The Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) and the former Democratic Front (DF) are growing or stable at the local level because their party structures have consolidated after the change of government in 2020, while this is not the case with civil political actors, between whom there are conflicts and who they have weak party infrastructures.
This stems from the answer given to "Vijesta" by a methodologist and professor at the Faculty of Political Sciences in Belgrade Milos Besic, to the question regarding what is shown by the fact that the rating of DPS and the former DF increases or remains mostly at the same level in larger local polling stations, while parties such as Pokret Evropa Sad (PES), Democratic Montenegro (Democrat ) and the Civic Movement (GP) URA are losing support.
The opposition DPS and the ruling former DF achieved good results on two occasions in the elections in Budva, held last week and in May, as well as in the polling stations in Podgorica at the end of September, while the PES and the Democrats, who are also part of the executive power, and the GP URA, which in the opposition has fallen in rating.
Back two blocks
Bešić told "Vijesta" that the Montenegrin political scene before 2020 was dominated by the DPS on the one hand, and the DF or the parties that gratified around that political alliance on the other, and that the "citizen parties" always had relatively low ratings.
"It went up to about seven, eight percent if you also take the GP URA, formerly the Liberal Alliance, the Movement for Change (PzP) before it became part of the DF... Civic parties had a six to eight percent rating, and never they did not have more than 10 percent", he states.
The professor adds that after the 2020 elections, in which the three-decade rule of the DPS was replaced, the electorate of that party and the former DF was redistributed, as part of the voters of those two political entities approached "moderate civic options".
"First of all, I am thinking of PES and Democratic Montenegro. Those who were 'softer' in their beliefs, in the sense of DPS and Serbian parties, simply moved on," said Bešić.
DPS has been in the opposition since 2020, while DF from the Assembly supported the first post DPS government (headed by Zdravko Krivokapic), while he entered the executive branch for the first time this summer, although he has been part of the current parliamentary majority from the beginning.
The interlocutor states that, in the meantime, the party structures around DPS and DF have consolidated, while in the "citizen block" there is an "active conflict" between several parties. According to him, this conflict is happening between the GP URA - PES and PES - the President of Montenegro Jakov Milatovic, "who has his own party".
"There are active conflicts that weaken those parties, in addition to the fact that they have a much weaker organization to mobilize their voters than these two structures (DPS and former DF). It happens as an effect...", assessed Bešić.
How the votes were cast in Budva and Podgorica
In the elections in Budva, held four days ago, nine mandates were won by two lists that made up the once unique DF, which had absolute power in that coastal municipality for the last two years. List "For the future of Budva" led Mladen Mikijelja won 2.979 votes, 137 more than in May, and "Budva is our city" Nikola Jovanović she got 2.907, that is, 236 more votes.
DPS "earned" 2.522 votes (seven mandates) at the polling stations in Budva, 294 more than in the previous elections.
At the same time, the support of the Democrats and PES alliance in the Budva assembly was halved: until Sunday, they had six councilors in it, and since then three. That coalition won 1.117 votes, 862 less than those two parties earned in total in the May elections, when they ran separately.
However, it should be borne in mind that he ran with the Democrats in the previous elections Đorđe Zenović, who went out on his own on Sunday and achieved an excellent result, together with PES "Nova Budva", which this time was with Mikijel's list.
When the support received by Zenović is added to the Democrats and PES (the effect of the support of "Nova Budva" cannot be calculated), it turns out that the alliance is the prime minister's party Milojko Spajić (PES) and the Deputy Prime Minister Alekse Bečić (Democrats) lost the mandate and 126 votes, which certainly represents a decline.
As for GP URA, that party got 138 fewer votes on Sunday - in May it had 550. Despite this, they retained (one) mandate in the local parliament.
In the elections in May, the former DF had a slight decline compared to the local elections held in 2022, while the DPS won two more mandates. On the other hand, the Democrats won fewer votes but retained their mandates, as did GP URA, and PES, which was not at the polls two years ago, won 1.500 votes less than in the parliamentary elections held in 2023.
When it comes to Podgorica, DPS won 24.309 votes, and a year ago it had 19.274 in the parliamentary elections in the wider alliance. The parties of the former DF together with the Socialist People's Party (SNP), United Montenegro, Prava Montenegro and Free Montenegro won 16.361 votes. Those political actors (not counting United, and Demos, which was in alliance with the SNP) compared to last year's elections, in which they appeared in three columns, won a total of about two and a half thousand more votes than then.
The coalition PES-Democrats received 17.672 votes, while PES in the parliamentary elections in Podgorica with smaller coalition partners had 27.620 - almost ten thousand more. The list of the GP URA, the Movement for Podgorica and PzP, which is close to Milatović, won 8.538 votes - almost two and a half thousand votes less than the GP URA last year with the Democrats.
"Djukanovic and Vucic are getting stronger"
Chief and responsible editor of the weekly "Monitor" Milena Perović, told "Vijesti" that the local elections show that the former DF is growing or that it is stable, and that this automatically means the strengthening of the DPS, which the election results also show.
"Constant insistence on identity issues and topics that divide society and raise tensions on the part of the former DF necessarily cause a counter-reaction - they strengthen the DPS, which presents itself as a civil party, and which has never deviated from its role in the nineties, and has been for decades ruled precisely on divisions and identity issues. It is the fuel of their political strength. Basically, they are getting stronger (President of Serbia Aleksandar) Vucic and (former president of Montenegro and DPS Milo) Djukanovic", she said.
The controversial topics that the interlocutor is talking about, and which the DF insists on or insisted on, are the building of a chapel on Lovcen, the introduction of dual citizenship with Serbia, changing the Constitution to make the Serbian language official, the resolution on the genocide in Jasenovac...
Perović assessed that it is a special and complex question why civic parties do not record significant success. He states that, in addition to numerous factors that should be taken into account, "including the forces of those centers that are trying hard to drag Montenegro away from the EU and those who want to silence the concept of civil society", one must look "into the bowels of our so-called civil lists".
"To what extent are they in fact civil, and how much are they still part of the existing dominant matrices, and perhaps only their more washed-up part. How ready and capable are they for fundamental changes and building a civil and normal society when they get the chance, instead of a compromise dance with the wolves of our past for the sake of party interests and power. I think part of the problem lies right there. At the same time, it is a special question why this society does not lend a hand to those who are a true civic voice, and who are there," states Perović.
Mutual abuse, name-calling, accusations of "setting up" affairs...
The conflict between PES and Milatović, mentioned by Professor Bešić, dates back to when the head of state was in that party.
At the end of February, after several months of disagreements with Prime Minister and PES leader Milojko Spajić, he resigned from all positions in the party, saying that the previous way of working was contrary to the promises and values he had in mind when creating it.
Milatović was the second man (deputy president) of PES, the party he created with Spajić two years ago and which during that time won the presidential and parliamentary elections and took power in several cities, including Podgorica.
The president criticized certain decisions related to the formation of Spajić's government, expressed his dissatisfaction with the manner in which government officials were elected, claimed that it does not reflect the interests of the citizens and criticized its work. PES responded to that with criticism, claiming that Milatović was interfering in the prime minister's work.
Disputes between GP URA and PES have been going on since the formation of Spajić's party in the summer of 2022. At that time, the leader of GP URA Dritan Abazović was the prime minister. PES claimed that GP URA "betrayed the electoral will", that it opposes the "Europe Now" economic program... PES also claimed that Abazović "set up" the Do Kwon affair, after the arrested South Korean "cryptocurrency king" of the same name wrote to the addresses of several officials and functionaries at the time about alleged business arrangements with Spajić and the financing of PES.
On the other hand, since PES came to power, GP URA has been accusing Spajić's party of collapsing public finances, the security sector, and party hiring...
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