Internal divisions and open issues in the Western Balkans are an arena for the expansion of foreign influence, especially Russia, which does not accept the fact that the Balkans have chosen a western orientation, said Radmila Šekerinska, the former defense minister of North Macedonia.
In the proudcast jointly realized by the agency MINA, the Center for Civic Education (CGO) and the Friedrich Ebert Foundation, she said that it is part of the standard Russian doctrine that in the regions where they want to exercise their influence, they should not open up any new issues, but rather use the existing ones. which is already available.
"The Russians have shown that geopolitics can best be promoted through nationalism and thus influence the region. "I think that our open issues, our internal divisions, are always an arena where foreign countries, especially Russia, can influence in one direction or another," said Šekerinska.
According to her, Russian influence in the region is not the same everywhere.
"He was always weak in Macedonia. For the first time, we felt that this influence was getting stronger when people began to have reservations about our European path, to lose confidence that the country will become a member of the EU. Not as an alternative, because you don't have an alternative from that side, but as a reflection of frustrations and dissatisfaction", said Šekerinska.
She added that this Russian influence is much more visible than seven or eight years ago and that the EU understood this, but that she did not assume that things could change so quickly.
She said that Russia did not work intensively when Macedonia was making an agreement with Greece, but that they saw a new chance when the problem with Bulgaria opened up.
"That is, in fact, the biggest, strongest side of Russian influence or Russian operatives. They change the plan very quickly. When they see that one method of pressure does not work, they quickly adapt to the new situation. In that part, NATO and the EU are much slower," said Šekerinska.
She believes that the main reason for Russia's influence in the Western Balkans is not only to prevent the accession of some countries to NATO or the EU, which is part of the official rhetoric, but to be dissatisfied with the fact that the region has, after all, chosen a western orientation.
"This is something that Russian politicians do not want to accept and they have not given up. I think they are even more ambitious now," explained Šekerinska.
When asked how she assesses the security situation in the Western Balkans and what she sees as the biggest threat to peace, Šekerinska said that during the 90s the region was associated with conflict and war, but that now the experience is different, although unresolved bilateral issues remain the biggest source. risks.
Speaking about the importance of NATO, Šekerinska said that the membership of Montenegro and North Macedonia was an investment not only in the future and security of those countries, but also a contribution to the security of the region, even of those countries that are not part of the alliance, stressing that membership in NATO states brings the EU closer.
"If Montenegro joined the EU, or North Macedonia, then others would go much faster," said Šekerinska, stating that membership in NATO made it much easier for North Macedonia, as investments and investors' sense of security increased after that.
When asked how far or how close member states are to EU membership and what will be the deciding factor on that path, Šekerinska said that Montenegro is the closest to the Union and that the region depends on Montenegro.
"I hope that you will be better and faster, because if it becomes clear that the expansion is still realistic, I think that all states will be a little more responsible towards that process. The last report shows that you can be more ambitious and that the focus is on concrete processes within different areas. Here (in North Macedonia), the issue is still in the political domain and it is always more difficult," Šekerinska stated.
She added that not everything depends on the countries of the Western Balkans, but that the attitude that enlargement is geopolitically important must prevail in the EU and that it cannot be postponed endlessly so as not to collapse the process.
It is a fact, Šekerinska stated, that because of Ukraine and the events in Moldova and Georgia, the enlargement is being looked at through a geopolitical prism for the first time, after about 20 years, judging that this is a good thing.
"We are not asking them not to see our flaws, but we are asking that the enlargement be realistic and that the political will of the member countries is not changeable. The lesson that many people learned from the Macedonian example is that if one of the countries has some kind of problem, it can block the process," Šekerinska said.
Speaking about the re-election of Donald Trump as president of the USA, Šekerinska said that during the last year, Europe has analyzed a lot how a possible Trump victory will affect security, especially the economy and trade relations.
"Europe has shown that there are ways to work on cooperation, even when on the other side of the ocean there is a president who is less interested in Europe in general or is less interested in the type of international order in which Europe has a great commitment," she explained.
Šekerinska said that, regardless of who would become president of the USA, it was clear that America was turning its attention from Europe to Asia, and that Europe must be stronger and more sovereign, that it must invest much more in its strategic and autonomous decisions.
"Calculating that NATO will be there to guarantee your security, and that you spend very little financial resources for your security, was not a sustainable solution. So, in a way, the victory of Trump will force the Union, including all of us who are not in the EU, but are in the "European orbit", to be a little more responsible towards the issues that are our existential obligation, which is, above all, security ", said Šekerinska.
When asked whether this could influence the EU to look more favorably towards the Western Balkans and open its doors to new members, Šekerinska assessed that the association "Trump's victory - greater responsibility of the European Union for its continent" will not automatically mean an open door for expansion.
"At the moment, more focus is on the issues surrounding the war in Ukraine and trade relations between the EU and the US. I even think that the greater danger is that the focus will be elsewhere. And the Western Balkans never profits from such situations," noted Šekerinska.
When asked whether a greater focus can be placed on the Middle East, Šekerinska is of the opinion that the EU's focus will be on Ukraine because Europe knows that its existence, future and security are in question.
As she stated, in the Middle East, the EU is somewhat less active because their power and influence there were never big enough, like the USA's.
"The biggest focus now is not only the war in Ukraine, but how the development of that war will affect the ambition and responsibility or irresponsibility of Russia, that is, whether it will be the end of their ambitions and destabilization," said Šekerinska, reminding that there is a fear in the EU that Russia could attack some Baltic countries.
"When you see that these countries are already allocating over three percent of their gross national product for defense, when you see how defense plans are made, how resistance is worked within their societies, it is clear that this fear is real. And when you see what happened in 2014 and 2022 in Ukraine, it is clear that this fear is not unjustified," said Šekerinska.
Asked what Trump's attitude towards NATO might be, since during his first term he threatened that America would leave the alliance, Šekerinska said that the focus was then too much on a few statements, but fundamentally, during that term of Trump's term, it was serious strengthened the Alliance, partly due to his pressure for member states to allocate much more money to defense.
"When you put the statements aside and when you analyze the numbers, and the numbers in NATO's part are money and capacities, you will see that the capacities are much higher than ten years ago", stated Šekerinska.
She said that the fear of Trump's attitude towards NATO is not justified because that organization also strengthens American defense, industry, and American influence.
When asked what kind of decisions Trump can expect regarding Ukraine, Šekerinska said that it is unrealistic to draw what the new American president will do, but that it will be interesting what will happen in the next two months during which the transition of power in the USA will follow.
"These are important two months because of the crises in the Middle East and Ukraine, but it is clear that the pressure will be greater towards some kind of truce. But, what exactly does that mean, under what conditions, all of that is questionable...", pointed out Šekerinska.
She believes that the European members of NATO must prepare to give more help to Ukraine.
"For us, this is an existential issue. For many NATO member countries, it is an issue that is not a crisis a thousand kilometers away, but really close. And here, I expect, the European members of NATO will show that they can help Ukraine a little more to get out of the crisis and not allow this psychological advantage to be used," said Šekerinska.
When asked whether some national circles in the countries of the region, who congratulated Trump on his election, have reason to look forward to a change in the American administration, Šekerinska said that politicians use every development, even in other parts of the world, to strengthen the public your position.
"That type of closeness to some powerful factor is part of the political game. I think we need to deal with it a little less and our problems a little more. Namely, the feeling in the Western Balkans that salvation will come somewhere from Washington or from Brussels, Paris and Berlin, makes us passive. And that keeps us where we have been for so many years," she stated.
When asked what it will mean for the Western Balkans if one of the candidates from the countries of the region is elected as the Deputy Secretary General of NATO, Šekerinska said that the region can definitely only profit.
"Because if you are not on the table or if you are not loud enough on the table - you are gone, and this region was not on the table as an influential factor. If this entire region could have a bigger or more influential representative, that could only be a plus," Šekerinska concluded.
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