Many in the government's only goal is to retain their positions, and this is easier to do if they "keep a tight grip" on the Prime Minister through tense relations. Milojko Spajić, who will also make decisions in the current negotiations to resolve the political crisis that satisfy the ruling majority and do not lead to compromise with the opposition.
This was assessed by the interlocutors of ''Vijesti'', analyzing the position of the first man in the executive branch in the political crisis and talks with opposition parties about the possibility of resolving it. The crisis was caused by the decision of the parliamentary majority, without the mandatory notification of the Constitutional Court, to state in mid-December last year Dragani Đuranović termination of the judicial function in that institution.
While the talks are expected to continue, which could happen at the end of this week or the beginning of next week, the Prime Minister's colleagues from part of the ruling majority - the former Democratic Front (DF) - are telling him that he must not agree to "condition the opposition."
"It is up to the parliamentary majority and the Government to finally show that we are the government, and not to bow down to every blackmail and ultimatum, even from those who have been destroying Montenegro for decades," said the New Serbian Democracy (NSD) MP three days ago. Jovan Vučurović.
Between two fires
Docent at the University "Donja Gorica" Nikoleta Djukanovic, claims that Spajić is currently caught between two "fires" - blackmail from the former DF, on which he depends to remain in power, and fulfilling the requirements for EU integration, and adds that it is to be assumed that he will, as before, side with the former in order to keep his seat.
"I think that in this situation, as in all previous ones, Spajić will make a solution that will favor satisfying the ruling majority, rather than doing something that is in favor of the citizens, or in favor of democracy and the EU... He only meets the minimum standards, or rather, he does not make decisions in favor of the citizens, but of the DF," she told "Vijesti".
Program associate at the Center for Civic Education (CGO) Nikola Mirkovic, said that everything that has been seen so far indicates that the prime minister does not have the strength to go against any issue that is important to the head of parliament and one of the leaders of the former DF, Andrija Mandić.
"Of all the actors of the ruling majority, as well as in relation to the president of the state (Jakov Milatović"), the President of the Parliament and the Prime Minister, it is clear that the President of the Parliament is dominant," Mirković assessed for "Vijesti".
Spajić and the leaders of the opposition Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) and Social Democrats (SD), Danijel Zivkovic i Damir Sehovic, discussed on Monday evening the possibilities of overcoming the crisis. The meeting was hosted by the Head of the Delegation of the European Union (EU) to Montenegro Johan SattlerThe meeting did not resolve the key contentious issue between the government and the opposition, which is the agreement that needs to be reached to normalize the work of the Parliament after the expiration of the sentence for opposition MPs who were removed from the plenary hall for preventing the session at which the budget was supposed to be decided (which was ultimately adopted).
According to "Vijesti", the previously almost concluded agreement for the Venice Commission to provide an opinion on the Đuranović case, which everyone would accept, has also become complicated. DPS insists that the government sign an agreement with the opposition that would introduce a moratorium on amendments to the Constitution and the Law on Montenegrin Citizenship (which is advocated by the former DF), because it believes that this is not discussed precisely enough in the government's platform "Barometer 26", which it is offering for signature. On the other hand, Spajić's Europe Now Movement (PES) claims that DPS rejects this document because it "wants to continue the identity campaign".
DPS is not "on the right side"
Đukanović stated that one of Spajić's explicit actions was to satisfy the ruling majority, or rather, to disrespect EU values - the failure to pass a law on gender identity recognition, which the Government should have initiated with the Parliament, and which the EU requires.
"Spajić always chooses the side that will allow him to gain power, not some principles or the realization of what he stands for. The case of that law is an explicit example of weighing the European will, or the will for European reforms, in which Spajić agreed to Mandić's game, who demanded that the proposal be put ad act," she said.
She notes, however, that she does not believe that what the opposition is asking of Spajić is "pro-European and rational", because, she says, "no matter how much they call themselves European, they are not pro-European".
"DPS is just using this situation and the moment to go against them, so it turns out that they are 'on the right side'. When they were in power, they did the same anti-European things...", adds Đukanović.
When asked what would happen if Spajić did not reach an agreement with the opposition on resolving the crisis, she replied that this was something that already exists in parliament and that the DF calls "majority rule", which, she says, suits them best.
"But 'majority rule' - when the rule of law collapses, laws are not respected and good laws are not passed - grows into tyranny of the majority. Democracy is not just majority rule. This situation is most favorable to the DF, that they have the majority to push through the back door everything they think is necessary. It seems as if this blockade is unwelcome, that reconciliation is important, but there is a lot of hypocrisy here, because all those who criticize some parties for basing their programs on divisions, for favoring these topics - are precisely the parties that favor this at the same time," Đukanović concludes.
Nikola Mirković stated that, if the opposition and the government do not reach an agreement, everything will function as before - that the state of permanent political crisis will continue, with one question: "how long will this controlled chaos last, or what and when can cause this constellation to get out of control?"
The EU Delegation told Vijesti this week that it is up to political actors to reach an agreement on sending a request for an opinion to the Venice Commission and commit to respecting it. A Vijesti interlocutor from DPS said that he thinks they will manage to reach an agreement with PES on addressing "the Venetians, but that the issue of an agreement is open."
Flirting with DPS limited
Mirković assesses that PES's occasional flirtation with DPS is of limited scope, and that the former DF, or rather "Mandić and the authorities in Belgrade", sets the boundaries in this, and that Spajić "has neither the courage nor the strength to resist it, even at the cost of a continuous decline in support for his own party".
"All of this points to the impossibility or very low chances of an agreement between the government and the opposition, because the government is heterogeneous and too interdependent, and in addition dependent on external undemocratic actors. The party led by the Prime Minister has the least experience in political processes, and does not show that it is learning or creating broader coalitions or partnerships in society. Also, a significant number of PES MPs are ideologically closer to Mandić than to Spajić, with the reservation that it is difficult to define the scope of the ideology that Spajić affirms," the interlocutor notes.
When it comes to negotiations between Spajić and the opposition, Mirković said that one should not expect either party to immediately accept everything, because, he says, that would make their position weaker, so, according to him, it is more realistic for there to be multiple rounds of talks in order to find a compromise.
He reminds that the process of amending the Constitution is not simple and that, in order to change the part relating to state symbols, not only a two-thirds majority is required, but also a referendum in which at least three-fifths of registered voters would vote in favor of these changes.
"That is why the statements by the leader of the NSD and the Speaker of the Parliament, Mandić, and the leader of the DNP, Knežević, that they only plan to 'amend' the Constitution and that it only requires half an hour of work in the Parliament are very dangerous, so it is not surprising that the opposition is demanding additional guarantees that it will not go in that direction," says Mirković.
Also, as he adds, one must know what issues are negotiable and what are not.
"It is clear that the opposition views the issues of language and citizenship through the framework of protecting state interests, and this significantly and justifiably narrows the space for negotiations," said Mirković.
No guarantees against unilateral moves
The interlocutor also reminds that "Barometer 26", which the Government adopted in mid-December, also addresses identity issues, although imprecisely and without adequate guarantees that "unilateral actions by the ruling parties that have a significant majority in the Parliament will not be taken."
"Also, 'Barometer 26' has not yet received the full support of all the ruling parties, so it does not have the legitimacy to be the Government's starting point for negotiations with the opposition. It is a sparse document that contains everything that Brussels would like to read, but at the same time is devoid of content and the strength to overcome the differences between the government and the opposition or unite all government constituents in a sincere determination towards the goal of EU accession," he said.
Mirković states that all of this does not promise much and that the Prime Minister, if he wants to present himself as an actor, needs to enter these processes more prepared.
"His position is quite weak and in order to strengthen it, he must enter negotiations more systematically and with greater preparation," he underlines.
Barometer 26 states that all signatories commit to supporting the fulfillment of obligations from the "European agenda", to promoting "a political atmosphere of dialogue, cooperation and compromise", to leaving "polarizing issues" ("identity issues and other issues that may cause ethnic or religious tensions or destabilize the national security of Montenegro") to a "special mechanism for resolving these issues", which includes working groups, as well as parliamentary committees where the given topics will be addressed with expert support from the academic community...
However, Spajić did not offer the document to anyone for signature, and some constituents of the executive branch said they would not sign it. Mandić once indirectly said in parliament that he would not do so either.
The opposition obstructed the work of the Parliament at the end of last year because the ruling majority did not accept their request to annul the conclusion of the Constitutional Committee and Mandić's statement that Dragana Đuranović's office had ceased because she had fulfilled the conditions for retirement under the Law on Pension and Disability Insurance. The opposition claims that the Constitutional Committee and Mandić have taken over the jurisdiction of the Constitutional Court.
"Spajić to get out of hostage status"
Head of the DPS Parliamentary Club Andrija Nikolić, assessed the day before yesterday that it was important for Spajić to "finally emerge from the hostage status in which Mandić and the NSD are holding him."
In an interview with Television Nikšić, he said that Montenegro needs an agreement between the parliamentary opposition and the government, in order to stop "the constant production of crises and provocative and dangerous situations authored by Mandić and his allies."
PES responded yesterday that the honorary president of DPS Milo Djukanovic "does not allow" his party to accept "Barometer 26".
PES Secretary General and Vice President of the Assembly Boris Pejović, announced that only after several months, DPS and the opposition are proposing what "Barometer 26" had already defined, "so the thesis that PES is someone's political hostage is completely meaningless."
GP URA distances itself from DPS: "It's harmful for us to 'stick' with them"
Although he was at the forefront of the recent parliamentary blockades, which led to him being called the leader of the opposition by the ruling majority, the head of the Civic Movement (GP) URA, Dritan Abazović, did not attend the meeting with Spajić, which was held at the premises of the EU Delegation, with his colleagues from the DPS and SD.
A source for "Vijesti" from the URA Police Station claims that Živković spoke with Abazović both before and after the meeting, but that the URA Police Station's decision was to "stand aside" in this case.
"Because this 'sticking' with DPS is really hurting us," said the interviewee.
Another source from Abazović's party claims that in the last month there has been a "closer relationship between PES and DPS", and that therefore it suits his party to be "outside these trends".
There is no excuse not to write "to the Venetians"
The Basic Court in Podgorica announced yesterday that it does not have jurisdiction to proceed in the case of Dragana Đuranović, who sued the Parliament to annul the decision to terminate her office.
It is stated that the Basic Court, in its first instance decision, declared itself "absolutely incompetent" to act in that case and that all actions taken were cancelled, and that the lawsuit with the proposal for a temporary measure (in which Đuranović requested to be reinstated) was dismissed.
On February 12, Đuranović filed a lawsuit against the Assembly with the Basic Court in Podgorica because it determined that her judicial function had been terminated pursuant to the Law on Pension and Disability Insurance (PIO), and not pursuant to the Labor Law.
Prime Minister Spajić said last night, commenting on the Basic Court's decision, that he was calling on the opposition to return to parliament and to jointly adopt "laws needed for the EU."
As "Vijesti" reported on Wednesday, Spajić's proposal to seek the opinion of the "Venetians" was allegedly acceptable at the meeting with Živković and Šehović, but the Prime Minister said that because of his "Talibans for the rule of law", he found it objectionable that Đuranović had sued the Parliament in the meantime, "so it would not be good to degrade domestic courts".
Given that the Basic Court dismissed the lawsuit, this should mean that there is no longer any excuse not to invite the Venice Commission. However, Spajić did not say a word about it last night in a post on the “Iks” website.
The authorities are responding that there is no agreement.
Nikola Mirković assesses that the situation without an agreement on resolving the crisis is mostly the fault of the authorities, and especially "those constituents who are not sincere advocates for Montenegro's European path, but only declarative ones, and for whom it is most important to retain their levers of power."
According to him, the responsible authorities should already be concerned about the legitimacy of their decisions, given that the Assembly is not working at full capacity, but he believes that they will continue to use all possible mechanisms to implement their agenda.
"As for the part of the government's constituents who are from minority parties, it seems that time is not working in their favor and that they will have to decide which team they sit on," he said.
Nikoleta Đukanović assessed that the more controversial the political fate of Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, a former DF ally, in Serbia due to the protests he is facing, the more, in her words, the DF is trying to implement its goals "as a kind of compensation."
"As crucial as the question of how Vučić will be perceived in Serbia is, no less important is what his political fate will be in Montenegro. It seems to me that recently the DF has started to push the issue of language and citizenship more, because that would shape the election results in their favor in the long term," Đukanović notes.
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