The extreme change in the relationship of the United States of America (USA) towards Europe is perhaps the most significant turn on the global political scene since the end of the Cold War. In such a situation, when one order is potentially being destroyed and a new one is being created, small states like Montenegro should be cautious and wait for the outcome of the global battle. However, perhaps, in the current circumstances, we should turn even more strongly to the European Union (EU), but without severing all ties with the USA.
This is how the interlocutors of "Vijesti" answer the question - where is the place of Montenegro, but also of other former Yugoslav republics, in the new geopolitical circumstances, caused by the moves of the first man of the USA Donald Trump (Republican Party).
The new-old president of that country, in just over a month in office, has made a sharp turn in US policy towards Europe, making a complete departure from the policy of his predecessor. Joseph Biden (Democratic Party). Among other things, he accused Ukraine, which Russia invaded three years ago, of being guilty of that war, its president Volodymyr Zelensky called him a "dictator", agreeing with the Russian head of state Vladimir Putin end to that conflict, and without inviting either Zelensky or European leaders to negotiate on it. Trump, in addition, is the Prime Minister of Great Britain Kira Starmera and the French president Emanuel Macron accused them of doing nothing to end the war in Ukraine.
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At the same time, the Vice President of the United States JD Vance He sharply criticized Europe, saying he was concerned about its “distancing… from some of its most fundamental values.” In this regard, he criticized the annulment of the presidential election in Romania (in December of last year), the prosecution of anti-abortion protesters in the United Kingdom, the exclusion from political life, or rather the marginalization of far-right and far-left politicians in Germany…
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Because of all this, some foreign policy commentators say that the survival of NATO has been called into question, claiming that there is a fear that American military forces in Europe could be reduced or withdrawn, leaving the east of the continent vulnerable.
All of the above raises questions: how should Podgorica, a member of the Alliance, which is in an advanced stage of negotiations for EU accession, position itself in the face of new global circumstances, can we talk more about the unity of policies between Washington and Brussels, what could Trump's turnaround bring to Europe, and what to the Balkans...
Between the hammer and the anvil
Foreign policy journalist Bosko Jaksic, told "Vijesti" that we are witnessing dramatic changes in global relations, and that Trump's "open conflict with the Europeans" is something that places the entire area of the former Yugoslavia, and therefore Montenegro, in a "very delicate situation."
"We need to avoid Podgorica finding itself between the American anvil and the European hammer, or vice versa. So, the natural commitment of the entire Western Balkans is Europe, but there is a risk that this commitment to Europe will be targeted by the Americans, because Trump is very vengeful. That is why I think the key word is caution," he noted.
Jakšić said that "European integration" and "transatlantic alliances", as they were formed after World War II, are practically on the verge of destruction, and that the creation of a "new world" is on the horizon. He said that he thinks that Trump, based on everything he has seen so far, will demand a direct commitment - "you are either for Europe or for the USA".
"It sounds like a paradox, but it seems that those who side with the world's autocrats and despots, including Putin or (Hungarian Prime Minister) will now fare better with his policies." Victor) Orban, than the supporters of liberal democracy will pass. This is a time for small countries to lie low and wait to see how the global battle goes. And I am afraid that we will have to wait at least four years. It will be a complex and difficult period, which will require diplomatic skills and political tact," the interlocutor said.
Diplomat and professor of international relations Vesko Garcevic, he assessed that changes of a "tectonic nature" are taking place on the global stage - perhaps, he said, the most significant since the fall of communism in 1989.
He stated that the US, under Trump, will pursue a policy based on "transactional interests", and that this region will be even lower on the scale of Washington's interests than usual. He argues that in the current circumstances, if Podgorica's goal is to become an EU member, it should additionally turn towards this community and make it "the basis of its orientation when it comes to foreign policy".
"Small states should try to find a way to find their place in all of this as painlessly as possible and to avoid the blows that could result from these tectonic disturbances on a global level. In my opinion, that should be a little more attachment to the EU, that we follow that path a little more, which does not mean that we should now sever all ties with America," Garčević told "Vijesti".
However, he emphasized that he has the impression that the Montenegrin political scene is so preoccupied with itself and its own issues that it does not actually see itself as "collateral damage in a big game."
"So, it would be better to approach this a little more cautiously and better understand the trends currently in the world...", Garčević added.
He explained how Montenegro could become "collateral damage":
"The following could happen - that some agreement is reached between Russia and America over Ukraine, that this means stopping the fighting in Ukraine, and that within the framework of that agreement it is declared neutral and its future in the EU becomes hazy. Someone could then say that the geopolitical circumstances have completely changed and that the EU will no longer be interested in enlargement after that. In this respect, you could become a victim of geopolitical developments..."
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Milatović: EU priority, cooperation with the US
The only Montenegrin official who has so far, albeit indirectly, spoken about the changing geopolitical situation is the Minister of Foreign Affairs. Ervin Ibrahimovic (Bosniak Party). In an interview with the "Mina" agency, published on Saturday, he said that his department is monitoring "dynamic geopolitical circumstances" and that he (Ibrahimović) believes that they "go against Montenegro's ambition to be a member of the EU by 2028."
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"News" are the heads of state, parliament and government - Jakov Milatović, Andrija Mandić (New Serbian Democracy) and Milojko Spajić (Europe Now Movement) - asked how Podgorica should position itself in relation to new geopolitical developments and whether they agreed with Ibrahimović's assessment, and the answer came only from Milatović's Public Relations Office.
She stated that Montenegro "remains committed to its own national interests", primarily the process of joining the European Union "as an absolute foreign policy priority", which, she says, regardless of the current policy of the White House, will entail continued cooperation with the US "as a strategic ally".
"Our task is clear, it is reform-oriented, with the aim of closing the remaining negotiation chapters by the end of 2026, so that we can officially become a new EU member state by 2028, which is our proclaimed strategic goal that the President of Montenegro has been advocating since he was elected to that position. All of this implies alignment with the EU's common foreign and security policy, which we will continue to credibly follow," Milatović's office said.
She told "Vijesti" that, in the new circumstances, it seems more necessary than ever before to "strengthen European unity and strengthen the EU's position as an actor on the global political scene."
"In this sense, it is not to be expected that the EU will 'withdraw into itself' in response to these geopolitical changes, stop enlargement and leave the Western Balkans to the influence of third parties after a clear plan for its integration," it said.
What will be Europe's response?
Whether the EU will "withdraw into itself" is not yet clear, but it is certain that it is preparing a response to Trump's moves, as announced by the candidate for German Chancellor. Friedrich MertzThe day before yesterday, after the election results were announced in which he triumphed, he said that his main priority would be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible, "so that we can gradually achieve true independence in relation to the USA."
He also warned that Europe must urgently strengthen its defenses and possibly even find a replacement for NATO, within a few months.
Boško Jakšić says that the question of what should be the response to Trump is a million-dollar question. According to him, Europe is too weak - technologically and economically, and especially militarily - to be able to effectively respond to the first man of the USA. He states that the threats he has made will influence Europe to "organize in some way, to try to establish much more unity, including that old idea of Macron about establishing a European army".
"However, it is a process that will take a very long time and would cost at least $400 billion, according to some current estimates. For Europe to become a global player, even in terms of security, is something that takes a lot of time, and Trump is not interested in giving it the chance to stand on the same level as the big players. Europe is in a very bad position and it seems to me that, in recent decades, it has never been weaker than it is now...", the interlocutor concludes.
Garčević says that Europe, whether it likes it or not, will have to strengthen its security capacities and turn more towards itself.
"Europe will be under pressure, and this will certainly influence it to try to find unity within itself, to clearly formulate goals, which will not be easy, because within Europe itself there are different views on how to relate to America...", he added.
Jakšić: Bargaining is driven only by profit
Jakšić assesses that Trump's approach to international politics is financial in nature, and that "American profit" is behind his solution to all problems.
"We see that this profit is based on his relationship with Putin and Zelensky. We could see his interest in profit at the time of the Washington Agreements of 2020, when he reduced the normalization of relations between Serbia and Kosovo to economic cooperation. But this region is financially uninteresting to Trump. No one here has anything to offer, any serious business. It could be reduced to the fact that his son-in-law will build a hotel in Belgrade, but that is not something too much to gain Trump's favor," he says.
Garčević: I do not believe that Trump will question Kosovo's independence
When asked whether Trump would be willing to withdraw US military forces from Kosovo, Jakšić replied that it was entirely possible and that it would have "destabilizing effects on the entire region."
"The danger from Trump has just begun," he notes.
Garčević also does not rule out the possibility of withdrawing military forces, adding that Trump's policy is unpredictable.
"So you can't say anything... Rational thinking tells me that some consistent American policies regarding the Balkans, such as the integrity of Bosnia and Herzegovina or the independence of Kosovo, will not be questioned. I wouldn't expect it to go that far, to even overturn such things," Garčević concludes.
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