Although everyone declared the victory of their idea after the publication of the results of the census, the statistics published by Monstat should deeply worry because we are a country whose population is aging, and in a country whose population is aging it is completely irrelevant who is of which nationality, said the CDT podcast Action.
The director of the Society of Statisticians and Demographers (DSD), Gordana Radojević, assessed that the most important information that the census gave us was the one about the structure of the population by age and the number of foreigners, because, as she states, they determine all subsequent steps and phenomena - both demographic and economic.
"When it comes to the size of the population, there is a small growth of 0,6 percent. However, the total population includes both citizens and foreigners, we see that there is a change in the direction that the number of foreigners is increasing and the number of the resident population is decreasing. That is the key message It is important that we count on foreigners as part of the demographic potential, not only economically but also demographically, they use our hospitals and schools, it is important to look at it that way, regardless of citizenship," said Radojević.
"Another important piece of information is the deeply worrying lack of a young population. The population under 30 made up 40 percent of the population in 2011, now it makes up 35 percent, and when we compare, we see that we lack over 30.000 people under the age of 30. What is the reason? Either they left or because with a low birth rate were not even born," she added.
He states that the lack of a young population has two types of consequences - demographic and economic.
"We are in deep old age, 15 or 17 municipalities are in a state of old age or deep old age. We can expect everything from a society in deep old age and from an individual who enters old age. And what can we expect from an individual and the state in old age - economic activity decreases, the needs change completely, the demand for health services increases, as well as for social services, the pension becomes the main source of income, and the PIO fund the main source of stability for the elderly population", said Radojević, adding that the aging population does not promise a dynamic rate of economic growth.
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"We see that these three questions, which caused us to postpone the census, are becoming irrelevant, because our society is shrinking, it is completely irrelevant in a state that is in a state of deep old age, who is of which nationality, the race is only who dies slower," Radojević pointed out.
Results welcomed in a better atmosphere, control more political than professional
Journalist Zoran Radulović assessed that we welcomed the results of the census in an incomparably better atmosphere than it was when the process began.
"In October last year, we had a boycott campaign, dissatisfaction of minority communities, dissatisfaction of part of the non-governmental sector that deals with this issue, lack of enumerators," he said.
Speaking about the control of the process, Radulović stated that in our country it is normal for politicians to control everything.
“Literally everything. Then it was normal for politicians to control the census, and it was also normalized to wait for the politicians to tell us whether the census was correct or not. Another question is whether the politicians have really done the work they have undertaken. There are some disputes about that, because they were not overly interested. I have the feeling that the politicians also prepared this story, which is much more important to them than to us, quite skilfully and communicatively, as politicians do. They left room to dispute the results, if they don't like them, and they left room to grab the credit if they see that they can process the reported result so that they declare themselves the winners," he said.
Radojevic added that the census was conducted by three governments.
"The first was Krivokapić who made the proposal, changed the laws that regulate the independence of statistics. That government made important changes in the bodies that actually guarantee the independence of statistics. Abazović's government has prepared almost all the prerequisites for implementation, from methodological, IT... At that time, we had clear resistance to the realization of political control. And Spajić's government had the quality to open a broad consensus and now we have that acceptance from the actors who are important for creating public opinion about the census, but their opinion is not a guarantee that the process was completed to the end with quality," said the former director of Monstat.
Speaking about the presence of the prime minister and ministers at the presentation of the results, Radojević said that it was not only strange, but also illegal.
"The international standard and practice is that there should be a distance between the body that carries out the measurement and those whose policies are evaluated, the participation of the Minister of Finance from the population of the international standard would not be considered desirable, it is a little unusual, and perhaps it is understandable because the politicization was extensive, it was and in the previous censuses, in 2011, no one had access to that data," she said.
Commenting on the fact that no irregularity was reported, she pointed out that the only public information available is the conclusion of the Committee for Monitoring the Implementation of the Agreement on the Conditions for Holding the Census of Population, Households and Apartments, as well as the monitoring of the implementation of the census process.
"They expressed their belief that the census was conducted to the best possible extent and that it depended on circumstances that limited its complete success or failure," added Radojević.
When asked if the census was expertly checked, Radojević replied that, "as far as the public is aware, the expert check did not take place".
"I'm saying, as far as the public is aware. That control is usually done through an independent group of experts, international or national in nature, but from an exclusively statistical profession, without experience in similar actions. For that type of check, there is a predefined methodology defined by EUROSTAT, and those processes are control, not only in Montenegro, whether it was carried out with quality or not. It is very important that at the end of that professional, additional, external control, you have a very detailed and precise report with everything that was bad and a very clear conclusion that the results censuses are correct or not and to what extent. We came out of this process with a large amount of political control. I say it was necessary, because of the process and the transition, but in the end we do not have the conclusion "yes, it is correct" given by someone who is a statistician by profession, with experience in similar processes carried out in the EU. This is a message for the following censuses, that in addition to political participation, we also have an independent voice and monitoring," she said.
Asked if the prescribed seven days were enough for citizens to check their data, while noting that only three percent of those enumerated did so, Radojević says that it is a unique control mechanism characteristic of Montenegro and that the burden cannot be attributed to Monstat.
"They didn't even ask for that control, it's more a matter of analyzing why politicians who promote citizen participation didn't promote a period that was quite sufficient with good communication and promotion for the percentage of checks to be higher, that was missing," she said.
Radulović points out that Monstat was neither obliged nor felt the need to animate the controllers of its own work. "The politicians and the government should have done that, everything happened in a fog, seven days is not a short time," Radulović said.
Asked if he believed in the results of the census, Radulović answered in the affirmative.
"I have no reason not to believe, I have some small doubts, the results are in front of us, we have not received complaints that would dramatically discredit them", he said.
Radojević, to this question, adds that the final results differ significantly from the preliminary ones.
"The data on foreigners will be analyzed, six of the 50 data we are waiting for were published yesterday, professionally they must be comprehensively analyzed to see how accurate they are, the comprehensive concept of quality is multidimensional and does not only refer to the result but to many other processes, period in an average of six to 12 months, I guarantee and claim that when the DSD does the analysis of what time is needed according to the methodology used in all EU countries, we will come before the public," she stated.
When asked whether the fact that in the middle of the process of law changes made it possible to match data with the MUP database - changed the list from a traditional to a combined one and whether a new database was created, Radojević says that he does not know whether the MUP database was the basis for that who did not register will be included, and someone who registered but has no basis for it through the register, that a non-existent citizen deleted, we still don't know, and that he believes that Monstat will publish it.
Commenting on the smaller number of citizens of Croatian nationality, Radojević said that in absolute terms the Croatian population has not decreased, but in relative terms it has. "From the previous census, Croats and Roma had over one percent, now they are below, there is not that much difference in numbers. Some other communities have appeared, as we increase the share of foreigners, the share of the resident population will decrease," she said.
How is the number of foreigners smaller than the MUP data?
Commenting on the big difference compared to the MUP data that 98.000 foreigners live in Montenegro and the fact that there are almost half as many in the census, she points out that there are more unknowns. "Did you correctly determine the size of the population, the current immigration is difficult to cover, whether there was a lack of coverage, whether the population left in the meantime, we have an unknown," said Radojević.
Radulović adds that foreigners in Montenegro are a fairly mobile population. "We had a shortage of enumerators, it was necessary to enumerate foreigners who do not speak local languages, some wanted to be bypassed, especially Russians and Ukrainians who are conscripts who are afraid of military service," he said.
They know that because of the language it is necessary to change the Constitution, but they also know how the Constitution is violated
Commenting on the announcements of changes to the Constitution due to language, Radulović points out that politicians know that the introduction of the Serbian language as an official language requires an amendment to the Constitution, but that those who have already violated the Constitution say so.
"For example, on changes to the Law on the President and similar things. They have already announced that they are looking for a mechanism by which the Constitution could be circumvented. In the meantime, we got a new blackmail potential. We received a signal from the European Commission that our Reform Agenda has been accepted, that it opens the door for the inflow of money. That Agenda foresees that by the end of the year we will have a president of the Constitutional Court, that we will finish this reform of the electoral legislation that we have been talking about for ten years and we have not even touched it. This is where the commercial potential of political actors grows and they will use it," said Radulović.
He, when asked whether it was necessary to wait for the census before starting the Europe now 2 program, said that the data show what everyone feared.
"The data show that the pressure on the pension fund will only grow, that the number of those who need to fill the fund is decreasing, the participation of employees in the financing of the PIO fund, the problem will get bigger and bigger. Should we have waited, probably, but if the approach to that story had been responsible, we wouldn't have had to teach them from the sidelines that we should have waited," concluded Radulović.
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