INTERVIEW Lunić: There is no potential for war in the region

I think that the money you gave for the patrol boats could have been invested in a specialist ship for the rescue of sunken objects, for hydronavigation security, a Canadian...

The fact that Montenegro has completely harmonized its foreign and security policy with the EU puts it in the forefront of candidates for full membership.

62945 views 22 reactions 10 comment(s)
Foreign policy does not change easily, but it must be calibrated preventively: Lunić, Photo: Bucko Nikolić/2BS forum
Foreign policy does not change easily, but it must be calibrated preventively: Lunić, Photo: Bucko Nikolić/2BS forum
Disclaimer: The translations are mostly done through AI translator and might not be 100% accurate.

The Western Balkans, like Europe, is in a pre-war state, but it and the countries that make it up have no potential for war.

This is what the retired battleship captain and executive director of the Council for Strategic Policies said in an interview with "Vijesta", on the sidelines of yesterday's 2BS conference in Budva. Nikola Lunic.

Among other things, he assessed that Montenegro, although it does not have significant military capabilities, is currently protected and that its citizens are safe, although he says that malignant influences from outside are appearing.

"From various states, power centers that would eventually destabilize the situation not only in Montenegro, but in the entire region. However, I hope that at this moment, when the EU is becoming a global geopolitical player, when Germany is changing the entire concept of its defense policy, that it will not succeed," said Lunić.

What is your view on the security situation in the region, considering the arming of Serbia and Croatia, the introduction of mandatory military service in those countries, the tensions in Kosovo...?

In terms of security, the region cannot leave the global context. Given that Europe, in a global context, is facing a war of this scale on its territory for the first time since World War II, the region is also facing similar challenges. It has practically passed the post-war period, but, like Europe, it is in a pre-war state. Many European leaders warned their citizens about this, and told them to prepare for war.

As for the region itself, it and the countries independently have no potential for war. Simply, the youth sent an explicit message to the political elites - that they do not want to participate in the war. The call for conscientious objection in Croatia just before the suspension of mandatory military service speaks of this, but also the practical exodus from Kosovo, especially of the conscript contingent - people who should serve mandatory military service. (Aljbin) Kurti announced that Pristina will also introduce mandatory military service.

Therefore, young people do not trust the political elites in the Balkans, as it is. The situation is similar in Serbia. It is introducing or has announced that it will introduce mandatory military service with implementation from September, most likely. We'll see what the results of that are, but I'm not optimistic.

You are the generation that served mandatory military service. Do you think that Montenegro should introduce it, if we take into account that Serbia and Croatia are introducing it?

You see, the concept of mass armies is a 19th century concept. Simply, the rapid technological progress we have today requires adequate responses to sophisticated security threats. Such answers can only come from a professionally trained staff, specialized in a certain field. For two months of training, and in Serbia plus 15 days of training, you cannot create specialist training, you cannot train people for certain military record specialties that are present in the army. For example, today you have to be trained and operate a drone, which was unthinkable before.

Such a decision was simply imposed on the political leadership in Serbia, for the simple reason that the military leadership was unable to impose appropriate stimulus measures and somehow motivate young people to come and voluntarily serve in the military. Those stimulus measures would be very easy, very effective, because, for example, if you told young people that they have priority in employment in all state institutions if they complete their military service, they would come and it would be more than enough filling. However, the partitocratic mentality does not allow patriotism, it only delivers partocratism, and that is why young people know that their employment depends on membership in the ruling party, regardless of which party it is. Whether it is the SNS today or it used to be the Democratic Party, employment does not depend on patriotic feelings towards the motherland, but on loyalty to the ruling party.

This is precisely why young people are not interested in military service or warfare in the entire region of the Western Balkans. That is why I am skeptical about this project of introducing military service and I think that what is wanted to be achieved will not be achieved, which is the drastic improvement of the operational capabilities of the Serbian Armed Forces. For one simple reason, the military corps, the establishment failed to impose that the Serbian Army is a desirable employer. It also leaves the professional team, which, of course, has the possibility to leave. They are simply not stimulated and motivated enough.

Of course, the motivation for voluntary military service must be different for a professional soldier or non-commissioned officer. But regardless, I want to emphasize that the incompetence of the military leadership first generated the problem of filling the army, and then imposed political decisions on mandatory military service.

How do you see the situation in the military and security sector in Montenegro, given the frequent accusations of Serbia and Russia's influence on events in the country, as well as influence through the media, social networks and in various other ways?

Thanks to a smart foreign policy, Montenegro managed to be part of the collective security system. And it, regardless of the fact that it has no significant military capabilities in relation to its demographic potential, is protected at this moment. Citizens of Montenegro are safe. Of course, there are also malignant influences from the outside, from various states, power centers that would eventually destabilize the situation not only in Montenegro, but in the entire region. However, I hope that at this moment, when the EU is becoming a global geopolitical player, when Germany is changing the entire concept of its defense policy, that it will not succeed. Nevertheless, Montenegro is part of Europe, the European Union, and it is only a matter of time before it formally becomes so.

In Montenegro, due to the cohabitation of the government, its Defense and Security Council, which consists of the heads of state, the Assembly and the Government, which, among other things, makes decisions on the command of the army, analyzes the security situation, proposes the introduction of martial law and state of emergency... is it dangerous that such a body does not function due to party-political conflicts and that, among other things, the president and the minister of defense are accused of encroaching on each other's jurisdiction?

Nowadays, politicians in the Western Balkan region, and Montenegro is no exception, adjust their policies according to party and personal political interests, not according to national interests. The national interest of Montenegro is to be a reliable and trustworthy partner, that is, an ally to all other members of the NATO alliance. And that's what she will do, regardless of the obstructions of any party flirting with the electorate, that's what Montenegro will be. Citizens can be deceived and they can be influenced by their desires or emotions, but there should be no doubt that Montenegro will remain on the path of a reliable Euro-Atlantic alliance. All the influence that comes from abroad, especially regarding the delegitimization of the EU and the demonization of the NATO alliance, which is present both in Serbia and in Montenegro, I am convinced that it will not be successful. Quite simply, it's just a matter of the consequences we'll have until we sort it out.

Young people do not trust political elites in the Balkans: Lunić
Young people do not trust political elites in the Balkans: Lunićphoto: Bucko Nikolić/2BS forum

Foreign policy is not easily changed, but it must be calibrated preventively. When we assess some things in foreign policy and when the intelligence, security and diplomatic services point out geopolitical changes, we must act quickly and adjust foreign policy.

It is fantastic, I can say, that Montenegro has completely harmonized its foreign and security policy with the EU. This puts it in the first line of candidates for full membership in the EU. But we should not ignore the hybrid influences of foreign actions that would in some way destabilize the region and diversify the conflict that we have today in Ukraine.

Do you think that the Council will be destabilized because we have quarrels between the president and the minister of defense, etc.?

I think these arguments are for the domestic public. It is very important that the domestic public sees that the leaders of the political parties protect their interests, that they are on the path of their wishes. However, I have no doubt that Montenegro will remain a full member of the NATO alliance and contribute to all decisions made in Brussels.

Last month, the Parliament of Montenegro adopted an agreement on the purchase of two patrol boats from France at a price of 120 million euros. Among other things, there was also criticism due to their price. How do you view that investment, is it expensive?

Montenegro is limited in its potential, both democratically and militarily, but it is committed to membership in the NATO alliance. This means that it is also committed to allocating two percent of GDP for defense. Those two percent that Montenegro needs to allocate should be allocated wisely into funds and equipment that will serve both in peace and in war. Considering that Montenegro cannot fully develop all capabilities in one defense system as developed countries can, it should focus on certain capabilities where it can reach NATO standards and where it can be recognized as the bearer of certain capabilities.

In this sense, and I read about the capabilities of these ships that are being procured, I think it is a good thing that, under number one, certain funds are allocated, and under number two, which was also debated in the Assembly. The bad thing is that it is, in principle, not a government but a commercial contract, as far as I am informed. Correct me if I'm wrong. Those patrol boats only have one 20mm gun, I think, and nothing more. For the size of the ship, 60 meters with one cannon, these are the minimum naval capabilities that Montenegro will get for that money.

I think that at this moment and with the risks that Montenegro is facing, you could have invested that money in some of the recognized capabilities, such as, for example, a specialist ship for the rescue of sunken objects or for hydronavigation security or for a Canadian firefighting aircraft or something like that that would was an integral part of your military capabilities, which would be part of your army, but also with which you would contribute with the famous two percent as a full member of NATO, and with which Montenegro would gain significant potential to defend itself from some of the threats that threaten, even if they were and emergency.

Putin convinced the Europeans to allocate two percent for defense

What will happen to NATO if Donald Trump is the president of the USA again?

I am confident that nothing will happen. Trump is a commercially oriented politician, he has been so all his life, and in the end all his rhetoric was only aimed at making NATO, and especially the European allies, question whether these allocations are really needed and to what extent. Now Trump doesn't even need to say anything, now all European allies have been convinced by (President of Russia) Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin to set aside two percent.

I will remind you that Germany adopted a national security strategy and Boris Pistorius, as Minister of Defense, presented the guidelines of the defense policy. The German Bundeswehr is no longer training for crisis management, it is now training for wars, and Pistorius then said that not only would Germany reach two percent of allocations, but that it would be little and they would have to go for more allocations. Two percent for the Bundeswehr places the German army in third or fourth place in the entire world, in terms of their GDP.

Therefore, we must be aware that the entire geopolitical picture of Europe, the entire European security architecture is changing, and we as the Balkans and Montenegro as an entity must adapt to it.

Bonus video: