconstruction, given the great appetites and expectations of the parties of former DF members, then it is certain that they will deny support to the Government, but Spajić has several options on the table.
"Bidding with the Bosniac Party all the time is not without reason. June has passed, IBAR won, how will the Democrats continue to deal with the issue that bothered them before - the illegal appointment of the police director?", asks Đukanović.
As he adds, there is always some kind of minority support (as in the case of the Government of Dritan Abazović).
Đukanović says that elections are one of the options, but they are less certain than the reconstruction of the Government or the reconstruction of support in the parliament.
He believes that few people are comfortable with elections, although they are seen as a way to get out of the crisis, but they do not necessarily mean a solution.
"If you have the same political actors who create unhealthy and unnatural coalitions, very short-term, they are not designed to create a long-term result aimed at the citizens, which is precisely why we are constantly standing in the wrong place in relation to what the interests of the citizens are," she said.
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