If Montenegro closes four chapters by the end of the year, despite the divisions, identity issues, counting of members and parliamentarians, the key obstacles on the way to the EU will be the internal political consensus, technical and financial framework for adopting and implementing the more demanding part of the EU legislation and gathering the support of all 27 member countries for that agenda, according to "Vijesti" interlocutors.
According to expectations, Montenegro should close four negotiation chapters by the end of the year - 7 (Intellectual Property Law), 10 (Information Society and Media), 20 (Entrepreneurship and Industrial Policy), as well as Chapter 31, which refers to external, security and defense policy.
According to the roadmap drawn up by the European Commission (EC), Montenegro should close six chapters in negotiations with the EU in 2025, and 2026 in 20.
Negotiations on EU membership began in 2012, all 33 chapters were opened, and three were temporarily closed.
Analyst at the Berlin-based European Stability Initiative (ESI), Adnan Ćerimagić, he told "Vijesta" that for four chapters until the end of this year, Montenegro has fulfilled all the conditions, so in theory there should be no surprises.
"However, given the current practice, unpleasant political surprises are always possible," said Ćerimagić.
He emphasized that, when it comes to the extremely ambitious but achievable goal of closing the remaining chapters by the end of 2026, Montenegro will be faced with three obstacles.
"The first obstacle relates to the internal political consensus around the focus on agreeing, adopting and implementing important EU legislation and standards. In order to achieve this, there will be no room for literate orchestras, and even less for revisionist or nationalist agendas," Ćerimagić said.
He pointed out that another significant obstacle will be the technical and financial framework for the adoption and implementation of the more demanding part of EU legislation and standards.
"Just take as an example the chapter on environmental protection, where other candidates also needed a lot of focus, support, and time. It is good that Montenegro itself, in a way, has already announced that there will be a need for significant support from the EU, as well as the focus of domestic institutions," said Čerimagić.
He said that the third significant obstacle will be gathering the support of all 27 member countries for that agenda. Ćerimagić reminded that all member countries, with all the dramatic changes happening in the world, Europe and the region, "must at the end of the day be ready to support Montenegro in the EU".
"That is not completely the case for now. "There, Montenegro will have to "defend" itself in a wise and diplomatic way from all those who will seek ways to actively slow down or stop Montenegro, or to attach candidates who are far behind it in terms of their level of preparation," Ćerimagić assessed.
Docent at the University of Donja Gorica Nikoleta Djukanovic, assessed that the key challenges in closing the chapter are reflected in non-democratic political parties that are focused only on their own party interests and that do not respond to the building of strong institutions, the preferences and attitudes of citizens who are shackled by the post-socialist legacy, and the distance and misunderstanding of citizens and the political elite of Europe values.
She pointed out that much worse than the impressions of EU leaders is the fact that the parliamentary majority has lost its focus on integration and has returned to divisions, identity issues, counting members and parliamentarians, stifling non-governmental organizations, critical thought and freedom of the media, as well as damaging relations with neighbors.
"If Montenegro continues in the direction it took after receiving IBAR, we can hardly expect the well-deserved closure of the chapter. These are the key challenges in the period that awaits us, both in this year, when four chapters are expected to be closed soon, and in the next two, which are agreed upon as the deadline for closing all chapters", Đukanović pointed out.
She said that we should not forget that the question is what kind of attitude the new composition of the Commission will have towards Montenegro, but also the member states for which the expansion of the Union is not a priority, which will certainly make the further process of accession that awaits Montenegro more difficult, which is the most demanding.
"I hope that the Government clearly reads the report, even though it is perceived as a party tool, that Montenegro must also show results in the implementation of reforms and not only in the adoption of strategic acts and laws," said Đukanović.
She pointed out that this EC report is much better than the previous one, but not so much better than the reports that the European Commission gave to Montenegro all the past years:
"It is good that there is a clear political will and support from the EU, but also a clear orientation of the pro-democratic currents in the Government, which, although in the minority, show a clear commitment and expertise to speed up this process and successfully complete it".
Đukanović pointed out that, however, the fact that two thirds of the chapters have a rating of "limited progress", that four chapters received a lower rating compared to the rating from last year's report, that in three chapters it was stated that there was no progress, and that even thirteen chapters kept almost the same rating as in last year's report, does not indicate that Montenegro has done enough to be satisfied and that the Government rightly classifies the report as an impressive achievement.
"On the contrary, these data indicate that the Montenegrin administration had to and should have done incomparably more", pointed out Đukanović.
She believes that the administration would have done incomparably more if it had been freed from the shackles of non-democratic political parties from the current majority, just as they were freed from the shackles of the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) in 2020.
"On the other hand, it is also a fact that the parliamentary majority did everything to get the so-called IBAR laws adopted in June, and that after that they returned to their traditional topics based on identity divisions, which found their crown in even the incredible initiative of adopting the Law on Foreign Agents, or for example the amendments to the Law on Dual Citizenship".
She pointed out that there are many such examples that lead society to autocracy and not EU democracy, but this report did not deal with the period after receiving the IBAR, and she believes that this explains the clear restraint of the EU and its representatives when it comes to the "impressive progress of Montenegro". at the presentation of the report.
The parliamentary majority did everything to get the so-called IBAR laws adopted in June, and after that they returned to their traditional themes based on identity divisions, which found their crown in the even incredible initiative of adopting the Law on Foreign Agents, or for example amendments to the Law on Dual Citizenship, Đukanović said
Personnel capacities are also a problem
The director of CEDEM, Nevenka Vuksanović, told "Vijesti" that the dynamics of accession is imposed and dictated by the EU, which at this moment has an open door and understanding for any kind of progress, as shown by the EC report.
"The first obstacle in fulfilling the obligations is the personnel and knowledge capacities of Montenegro, which do not fully correspond to the reform tasks. This is what was stated in the same report for the MEP, which has the greatest authority and responsibility".
Vuksanović pointed out that the second obstacle is the internal conflicts of political subjects, which can lead to the non-establishment of dialogue on issues that require it, especially in the long term.
"The third potential obstacle is the change of direction and mood that exist in the EU. So far, there are no indications of that and the EU has a clear goal to bring Montenegro through the procedure as soon as possible, but it cannot be ruled out as a possibility. Therefore, it is extremely important that we take advantage of this opportunity and view EU integration as a national interest," Vuksanović assessed.
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