They set fires so that the "younger brother" does not escape to the EU: Why Belgrade and Vučić shoot poisonous arrows at Montenegro

After every crucial progress of Montenegro and support from Western addresses, exponents of official Belgrade politics in our country raise topics that deeply divide Montenegrin society, Nikoleta Đukanović points out.

104201 views 431 reactions 201 comment(s)
He does not want Montenegro to fully comply with the EU's foreign and security policy: Vučić, Photo: Boris Pejović
He does not want Montenegro to fully comply with the EU's foreign and security policy: Vučić, Photo: Boris Pejović
Disclaimer: The translations are mostly done through AI translator and might not be 100% accurate.

Increasingly, harsh messages from official Belgrade are aimed at destabilizing the situation in Montenegro to divert attention from the lack of reform processes in Serbia, and in the background there is a high degree of concern. Aleksandar Vučić that the "younger brother" could enter the European Union in 2028, before the sovereign state.

This was assessed by the interlocutors of "Vijesti", answering the question why relations between Serbia and Montenegro are not progressing four years after the departure of the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) from power, although this was expected.

Docent at the University of Donja Gorica Nikoleta Djukanovic she told "Vijesti" that the current situation seems to her that the authorities in Belgrade cannot tolerate the fact that Montenegro is progressing faster on the path of integration into the European family of nations. That is why, as she assessed, in all ways, through her exponents in the Montenegrin government, but often also "directly trying to destabilize the processes in our country, would they not be able to show in front of their citizens that they are the leaders in the region and in that way have maintained support for further management of political processes in their country".

"What speaks in favor of this thesis is the fact that after every crucial progress of Montenegro and support from Western addresses, exponents of official Belgrade politics in our country raise issues that deeply divide Montenegrin society," explained Đukanović.

She pointed out that it is expected that the relations between the countries are more meaningful and focused on cooperation since the parties that are focused on protecting their interests in Montenegro came to power, but that apparently their efforts to satisfy Vučić are not enough. She assessed that Montenegrin politicians are putting up with the humiliating attitude that Vučić has towards them continuously.

"I believe that these relations can be improved when the authorities of both countries depend exclusively on citizen-oriented structures, which our two countries see in the EU, with respect for democratic principles and standards and with full respect and mutual respect".

The structural diversity of societies does not contribute to building better relations either: Nikoleta Đukanović
The structural diversity of societies does not contribute to building better relations either: Nikoleta Đukanovićphoto: private archive

Đukanović said that anything different from that will lead to the creation of two poles that will dig trenches, "which will distract us from the reform processes of building institutions that are necessary".

She pointed out that the structural diversity of these two societies does not contribute to building better relations.

"In Montenegro, about 80 percent of citizens want to join the EU, while in Serbia, that figure is below 40 percent. This tells us that the authorities have different visions of development despite public narratives. What we constantly emphasize is the need to build institutions that, regardless of political changes, would enable citizens to be adequately educated, employed, progress, to use their rights, but also to respect their obligations, which would lead to the prosperity of two societies in the end".

Relations are not progressing because the government in Serbia has not changed

Professor of political sociology at the Faculty of Political Sciences in Belgrade Zoran Stojiljkovic he told "Vijesti" that the relations between Serbia and Montenegro are not progressing even after four years after the departure of the DPS, because the government in Serbia has not changed.

"It is personified by the omnipresent Vučić, who seems to think that even the uniform of the leader of Serbia is too tight, so he should be a defender, tutor and interpreter of the interests of all Serbs. At the same time, he, but not only him, is not a democrat who, according to Laswell, is adorned with an open ego and a positive attitude towards others, which also includes questioning his own position. The result is reliability and faith in the environment, which also results in freedom from ubiquitous anxiety," said Stojiljković.

He pointed out that this is a "spin dictator" who "rules by directing attention and redirecting it whenever, on issues such as lithium mining, he finds himself in trouble and in the minority, and then directing a sting towards Montenegro comes as a welcome respite." He states that Vučić would not do that, if he did not find a double profitable interest and reason in it.

"First, because it's still going on. To the non-negligible quarter in Serbia who would change the borders and dream a dangerous dream of a big Serbia, we should add those who, in truth, recognize its sovereignty, and cynically state that 'two eyes in the head', one of which is eight times larger, and are not beautiful and sustainable scene, but they would like a politically minor Montenegro that would follow the elections and the path of Serbia".

Stojiljković said that the fact that there are politicians in the region whose critical position towards the authorities in Serbia has turned into doubt about Serbia's intentions "for ever and ever" as an identification card and mandatory reading - again without doubt about their own position and motives .

The positions of the two countries are significantly different: Zoran Stojiljković
The positions of the two countries are significantly different: Zoran Stojiljkovićphoto: BETAPHOTO

He pointed out that his opinion is not based only on personal impressions, but that his views are based on the findings of last year's comparative research by the CGE on the relations between Montenegro and Serbia.

Provocative announcement of "political lithia"

Political analyst from Serbia Bosko Jaksic he assessed that Vučić is having a hard time coming to terms with the fact that Montenegro is an independent country, not Serbia's younger brother, over whom he would like to have a deed.

"Everything originates from time Milo Đukanović when their relationship could best be defined as a narcissism of small differences. They are united by authoritarianism, abuse of nationalism and corruption, separated by leadership ambitions and vanity".

Jakšić said that this is why Vučić reacts violently when the authorities in Podgorica make some decisions that are in the interest of Montenegro, not necessarily Serbia:

"Let's say about the recognition of Kosovo's independence in 2008... Vučić still believes that it was a 'stab in the back' of Cetinje sovereignties, failing to recognize that it was a pragmatic step that brings Montenegro closer to Euro-Atlantic integration. It was the same with the Resolution on the Genocide in Srebrenica, because of whose amendments to the text, Podgorica was accused of 'playing dirty like someone else's game'".

Jakšić said that Vučić's recent statement that Serbia "will not be a punching bag" and that he is not afraid of the lies of those who are running a "hunt" against him is primarily intended for the public of Serbia, but that it has nothing to do with reality.

"Montenegro neither interferes nor has the capacity to threaten Serbia. Unlike Belgrade. "I know that there are people in Montenegro who want to raise the fear of Serbia", says Vučić, but he does not mention the gap caused in Montenegro by the "weekend voters" of his pawns Andrije Mandić i Milan Knežević, thinly camouflaged supporters of the 'Serbian world' who know how to ignore the manifestations in their country, but do not fail to appear in Belgrade at every opportunity, or to attend the military exercise of the Serbian Army at Pešter".

Jakšić assessed that Vučić's current increased aggression is directly related to the result of the DPS in Podgorica, which is "after four years the first defeat of the ruling coalition in favor of Belgrade and a failure of the political engineering of the President of Serbia in Montenegro".

"The announcement that he will visit the Serbs on the territory of Montenegro is provocative because these political disputes will contribute to polarization, not good neighborliness. I'm not sure that Vučić would like to see that Serbia has the respect that Montenegro has in Serbia," said Jakšić.

Vučić has a hard time coming to terms with the fact that Montenegro is an independent state: Boško Jakšić
Vučić has a hard time coming to terms with the fact that Montenegro is an independent state: Boško Jakšićphoto: N1

Answering the question of how the internal political dynamics in Serbia and Montenegro affect the lack of progress in their mutual relations, even after four years since the change of government in Montenegro, Nikoleta Đukanović said that after 2020 the structure of the government changed and with it changes and relations between the two countries.

"What we can notice is that the government in Serbia respected only individuals who are experienced authoritarian politicians, not those who drew political power from work biographies, academic and social life".

This, as she said, shows that they also want the existing situation to be maintained with a redistribution of roles, rather than structural changes in society that will essentially be meritocratic.

She assessed that the issue of Kosovo can affect the relations between the two countries, because the dynamics of the development of relations between Kosovo and Serbia will largely decide the fate of Serbia's relations with other countries in the region.

"What I also believe is that if the government in Montenegro manages to resist pressure from Belgrade and take advantage of the historic chance to implement reform processes and achieve the main foreign policy goal in the next five or six years, I think that would significantly improve our relations in the future , and that at that moment we could significantly help integrate the entire region into the European family of nations", said Đukanović.

NATO and EU, or BRICS

Zoran Stojiljković assessed that the neo-imperial interests of the big ones cross the region and that the positions of Serbia and Montenegro are significantly different.

"Montenegro is a member of NATO and follows the policy of the EU and the 'collective political West', including the introduction of sanctions. Serbia advocates military neutrality - which justifies arming and the return of conscription, almost by consensus of the citizens, it will not yet join NATO, and it is deeply divided over EU integration. He sees Russia and China as guarantors of his interests around Kosovo and notes that BRICS is "arriving and overtaking" the G7. The USA is seen as the bearer of imperialism with a democratic guise and wishes, with all the reservations about its authoritarian populist policy, to win (donald) Trampa".

Stojiljković said that the "skill of Montenegrins" is commented on with a certain cynicism and envy to get the green light to enter the EU by changing the law at the last minute, even though, in the opinion of their own critical public, the newly adopted laws should be changed immediately.

To that, as he said, should be added the role of veto players, such as church organizations, corporate capital, and even intelligence or criminal networks.

"Again, normalizing the abnormal situation and keeping Serbia on the European path would improve the situation. Not to mention democratic reforms and reducing systemic corruption. As well as, especially in Serbia, missing public spirit, responsibility for the public word, culture of dialogue and tolerance, willingness to compromise and establishment of at least a minimal consensus", said Stojiljković.

More points of principled disagreement than fraternal unity

Boško Jakšić assessed that a lot depends on geostrategic positioning and priorities.

"While Serbia has one foot in the East and the other in the West, Montenegro has clearly determined its membership in NATO. This bothers Vučić, so he does not manage to contain the irony: 'We are not powerful and strong like you. We are not in NATO, like you, we are a free and libertarian country'".

Jakšić said that Belgrade's priority is attracting investments and developing infrastructure without the ambition to carry out real reforms that would strengthen democracy and create a legal state with strong and independent institutions.

He assessed that pluralistic Montenegro is fundamentally different from monolithic Serbia, and that "Podgorica somehow activated the fight against crime and corruption, which in Serbia, despite all the promises, has not even started."

"While the opposition in Belgrade openly accuses Vučić of creating a mafia-state, he cynically says, according to the favorite matrix that everything is always someone else's fault: 'I would ask you to send us less of these crooks and scumbags... We would have one 120 fewer dead in Belgrade, if there was less drug business'. Statement of the Minister of Internal Affairs Ivice Dacic that 'every village in Montenegro has its own organized criminal group' is just an elaboration of Vučić's thesis", said Jakšić.

He believes that in the background there is a high level of Vučić's concern that Montenegro could enter the EU in 2028, before Serbia.

"Since he does not give up the narrative of 'Serbia as the leader of the region', he finds it difficult to come to terms with the fact that Montenegro has a democratic capacity and that it is the only one in the region that has a real and realistic European perspective."

Jakšić said that Vučić does not want to see that Montenegro has 100% agreed with the foreign and security policy of the EU, while Serbia, primarily because of its attitudes towards Russia, is seriously lagging behind in this regard.

"As things stand now, there are more points of principled disagreement than 'fraternal unity'. "Montenegro joining the EU before Serbia would be a serious slap in the face to Vučić, who would confront Podgorica even more openly," said Jakšić.

Answering the question of what are the main reasons for sending "harsh messages" from Serbia to Montenegro, and how this affects bilateral relations, Nikoleta Đukanović states that these messages aim to destabilize the situation in Montenegro and divert attention from the lack of reform processes. in Serbia.

She points out that these statements are aimed more at the failure to implement their policies and at justifying unpopular political decisions in the future, than at the need to comment on the political and security situation in Montenegro.

"But when one looks at Mr. Dačić's statement, for example, who says that every village in Montenegro has organized criminal groups and that they brought crime to Belgrade. Mr. Vučić says that everyone from Montenegro and the region who wants to have Serbian citizenship should be able to do so, and that the politicians in our country are only bothered by Serbian citizenship. When you put those two ideas of Serbian politicians together... it would lead us to the fact that they want to import more criminal structures into Serbia".

Đukanović believes that this is all a political performance aimed at creating narratives that stop the progress of two societies and their mutual relations.

"When you take into account that these are extremely authoritarian personalities, prone to the demonstration of power and force, then different actions would surprise you".

Zoran Stojiljković assessed that such messages create and maintain a climate of increasingly open animosity and mistrust.

"There is spite and malice, bad memory, voluptuous vindictiveness and irony, a tendency to sarcasm at work. Many political actors also show enviable persistence in showing xenophobic, provincial, palanquin suspicion of the other and different, that is, the pursuit of the right to distinguish. The mentioned, insulting statement by Dacic also goes in that order".

He said that Vučić's statements suggest that Montenegro's position is servile and exploit the frustration in Serbia caused by Montenegrin recognition of Kosovo.

"Unfortunately, I don't see big political players with the vision and power for a radical democratic transformation in Montenegro either."

Hot - cold

Boško Jakšić assessed that Vučić's policy is "hot and cold".

"He says that Montenegro 'has an extended hand, that they will do whatever they want together'. "For us, Montenegro is an extremely important partner." "Montenegro is the closest country to us because Republika Srpska is not a country". Then he lashed out in the rudest way. "Serbia is the main topic of all attacks in Montenegro, they will get the response they deserve."

He recalled that two years ago Vučić declared that Serbia and Montenegro should "reset" mutual relations, but even today he is convinced that the sole blame for constant tension and occasional high tensions belongs to Podgorica.

"Recently in Tivat, at the summit of the Brdo-Brioni initiative, he opened tickets. "Serbia did not make a mistake about Montenegro, neither strategically nor tactically, it was just the other way around." His definition of the relationship is clear: in Podgorica there are sinners, in Belgrade there are righteous people".

As he said, Vučić is used to being arrogant towards dissenters or critical journalists in Serbia.

"Why doesn't Vučić slap the recognition of Kosovo in the face of the Americans, Germans, French or Turks?" He is a typical 'bicyclist': he presses down, he is bent up," said Jakšić.

Bonus video: