Montenegro with its current parliamentary majority cannot join the European Union (EU), former Minister of European Affairs Jovana Marović said.
She said that the European Commission (EC), by giving the green light to the road map for closing the negotiation chapters, wanted to lend a hand, give a certain incentive and influence the reforms to be implemented more intensively.
Marović believes that there will be no problems with the closing of the four chapters by the end of this year, because Montenegro has fulfilled the conditions in that part and adopted the necessary laws.
"I don't expect that any member state will block or politicize the process in any way," Marović said in an interview with the MINA agency.
She does not expect any problems with the six negotiation chapters whose temporary closure was announced by the Government for next year - Chapter 3 - The right to establish a company and the freedom to provide services, 4 - Freedom of movement of capital, 5 - Public procurement, 6 - Commercial law, 11 - Agriculture and rural development and 13 - Fishing.
"If everything goes according to the imagined dynamics and we fulfill the technical part concerning conditioning, I expect that there will be no problems next year either," said Marović.
According to her, problems may arise in 2026, when Montenegro is expected to close 20 chapters.
"Besides the fact that it is a huge part of the work in a technical sense, I think we will have big problems regarding Chapter 27 - Environment and climate change, because we already asked for certain exemptions in the negotiating position," said Marović.
She pointed to a recent assessment, according to which one criterion from that chapter will be fulfilled only in the middle of 2028.
"I have already said that the coalition in power is not as stable as it is being talked about, that we really cannot enter with such a parliamentary majority and that I expect that there will be a lot of conditioning between the coalition partners," said Marović, assessing that part of the ruling coalition will ask for favors for voting for certain laws.
All these counter-services, as she stated, affect stability.
"I think there can be a certain reconstruction, but this government must not fall if we plan to enter (the EU) in 2028," said Marović.
She added that EU accession is ultimately decided by the member states, which can block the process at any time.
"I don't expect it to be during this year or next year, but in 2026, when the rule of law comes up for closure, I expect them to seek stability in the country. "Nationalist parties, rhetoric will not be able to pass, this kind of parliamentary majority will not be able to pass, and that is more than clear," said Marović.
She said that for her, the information that the EC would propose to the Council the formation of a technical working group for the preparation of the contract on the accession of Montenegro to the EU, "was at the level of an earthquake".
"Because if you announce and ask the Council to approve the technical commission that will work on the accession agreement, you are also giving an assessment that the negotiations could soon be closed," said Marović.
She said that it is a bad message that, the day after that announcement, the member states removed from the report the sentence that refers to proposing the formation of a technical group for the preparation of the treaty on the accession of Montenegro to the EU.
Marović assessed that this, above all, undermines the EC's credibility.
"The EC decides on readiness and conducts an assessment on the ground. If the EC said - this country could close the negotiations, then it should have been supported by the member states," said Marović.
She said that the situation in Montenegro is bad, but that the member states are not ready for any commitment and that this is a really bad message.
Asked to comment on the EC report on the progress of Montenegro for this year, Marović said that it was expected and that everything that could be heard from EC officials found a place in that document.
According to Marović, the EC report is generally positive, and this is in a way a justification for obtaining the Report on the Assessment of the Fulfillment of Temporary Benchmarks (IBAR).
She stated that it was to be expected that the grades related to chapters 23 and 24 would be somewhat better than the previous year.
"The overall rating for chapters 23 and 24 is 'good progress' but not 'very good progress'." In the year in which we received the IBAR, it was to be expected that it would be somewhat higher," said Marović.
She said that the key messages of the EC report are that institutions are fragile, that the political situation is not quite as stable as the Government and coalition partners try to present to the public, that the work of institutions is affected by many factors, including political influence, and that institutions need to be built. because there is no rule of law without strong institutions.
"Other messages of the report are that there are a large number of negotiation chapters that need additional work," said Marović.
The focus, as she said, is on chapters 23 and 24, but Montenegro must close all negotiation chapters by the end of 2026.
"For me, the key message of the report is that there is still a lot to do," Marović pointed out.
Answering the question whether she expects Montenegro to solve the tasks related to the comprehensive electoral reform and the election of the president of the Supreme Court, she said that really little effort was made to solve these issues.
"These are issues that we have to deal with and solve as soon as possible", emphasized Marović.
She added that during the local elections in Podgorica and previous election cycles, it was difficult to listen to comments about the voter list and "all those things that we discussed for 30 years, during the rule of the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS)".
Marović stated that all political parties were in power at least for a short time, and they did not deal with these matters at all.
"Therefore, there is no longer any justification, you cannot now call out the DPS because the voter's list is not valid", stated Marović.
In response to the question of what the adoption of Montenegro's reform agenda, i.e. the Growth Plan, means for the country's European path, she said that the reform agenda and the funds that the country receives from the EU are important for economic consolidation and building infrastructure.
Marović believes that the reform agenda is a kind of improvement of the Berlin process and that "initiatives and everything that we have had so far within the framework of regional cooperation have been put under one roof."
According to her, the dynamics of establishing a common regional market is not fast and the states have to wait for those countries that "trot".
That, as Marović said, does not suit Montenegro at all.
She assessed that the reform agendas of the countries of the Western Balkans are not ambitious enough.
"I think that when they are implemented, after a three-year period, we won't even come close to certain areas of the single European market, so the talk that we will gradually integrate into certain areas of the single European market is completely untrue," said Marović.
For her, as she said, the amount of money allocated for Montenegro of 383,5 million euros, compared to 1,6 billion euros allocated for Serbia, is also problematic.
Marović assessed that more should be invested in the country that is closest to EU membership, than in the others.
As she stated, the story that the criterion for determining funds is the gross social product and the number of inhabitants is not a valid argument for her.
Asked to comment on EC President Ursula von der Leyen's messages during her visit to Montenegro, Marović said that everything von der Leyen said about Montenegro had no importance or weight for her.
"If the president of the EC could praise Serbia's efforts in the area of the rule of law the day before her visit to Montenegro, everything she said about Montenegro has no importance and weight for me," Marović stated.
Asked about the statement of the Croatian member of the European Parliament (EP) Tomislav Sokol that there are still many problems in Montenegro, the biggest of which is the increasing Serbian-Russian influence on political processes and the reaction of the member of the Democratic People's Party Vladislav Bojović that Sokol aligned himself with the DPS, Marović said that the members of the EP represent their political parties.
"It is completely logical that they fight for their political agendas and support their political partners in the countries of the Western Balkans," Marović said.
She stated that she does not see anything controversial and that she does not see that his statement is far from the truth.
"Nobody was bothered by the fact that the commissioner for enlargement was pushing Orban's and another country's policy, that is, the current party in power. Well, that is disputed. If you advocate a political option from that place, that's a problem," said Marović.
As she repeated, the EP and all its members advocate their political options.
"It is completely legitimate for Mr. Sokol to push DPS, if he wants to. I believe that it should not be done, that the situation in Montenegro should be looked at realistically, and not supported by some political option, but that is his right," Marović stated.
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