The agreement between the list Budva naš grad and the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) is the most logical scenario for the formation of a stable government in Budva after the extraordinary local elections, assessed methodologist Miloš Bešić.
He said that the elections in Budva showed an almost identical balance of power, as in May.
Bešić pointed out that the fact that political actors should negotiate almost identically as they had to negotiate after the May elections has not changed either.
"I think that this time political actors should show an additional level of responsibility, because the elections serve to resolve the political crisis," Bešić told the MINA Agency.
He said that the elections in Budva, however, do not solve the political crisis, but that it must be solved by agreement and discussion between the partners.
As he said, political actors must understand that they can repeat the elections many more times, and that the same outcome will happen.
"Either the political actors will make some kind of agreement, or they will go for some kind of forced administration, because this situation is simply unsustainable," said Bešić.
Speaking about the solutions for the formation of the government, Bešić said that hypothetically and logically there are three solutions.
"The first solution is to agree on the lists for the future of Budva (ZBBD) and Budva our city of Nikola Jovanović," said Bešić, stating that an agreement between the two lists would solve the problem, but that it is the least likely solution.
He said that another solution is for one of the two lists to form a coalition with DPS, for which, as Bešić added, he would not exclude the list Budva naš grad.
According to Bešić, the third solution is for one of those two lists to form a coalition with all the others, because that is a condition for 17 mandates.
"It is almost impossible for ZBBD, because the European Union will not agree to it. Therefore, the third option would be for Jovanović to make an arrangement with everyone else, except ZBBD and DPS," explained Bešić.
As he said, it is possible numerically, but it is a very unstable government with 17 mandates, because in a complex structure, the majority depends on one mandate or one actor.
Bešić said that, from the point of view of political stability, the most acceptable would be the first or second solution.
"Number one probably won't happen, because there is too much animosity between the two lists, and already solution number two is the most realistic. In other words, the most realistic thing is for Jovanović to form a coalition with the DPS," Bešić said.
Speaking about how realistic it is for the government to be formed in Budva, he said that there are greater reasons for the government not to be formed now than after the May elections, because "the trenches have been deepened".
As he stated, the message is that the elections can be repeated as many times as necessary, but that the political constellation of forces will be more or less the same.
According to Bešić, there is no alternative to governing.
"Therefore, the absence of an alternative is the strongest argument for the government to be formed regardless of their views and the differences they are talking about," added Bešić.
Speaking about the reasons for the poor result of PES in yesterday's elections, he stated that the party also made a bad result in the elections in May, when it won seven percent of the voters' votes.
Bešić pointed out that national elections can be held on a national, political platform, while good local organization is very important for local ones.
"The local organization and the organization of PES in general is very bad at the local level everywhere. You don't have an organization, you don't have personal contacts of people from your organization with voters, and in that situation you won't get a good result", said Bešić.
He cited the existence of Nikola Jovanović's list as another reason why PES made a bad result back in May.
"I will remind you, PES independently took 20-24 percent in the previous parliamentary elections in Budva. But there was no Jovanovic list in those elections. Therefore, there is no doubt that a large number of PES voters actually voted for Jovanović's list," said Bešić.
He believes that the third reason for the poor result of PES in Budva is the list of Đorđe Zenović, who was the holder of the Democratic list in the previous elections, and who won the support of six percent of the voters.
"The real loss between those two election cycles is two percent, which is not so terrible. "Simply, Zenović, as the previous holder of the list of Democrats, withdrew six, seven percent," said Bešić.
He believes that the results of the elections in Budva cannot affect the negotiations on the formation of the government in Podgorica.
Bešić stated that DPS used to get 75 percent of the votes in Budva.
"In Budva, the localist-clientelistic model is very developed. You can't copy that either to the state or to Podgorica. Therefore, I don't think that it will affect Podgorica, and even the national level in any way", said Bešić.
When asked what the balance of power would be if there were to be a repeat of the elections in Podgorica, Bešić assessed that Jakov Milatović's list would certainly take less than in the September elections.
"The question is whether the Movement for Montenegro would go with the URA at all, because the URA is obviously the big loser of that coalition. In the previous parliamentary elections, URA alone took 6,8 thousand votes, and now with Milatović 8,6 thousand. URI doesn't answer that and she would probably go out alone," said Bešić.
According to his estimation, in the repeated elections in the capital, the URA would take four to six percent of the votes, which is significantly more councilors than they have now.
"I think the biggest loser would be the Milatović list, because they don't even have a solid organization and cannot be satisfied with the election results in any way. Therefore, they would definitely take less," said Bešić.
The question, he adds, is whether DPS would take more.
"But he would probably defend a result of 30 percent. While, in the situation of additional disappointment of this anti-DPS August 30 majority, they can go beyond that", said Bešić.
He added that this is a question even in a situation of high turnout.
"If the anti-DPS voters, who undoubtedly abstained to a small extent this time, disappointed by the conflicts in the anti-DPS bloc, then the PES could also profit," said Bešić.
He said that "DPS would be on its side or stronger, PES with Democrats on its side or stronger, and URA would fictitiously be stronger, but in essence it would be weaker, because in percentages it would not be convincing.
"The biggest loss would be the Movement for Montenegro, because their voters are definitely not satisfied with the results and capacities they made in the previous elections," Bešić said.
When asked whether the legitimacy of the government at the state level was questioned after the elections in Budva and Pidgorica, he answered in the affirmative.
"Not in Budva, but the elections in Podgorica partially delegitimized the government, i.e. called into question the legitimacy of the Government from the point of view of the rating of the parties that make it up, but they also largely delegitimized the President of Montenegro, who won 8,6 thousand with the URA votes, and 70 thousand in the second round of the presidential elections", said Bešić.
He said that the parliamentary majority is stable for now, and will probably be for a few more years.
"We will see what the effects of the Europe now 2 program will be, but also some steps towards the European Union and economic reforms that are being announced, which can hypothetically help in that rating. But they have a stable majority, probably for a few more years, until 2027," said Bešić.
When asked whether, if the parliamentary elections were held now, the results would be similar to the results of the elections in Podgorica and Budva, he said that definitely no one would have a majority, but coalition engagements would have to be resorted to.
"It is quite certain that DPS would probably take more than in the previous parliamentary elections. The movement for Montenegro, which did not show any capacity in Podgorica, would be even weaker, and what would happen to PES and the Democrats is a big question," said Bešić.
According to him, PES will always have better results at the national level than at the local level.
"So the issue of that rating remains open, but it is quite certain that those elections would show that you still have to make some coalition arrangements, so that no one would have some sort of absolute power with partners," Bešić added.
When asked if there is a fear that if the parliamentary elections are organized now, they would have a scenario like in Budva, he said that there is.
"But it seems to me that the government now has stable support and will work on strengthening it over time, while the opposition will work on weakening their authority, and that is something that is normal parliamentary life," said Bešić.
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