With the possible return of Donald Trump to the head of the USA, the world would enter a new phase of unpredictability, and for Montenegro and the rest of the Western Balkans, everything would depend on who from the new American administration would be in charge of the region. Trump would work to eliminate Chinese investments, Montenegro's entry into the EU would be in his interest, but authoritarian systems could strengthen in the Balkans. However, there is no guarantee that one can earn his favor.
This was assessed by the interlocutors of "Vijesti", professor at "Johns Hopkins" University in Washington Siniša Vuković and foreign policy commentator from Belgrade Boško Jakšić.
The presidential elections in the USA will be held in November, and the candidates are former President Trump (Republican), while the current President Joe Biden (Democrat) gave up his candidacy a week ago and announced his support for Vice President Kamala Harris.
Trump's chances for a second term in the White House have increased significantly after the recent failed assassination attempt on him during a campaign rally on July 13 in Pennsylvania and Biden's unconvincing edition during a debate with him on CNN. The former Democratic candidate's health problems further worsened after he tested positive for Covid-19, which is why there was increasing pressure on him to withdraw.
Trump told CNN after Biden's withdrawal that he thought Harris would have an easier time winning the election than Biden.
Boško Jakšić assesses that, when it comes to the Western Balkans, Trump's visions are conservative-nationalist and isolationist. He also points out that "you never know with Trump".
"His views on NATO are disturbing. He hints at a weakening of support for Ukraine and suggests establishing contacts with Russia, all in order to devote himself to his biggest challenge - Beijing. He would work to eliminate Chinese investments in the Western Balkans...", claims the interlocutor.
Jakšić reminds that the region of which Montenegro is a part has undoubtedly become more important since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. He says that he does not expect a reset of American policy in the Western Balkans, but adds that who wins on November 5 will depend on the ways of achieving the interests of the USA.
"Democrat administration, regardless of the fact that it pushed the EU out of the region to a significant extent, would continue to insist on the homogeneity of the Western alliance regarding military and financial aid to Kiev and a tough attitude towards Moscow. In the Western Balkans, the blockade of the spread of Russian influence would continue," he said.
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Trump has repeatedly claimed that he could end the war in one day, without explaining - how.
Last month, in a presidential debate on CNN with Biden, he said that Russian President Vladimir Putin's conditions, which include Ukraine handing over four territories currently occupied by Russia, are unacceptable. The former US president also criticized the sending of US military aid to Kiev...
Siniša Vuković says that it is still very difficult to talk about the foreign policy guidelines of the possible new Trump administration. Everything, he says, will be much clearer after the necessary personnel changes are made, and a decision is made as to who could actually occupy leading positions in his cabinet.
According to Vuković, it is easy to see from previous experience that the first Trump administration went through a series of cycles, which were primarily conditioned by personnel changes and decisions of the former US leader.
Trump's initial decision to, as Vukovic says, rely on tried-and-tested Republican Party staff and consider individuals outside the party who enjoyed a high degree of respect in Republican circles was abandoned after less than two years, and the focus shifted to individuals who clearly expressed commitment "MAGA policies" ("Make America Great Again"), regardless of how they were seen by the party structures.
"Consequently, the foreign policy was often unpredictable and inconsistent, because there was a conflict of platforms on the staffing level. From previous experience, it can be assumed that the new Trump administration will not allow itself a similar trajectory, but it is clear that thorough work is being done to consolidate administrative capacities that would be loyal in the application of 'MAGA policies', which are much to the right of the Republican center", he stated.
Vuković explains that on the foreign policy level, this means consistent application of Trump's vision of international relations, based on the rejection of multilateralism, focus on bilateral and transactional relations. He adds, one can expect a reduced focus on valuable topics, such as democracy and human rights, which will no longer be a prerequisite for many policies.
"In the Western Balkans, such an approach would greatly strengthen relations with authoritarian and personalist systems, which are often and publicly identified with 'MAGA policies', and some already maintain extremely transactional bilateral relations with people close to Trump, in order to try to use their potential significance for the new Trump administration", he said.
He points out that, no matter how clear and simple it all seems, nothing guarantees the favor of Trump, citing a recent example from the Republican convention when the candidate for the head of the USA openly criticized the president of El Salvador, Naib Bukele, saying that he is directly to blame for the increase in crime in the USA.
"This says that even the intention to fully identify with 'MAGA policies', have a close relationship with people close to Trump, and with all that implement clearly authoritarian policies that are inspired by an anti-liberal agenda that Trump is close to, does not guarantee the favor of Trump. In other words, solidarity among personalist regimes is not guaranteed", underlines Vuković.
It is inevitable, he says, that with Trump's return to power, the world would enter a new phase of unpredictability, which would largely bring into question the rules of the game at the international level, make the norms that regulated relations between states meaningless, and create preconditions for the strengthening of anti-democratic forces around the world. As he adds, for Montenegro, as well as for the rest of the Western Balkans, this would mean that everything will largely depend on the personnel decisions of who will be in charge of the region, as well as on the geopolitical context that would be formed soon after coming to power.
"Relations with China and Iran will undoubtedly be in focus, and these relations will shape the geopolitical context in which the US will expect others to determine themselves. It will be the so-called The 'zero-sum' approach, which is inspired by the maxim 'you're either with me or you're against me', is undoubtedly a recipe for tensions, escalation and conflicts of various scales," points out Vuković.
At the same time, he adds, it remains to be seen how the eventual new Trump administration would position itself in relation to NATO and the EU, and therefore also in relation to Russia.
"Don't forget, Trump has often very proudly pointed out that he is the toughest opponent that Putin has ever had, but we are witnessing that such rhetoric does not instill much confidence in Ukrainians who expect a reduction in aid to their defense against Russian aggression," Vuković said.
He cites the example of JD Vance, whom Trump nominated as his vice-presidential candidate, who not so long ago equated Trump with Adolf Hitler, and now unquestioningly accepts to be his closest associate.
"It is so difficult to predict what changes we can expect after the eventual accession to power. Because rhetoric is one thing, and policies are another. And Montenegro must know that. Getting carried away with rhetoric would be a serious mistake, which has already cost Bukele dearly. "Montenegro, as a member of NATO and the most likely new member of the EU, should be careful to what extent it is ready to compromise its own principles and priorities in order to agree with something that is still at the level of rhetoric and political spectacle," said Vuković.
Montenegrins, the third world war, pushing Marković
Boško Jakšić says that it can be assumed that it is in Trump's interest to have Montenegro join the EU as soon as possible, but that the candidate for the US president is unpredictable, "even to himself."
"He knows how to offend. The former president of Montenegro was a "marginal figure" for him. He characterized Montenegrins as 'aggressive people'. At the 2017 NATO summit, the former Montenegrin Prime Minister (Duško Marković) was pushed away... You never know Trump," says Jakšić.
In an interview with Fox News in 2018, when he was the president of the USA, Trump said that the people in Montenegro are very strong, but very aggressive and that the manifestation of that aggressiveness could lead to war.
"They are very strong people, very aggressive. They can become even more aggressive and, congratulations, we are in the third world war".
Speaking about the functioning and financing of NATO, when asked by a journalist why his son would go to defend Montenegro, Trump said that he asked the same thing.
Trump pushed Marković at the meeting of the leaders of NATO member states in Brussels on May 25, 2017. During a tour of the new NATO headquarters in Brussels, the then Montenegrin Prime Minister found himself in the way of Trump, who pushed him to stand in the front row. Marković then said that it was a "harmless situation" for him.
Former White House assistant Omarosa Menigault Newman wrote in her book that Trump called the Montenegrin prime minister insultingly after the publication of the video after the NATO summit.
CNN poll: Harris is better compared to Trump than Biden
The election campaign in the US begins without a clear leadership of Trump or Harris, according to a CNN poll published on Thursday.
Trump, while Biden was in the race, led over him by six points. Since Biden withdrew in favor of the vice president of the state, her starting position in relation to Trump is better than Biden's - Trump enjoys the support of 49 percent of surveyed registered voters, and Harris 46 percent.
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