In an interview with Voice of America (VOA), the former American ambassador to NATO, Kurt Walker, expressed concern about the participation of the pro-Russian parties of the former Democratic Front, which opposed membership in the alliance, in the reconstructed Government of Montenegro. He said that he would not like Montenegro to be like Georgia, which suffers harsh consequences on the international level due to certain moves by the government of that country.
Representatives of the Bosniak Party also joined the Montenegrin Government, and Prime Minister Milojko Spajić called it historic.
"We have a historical majority, which is a testament that Montenegro will be stable and that the country will be able to devote itself to essential topics, integrations, economy and social policy," said Spajić, explaining the proposal on the reconstruction of the Government in the assembly, and added that " "Montenegro is the most reconciled in its history," reminds VOA.
"This Government, with such a majority, is a guarantor of stability and maturity, and this is an indicator of how serious this Government is projecting. This is an indication to everyone out there, we are becoming an example in the region of how everyone can live together in peace", said Spajić.
Walker, one of the leading experts on American foreign policy and national security - who currently works for the consulting BGR group in Washington, assessed, however, that some moves are being made in Montenegro that could distance it from the West and that the Montenegrin authorities should listen to the latest messages from Washington and Brussels after the reconstruction of the Government.
"There has been a slow decline in Montenegro over the past few years, during the time of a couple of former governments, where you see that pro-Russian and pro-Russian elements have more and more influence. This undermines the independence of Montenegro and risks the future of the country. The government, the president and the prime minister are saying the right things about the European Union and the movement of Montenegro towards the West. At the same time, I am really worried that with the pro-Russian elements in the ruling coalition, we will see more efforts to go backwards change the rules of the census and allow people who are not Montenegrin citizens and do not live in Montenegro to vote in the Montenegrin elections, because of this there is a danger that the balance of power in the country will change, to the detriment of the pro-Western majority that led the country for most of its time independence," Walker told VOA.
Voice of America: And what exactly are the steps that distance Montenegro from the West?
Walker: It's one little thing after another, but all together they represent the same direction. You have the unnecessary provoking of Croatia, by raising the issue of the concentration camp in Jasenovac, then you have the multi-year role of the Serbian Orthodox Church in promoting the idea that Montenegro is not completely independent. There are also relations with (Serbian President Aleksandar) Vučić, the dismissal of the case against the participants in the 2016 coup attempt. So one little thing after another. And not all of them, considered separately, would cause concern. However, it is worrying when viewed together, with the rhetoric of some of those pro-Serbian and pro-Russian parties that are now part of the Government.
Voice of America: The relations between Montenegro and Croatia have been strained since the resolution on Jasenovac was adopted in the Montenegrin parliament, after Montenegro's progress on the road to the EU. Croatia retaliated by deciding to declare the leaders of the three parties - which are part of the government - persona non grata, Andrija Mandić, Milan Knežević and Aleksa Bečić. What kind of message does that send to the West?
Walker: It's complicated, because honestly, Croats can also be very awkward sometimes. However, this is about the damage that the Montenegrin side inflicted on itself. Totally unnecessary. And by sanctioning those officials, Croatia is trying to warn against going down that road. Montenegrin citizens really want the country to be a full member of the European Union as soon as possible. The Prime Minister himself says so. Last month, he stated that the ice had been broken and a big step had been taken. At the same time, if a neighboring member of the EU sanctions some officials, that is not the way to enter the union.
Voice of America: In the first reaction to the reconstruction of the Montenegrin Government, the American Embassy expressed concern about the participation of parties that did not condemn Russian aggression against Ukraine and do not support sanctions against Russia. The European Union has warned against actions that could be against the country's path to the EU. What do these reactions tell you about the general opinion in the USA and the EU when it comes to the Montenegrin government?
Walker: The reactions themselves are quite mild. But if you compare that with the fact that, in previous cases, there were none, then it is an attempt by the USA and the EU to continue to be positive and diplomatic, to keep the right tone, but also to express concern now, which was not always done publicly before. So, regardless of how mild they are, I hope that the authorities in Montenegro take them into account.
Voice of America: Will the USA and the EU this time adopt the approach of waiting and seeing what will happen in Montenegro?
Walker: I think people should take this seriously. Just as I described what the Montenegrin government is doing as a trend, I would also consider the reaction from the USA and the EU as a trend. So, if the government continues this, the reactions will continue and escalate. I would point to the example of Georgia, which was the leader in the group of countries with Ukraine and Moldova. A leader in terms of readiness for NATO, the EU, the implementation of reforms and with a public strongly committed to membership in NATO and the Union. And for several years, the government in that country has been doing similar things, undermining the country's direction towards the West and orienting it to be more aligned with Russia. America and Europe reacted and responded rather slowly. But as the moves continued, the response grew more strident. Now you have a bill in Congress to impose sanctions on Georgia, and it's pretty incredible that we've gotten to that stage. Some sanctions have already been introduced when it comes to visas. I would not like Montenegro to follow that template, which we are seeing now with the Georgian government.
Voice of America: Is there a danger of that in Montenegro?
Walker: Yes, there is. There is definitely a danger, not only in Montenegro. You see that in other countries as well. I am a bit worried about Bulgaria at the moment, then what will happen if the government of Moldova is not re-elected next year. However, you see it in Montenegro, which is, of course, already a member of NATO. So that's a concern.
Voice of America: What will American officials, at least those in charge of the Western Balkans in the State Department, pay attention to when it comes to Montenegro?
Walker: Washington is now completely distracted by domestic politics and elections. As you know, former President Trump is the Republican candidate and is leading in the polls. President Biden has announced that he will no longer be the Democratic nominee and it looks like it will be Vice President Harris. Everyone in government positions is now in some way obsessed with it and paralyzed by the situation. The American ambassador to Montenegro and Assistant Secretary of State O'Brien are two people who should be paid attention to, because they are the ones who will maintain politics there, on a career, professional level. This will be important for the next eight months.
Voice of America: Will the fact that anti-NATO parties are now in the government affect Montenegro's position in the Alliance? During his recent participation in the summit in Washington, the Montenegrin Prime Minister emphasized that Montenegro is a reliable partner and will remain so. What do you think?
Walker: NATO will not react in advance, based on the suspicion that Montenegro could do something. NATO will not do that. As long as Montenegro fulfills its obligations, nobody will do anything. However, in a situation where you have these parties in the ruling coalition, there is now a risk that Montenegro will do something that will create a problem with NATO. Such a risk would not exist without them. And that's why we're where we are and that's why people are expressing concern. But we have to wait and hope he doesn't do something stupid.
Voice of America: And what would be the consequences, for example, would NATO hesitate to share information with the Montenegrin government?
Walker: Yes. This is an obvious point and I have mentioned it in earlier interviews. That would be the obvious first step that NATO would take if there was a situation where you had a policy that would benefit the Alliance's adversaries. The first thing would be to stop information sharing. It was once done with Greece during a military coup. Also with Portugal when they had a dictator in power. However, you would enter a situation where, on the one hand, NATO makes decisions by consensus, and on the other, there could be an agreement within the alliance, usually under the authority of the Secretary General, not to share information. You could also be banned from meetings.
Voice of America: Is there a danger that Montenegro, for example, will be like Hungary, which is a member of NATO, but not aligned with some leading positions?
Walker: There is the question of what the government will do in Montenegro. This is not the case at this time. And it doesn't have to be the case. But if this slow move away from the country's western orientation suddenly accelerates, then I think that will be the case.
Voice of America: Prime Minister Milojko Spajić points out that the reconstructed government will remain focused on the path to EU membership. The opposition claims that it will be under greater influence from Belgrade and Moscow. What do you think, what awaits Montenegro in the future?
Walker: There is a risk. See who the players are, what their statements are, who they are associated with, what some of the policies they advocate are. If it becomes the Government's policy, the moves of the Montenegrin government, then it is a real problem. And that fits into a wider pattern - the pattern of Serbia's relations with Russia, the SPC's relations with the Russian Orthodox Church, efforts to undermine pro-Western forces in Bulgaria, developments in Georgia, Moldova. This is a worrying trend. Russia is making a lot of moves to try to expand its influence and disrupt progress towards Euro-Atlantic institutions in many countries in the region. We can add Republika Srpska, North Macedonia. This does not happen by accident. And it didn't fully come true. The government in Montenegro has a chance not to allow that to happen.
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