Bosnia was shaking, will a mouse be born?

Conviction of the first man of Republika Srpska (RS) Milorad Dodik due to the failure to implement the decisions of the High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), will not bring instability to either the region or Montenegro, despite calls from numerous political actors to react sharply to it.

This was assessed by the interlocutors of "Vijesti", answering the question of whether the Dodik case could cause instability in Montenegro and the neighborhood, taking into account, among other things, that some politicians from Podgorica are calling for a "unified and strong response" to the verdict.

This was announced on Wednesday, when Dodik was handed down his first-instance verdict, the leader of the Democratic People's Party (DNP) said. Milan Knezevic, saying that the decision made by the Court of BiH represents "a shot at the Dayton Agreement", which ended the war in BiH.

"The narrative about Serbs as the immediate culprits for everything that is happening in the Balkans deserves a unique and strong response. If we allow history to repeat itself, then we should not even exist as a people," he wrote on the "X" network.

Knežević did not respond to the newspaper's question about what a "unique and strong response" means, saying that he does not make statements for "Vijesti".

The verdict was also commented on in a milder tone by his colleague from the former Democratic Front (DF), the head of the Assembly and the New Serbian Democracy (NSD). Andrija Mandic, stating that it brings political instability and does not contribute to preserving the Dayton Agreement.

"Respecting Dayton and preserving peace is the most important thing for BiH, as well as for the region... Different views and interpretations should not be the reason for restricting the freedom of choice of RS citizens, as well as their right to vote and be elected," Mandić stated on "Iks".

A MESSAGE FROM THE USA CHANGED EVERYTHING

Diplomat and former Ambassador of Serbia to Belarus and Bulgaria Srećko Đukić, assessed that the verdict against Dodik would not result in any destabilization.

"It will not cause any instability in either RS ​​or BiH, and why would it in Montenegro? Didn't you watch Dodik's speech in Banja Luka the night before last, which was not only in a conciliatory tone, but he tried to present himself as the most cooperative factor in that country and among those peoples. And everything was expected and planned to be different until the message from the State Department arrived - that they support the court, the judge and the verdict against Dodik," Đukić told "Vijesti".

The Court of BiH sentenced the President of the Bosnian and Herzegovina entity to a one-year prison sentence and a six-year ban on exercising the office of President of the Republika Srpska from the date the verdict became final, for signing presidential decrees declaring two unconstitutional laws of the Republika Srpska valid, which the High Representative of the International Community Christian Schmidt previously annulled. These are laws on the non-application of decisions of the Constitutional Court of BiH and decisions of the High Representative on the territory of the RS.

If the verdict becomes final, Dodik will no longer be able to run for any public office. However, he will be able to avoid going to prison, as the sentence of up to one year can be replaced with a fine.

Despite harsh assessments immediately after the verdict was pronounced, Dodik announced yesterday that he and the Prime Minister of RS Radovan Viskovic sent an invitation for talks to the President of the Federation of BiH Lidija Bradari and the Prime Minister of the FBiH Nermin Nikšić, to come to Banja Luka at a time convenient for them, "to discuss the implementation of the Dayton Peace Agreement and its original principles."

WORRY AND ANXIETY

Analyst at the Friedrich Ebert Foundation from Banja Luka Tanja Topic, told "Vijesti" that the verdict has raised quite a storm in the political life of BiH and that the citizens there, although political actors guarantee them security and call for peace, are at the same time worried and upset.

"While talks and negotiations are being offered, the RS parliament is urgently discussing laws that prohibit state institutions - such as the prosecutor's office, the court, the Investigation and Protection Agency - from working on the territory of RS," said Topić.

The National Assembly of Republika Srpska (NARS) adopted a law last night, which prohibits the activities of the Court and Prosecutor's Office of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Investigation and Protection Agency of BiH (SIPA), and the High Judicial and Prosecutorial Council of BiH (HJPC) on the territory of Republika Srpska.

The law establishing the High Judicial and Prosecutorial Council of the Republika Srpska (HJPC) was also adopted, which is to take over the powers of the HJPC of BiH, i.e. to prescribe the powers, conditions and mandate for the exercise of judicial and prosecutorial functions, as well as the appointment and transfer of judges and public prosecutors. Amendments to the Criminal Code of the Republika Srpska have also been given the “green light”, according to which all RS officials who do not respect the decisions of entity bodies and institutions in BiH will be prosecuted, for which they are threatened with prison sentences of six months to five years, as well as a ban on holding public office.

Topić believes that the decision regarding Dodik cannot jeopardize stability in the region to the extent that neighboring countries interfere in the internal affairs of BiH and support radical steps.

"According to the laws being discussed, those who do not leave these state institutions and are Serbs from RS could end up in prison. Everything will, in fact, depend on the reaction of international community officials...", she claims.

THE GOVERNMENT IS SILENT

Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA), Government and President of Montenegro Jakov Milatovic did not answer questions from "Vijesti" yesterday about their position on the Dodik verdict, or whether it could cause instability. The newspaper also asked the Government and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs whether they remained in their previous position of unquestioningly respecting the unity, territorial integrity and sovereignty of BiH, as well as the decisions of the courts of that country, taking into account the messages from the NSD and the DNP.

Deputy Prime Minister for Foreign and European Affairs and former Foreign Minister Filip Ivanovic, told "Vijesti" that he had no comment on this topic, referring the newspaper to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Prime Minister's Office. Milojko Spajić.

In addition to the NSD and DNP, the Socialist People's Party (SNP) also reacted to the Dodik verdict. Vladimir Joković, announcing yesterday that it represents "a serious disregard for the Dayton Agreement and a return to a period of instability in the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina."

"This verdict reflects the principle - 'the judge sues you, the judge judges you', but we still hope that a way will be found to protect the electoral will of the citizens of RS who elected Dodik as their president, and that the immunity he is entitled to as president will be taken into account," the SNP said.

The party also said that at this moment, "more than ever," "peace, stability and wisdom in every decision are needed, in order to preserve regional harmony and good neighborly relations among the peoples and states of the former Yugoslavia."

Dodik yesterday called the BiH court and prosecutor's office "a legal mess that has only created problems, which is why this issue now needs to be resolved." He added that the RS will no longer respect the decisions of the High Judicial and Prosecutorial Council.

"We will invite Serbs from RS who are in the High Judicial and Prosecutorial Council of BiH to move to the High Judicial and Prosecutorial Council of RS. Those who want to stay there should move to Sarajevo," he said, among other things.

Djukic: Some would do a historic thing for their people to leave voluntarily

Srećko Đukić assessed that the time has come to remove from the political scene people who are unable to solve a single problem for many years, and to make way for new generations of politicians.

"We constantly live under the stress of incompetent leaders, who threaten us with new crises, separations, divisions, borders... It is high time to put a stop to this," he said.

Đukić stated that these are "stories we have been hearing for almost 40 years", and that some should ask themselves why this is so, "from 'Greater Serbia' to the 'Serbian world'".

"We live in the Balkans, on the territory of the former SFRY, with a multitude of peoples. And this is only happening to us - why? We must respect others, so that they respect us. I would really first tidy up my own yard, without any pretensions towards others, with respect, and I would not be interested in anything else. Today's generation of politicians would do a historic thing for their people, to voluntarily leave the political scene with their baggage," he stated.