Montenegro will not be a priority on the radar of the new administration Donald Trump, but he may suffer serious, indirect, negative consequences of what his victory in the US presidential elections yesterday may produce in the country and in Europe, including encouragement for authoritarian leaders in the region, the interlocutors of "Vijesti" assessed.
"Montenegro is in the Balkans, in Europe, a member of NATO and a candidate for the EU. All these relations are under the influence of the second Trump administration and all of them are in some way threatened", he told "Vijesta" Edward P. Joseph, professor at the School of Advanced International Studies of the American Johns Hopkins University.
Yesterday, Trump was elected as the 47th president of the United States of America as the Republican candidate, defeating the Democratic candidate and the current US vice president. Kamalu Harris, after he was at the head of the USA from 2017 to 2021. His new mandate begins on January 20, 2025.
Joseph believes that the fight against corruption and the rule of law, democratic standards and principles in Montenegro, in which Trump's predecessors invested a lot of taxpayers' money, including support for the prosecution and the police, will not be so important to the new administration in the White House, because these are not priorities for him. not even in the US.
"Do we think that the second Trump administration will strongly insist on the fight against corruption and the rule of law? Why would we expect that, when we will be worried about it here in the US, where the rule of law will be undermined? We are very concerned about the integrity of our own institutions under this second Trump administration. Remember, this is the second round. He will want completely loyal people around him. He will not have around him responsible people such as (former Minister of Defense, General James) Matis, (former adviser for national security H. R.) Mekmaster and (former Trump chief of staff John) Kelly. Therefore, within Montenegro and within the United States, the rule of law and respect for democratic norms will not be a priority," said Joseph.
Mattis, McMaster and Kelly resigned from their posts in Trump's first administration, and have since criticized the former boss for a variety of things, including claims that he threatens the US constitution, that he has a condescending relationship with the president of Russia Vladimir Putin, that if he wins, he would rule as a dictator and fit the "definition of a fascist".
And Joseph is a professor at Boston University Vesko Garcevic they believe that there is a closeness between Trump and some authoritarian leaders in the region in the way of conducting politics.
Garčević said that it is not unexpected that some authoritarian leaders in the region are encouraged by this victory and whose congratulations and greetings are leading the way.
"I think that, also, Serbia expects to get a wind at its back because of this victory, bearing in mind that it has opened its doors for investments coming from Donald Trump's environment, bearing in mind his attitude towards politics, general and foreign policy, which is often or most often intertwined with work. That may not be without grounds," said Garčević to "Viješta", responding to whether the President of Serbia would Aleksandar Vučić to have more support from the USA for their alleged plans with Montenegro.
Vučić's critics and the Montenegrin opposition claim that it is not in his interest for Montenegro to be stable and quickly enter the EU, so through his associates in Montenegro, the media and in his statements and those of other officials, he causes instability and interferes in its internal affairs, which he denies.
Joseph stated that in the region and in this context, Montenegro's relationship with Serbia, with which Trump has a "privileged relationship", is in the foreground.
"We know that Trump is close to Serbia. We know that Serbia and many Serbs supported Trump. He likes that. Will (Richard) Grenell be his foreign minister? "Grenell has close relations (with Serbia), as we say in the US, put 2 and 2 together. Trump's family has investments there, and he is not a man who will worry about integrity and conflict of interest," he said.
Grenell, former special envoy for Serbia and Kosovo, and Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law signed a contract with the Serbian authorities to build a hotel complex worth 1999 million dollars on the site of the building of the General Staff of the Yugoslav Army, destroyed in the NATO bombing in 500.
Joseph also assessed that Trump's negative attitude towards NATO can indirectly affect Montenegro, a member of the Alliance.
"Does anyone believe that Donald Trump is more committed to NATO now than he was in his first term? He doesn't like alliances, he doesn't believe in it," said Joseph. "In addition, Trump is inclined towards Vladimir Putin. In Moscow they are celebrating (Trump's victory), they wanted that, they interfered (in the election) and supported him here in the USA. There is clear evidence for this. So who knows what his relationship with Putin will be and what his approach will be?”
During the campaign, Trump repeatedly said that if he is elected, he will "stop the war in Ukraine in one day", and that before taking the oath as the 47th president of the USA.
Joseph assessed that Trump's pressure on Ukraine to conclude an unfair peace in the war with Russia is possible, which "rewards Russian aggression, and we understand what consequences this will have in Europe."
“What will that mean? How will Serbia interpret that? Will this be a green light for Serbia to take a more aggressive stance in the region?", asks Joseph. "Do you think that Putin will stop in Ukraine and that it will not have implications in the region? Do you think that Vučić will not see some opportunities there? Not necessarily military, but political, to believe that the US does not care about that kind of projection?”
Both Józef and Garčević still believe that Montenegro is too small to be the subject of any special consideration in the White House or the State Department.
"We cannot expect the victory of Trump and the changes that this victory could bring in our region before, for example, the middle of next year. An administration needs to be formed, so as far as our priorities towards the European Union are concerned, I don't see that there is a single obstacle in that regard," said Garčević.
He said that it is still too early to make in-depth analyzes of what Trump's policy towards the Western Balkans will look like, bearing in mind that it is not even on the list of US foreign policy priorities, and it would be the same whether Trump or Kamal won. Harris.
"I don't think that Trump will intentionally harm Montenegro. He is not preoccupied with Montenegro. I don't think they will wake up tomorrow and say, how can we harm Montenegro?" said Jozef, recalling the incident when he pushed away the then Prime Minister of Montenegro. Duško Marković at the summit in Brussels, and the "insane statement" in an interview that there is no reason for Americans to defend "aggressive Montenegrins" who can "cause the Third World War".
DON'T MISS IT
Garčević pointed out that at this moment it is important for Montenegro to have its own way and to turn as soon as possible and as much as possible to the accession to the European Union: "It is the best way to protect itself from any foreign interference and interference from outside the region, including and Serbia. If I were Montenegro, I would use the next period to speed up all the activities that should lead Montenegro towards the European Union. This is the best way to solve the issue of protecting Montenegrin interests in the right way under the current circumstances," Garčević assessed.
However, Joseph pointed out the existence of different interests in Montenegro and the surrounding area.
"You have actors in Montenegro and actors in the neighborhood and neighbors who do not seem to be committed (to the path of Montenegro to the EU), and who have closer interests with the Russian orientation and the Serbian orientation than they have with the Montenegrin and true orientation towards the EU. Well, those forces are probably also emboldened by the Trump administration," Joseph said.
"Vučić could have an interest in slowing down Montenegro on its way to the EU, I have already alluded to that, to the forces in Belgrade and the forces in Podgorica who do not want to speed up the road to the EU. Those forces are probably celebrating today".
He said that he does not want to answer questions about what Montenegro could do and adapt to Trump's "transactional" way of conducting the "me to you, you to me" policy, including his private affairs.
"The French have the word blackmail, extortion. Therefore, it should not be the basis for a relationship. The basis for the relationship should be shared values. We have common goals. We want to improve the democratic stability of the Balkans. We want to improve the unity of the NATO alliance against the threat from Russia, the threat from China. That should be the basis of our relationship. No, 'oh my brother-in-law would like to actually build a new hotel on this island,' or something like that,” he said.
Yesterday, the Europe Now Movement, the Democrats, the New Serbian Democracy and the Bosniak Party did not answer the questions of "Vijesti" about what Trump's victory means for Montenegro in the context of EU accession and whether Vučić will have more support for his eventual plans with Montenegro.
Trump's victory was congratulated yesterday by the heads of the Montenegrin state, government and assembly.
President Jakov Milatovic he congratulated Trump on his victory, stating that Montenegro and the USA are friends and steadfast partners, united by common goals and values, aimed at improving democracy, security, stability and freedom.
"As allies in NATO, we look forward to close cooperation with your administration to strengthen our friendship and deepen cooperation," Milatović wrote on IX.
Prime Minister Milojko Spajic in his congratulatory message to Trump, he stated that he was delighted with the fact that 61 percent of Americans believe that the best days of the USA are yet to come, and compared the economic programs of his party, Europe Now 1 and 2, with Trump's plans for economic policy.
"That is the secret of this country's success, and why it will win in all circumstances. If you don't believe it's possible, it won't happen. The economic thought of Europe now 1 and 2 won last night also in America: lower taxes and contributions on citizens' incomes, and state revenues from indirect taxes. Congratulations to President Trump on his incredible comeback. The best time is coming for both countries", Spajić wrote on Iks.
Trump's victory was congratulated yesterday, among others, by the president of the BiH entity Republika Srpska (RS) Milorad Dodik, member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina Željko Komšić, President and Prime Minister of Kosovo Vjosa Osmani and Aljbin Kurti, Vučić, President of the Assembly of Serbia Ana Brnabic...
Józef: Both Spajić and some big Trump supporters love cryptocurrencies
Among the possible influences of the Trump administration on Montenegro, Joseph mentioned the Prime Minister's "interest" Milojko Spajić for cryptocurrency.
During Trump's first term, the cryptocurrency market experienced a boom, as he was against the introduction of regulations to regulate the market, and during this year's campaign he praised cryptocurrencies several times. Bitcoin rose to over $75.000 yesterday, up from $68.000 a few days ago.
Spajić is one of the first investors in the failed tera/luna cryptocurrency, the controversial South Korean Hyeong Do Kwon, who is awaiting extradition in Montenegro to the United States or South Korea, due to accusations that he defrauded investors for 40 billion euros. He reported to the Anti-Corruption Agency that he owns several cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin.
“You have a prime minister who is very interested in cryptocurrencies. The people who are in it love Trump very much. Maybe it is some potential influence on Montenegro. I don't know much about crypto, but you can imagine that the prime minister has an interest in crypto, and so do Trump supporters, crypto fans are among his big supporters. I only mention it because, you know, it is another connection with Montenegro".
Mandić, wasn't the USA a "bastion of freedom" before Trump's victory?
Standing next to the Montenegrin, Serbian and American flags, the head of parliament and the leader of the New Serbian Democracy Andrija Mandic published yesterday on the website of the Assembly a video congratulation to Trump, in which he announced that "this important victory reflects the trust, support and confirmation of the American people to Trump's leadership and vision of the future".
"Although a small country, Montenegro remains committed to the promotion of peace, stability and cooperation, both in the region and at the global level. I am convinced that, along with the responsible internal policy that you stand for, which will be dedicated to the development and betterment of the citizens of the United States of America, during your term of office, within the framework of foreign policy, you will pay special attention to the region of the Western Balkans," Mandic said.
He said he believes that Trump's "efforts on the international scene will continue to be directed towards building and preserving stability and that the conflicts raging around the planet will be ended, and that peace will rule the world." "With the strong conviction that you will once again make your country a bastion of freedom, I wish you success in continuing your work, for the benefit of the United States and the entire world."
He previously sent a congratulatory message to Trump on the social network Iks.
"Sincere congratulations to President-elect Donald Trump on his victory. It is reflected not only in his historic return to the White House, but also in the fact that together with the Republican Party he led, he achieved victory in the Senate as well. I am sure that together we will build bridges of cooperation and preserve peace and stability in the Western Balkans," Mandić wrote.
Nikolić: Vučić did not have the support of the US for interfering in Montenegro
DPS MP Andrija Nikolić does not expect a change in US foreign policy towards the Western Balkans or Montenegro, and believes that Aleksandar Vučić misused Washington's goal of directing Serbia towards the West to interfere in the internal affairs of Montenegro.
"We do not expect a change of course, the US foreign policy towards the Western Balkans has one constant, which refers to support in democratic processes, joining the EU and responsible participation within the NATO alliance. During the previous term of President Donald Trump, Montenegro became a member of NATO, and during Trump's first term, the then US Vice President Mike Pence visited our country. "Serious countries like the United States do not radically change the strategic directions of their foreign policy, especially not in relation to their strategic Euro-Altante allies," said Nikolić.
He said that he did not believe that Vučić "had American support for interfering in internal political issues in Montenegro".
"It can be said that the President of Serbia abused the strategic orientation of the White House to direct Serbia towards the West and to separate the interests of Serbia and Russia. The old practice of Belgrade's interference in the internal political affairs of Montenegro was renewed at the moment when Montenegro found itself in the final phase of joining the NATO alliance. This bothered Russia the most, which, through its proxies installed in Serbia and our country, tried to prevent Montenegro's membership in NATO. I believe that both this and the experiences from recent political history will help us improve our partnership with our strategic ally the United States, both within NATO and in bilateral relations," said Nikolić.
Bonus video:
