Montenegro's chance to show they're alive: Will the EU have time to deal with enlargement while relations with the US are strained?

The enlargement of the European Union (EU) is the only opportunity for it, at a time of geopolitical changes and the redefinition of relations with the United States of America (USA), to show that the European project is alive and vibrant, and that it is still a reality for those who are truly committed to reform and democratization.

This was told to "Vijesti" by a professor at Johns Hopkins University in Washington. Siniša Vuković, answering the question of whether the EU will have time to deal with Montenegro at a time when Europe is drifting apart from the US, resolving the issue of the war in Ukraine, and planning the formation of its military forces.

Vuković said that in this "very delicate geopolitical moment", the EU must keep its focus on multiple fields.

"It is no longer a matter of choice, but of elementary rationality. As far as Montenegro is concerned, there are encouraging messages that continuously underline the expectation that Montenegrin membership in the EU is taken as not only a serious, but above all a likely possibility," he assessed.

Relations between the US and the EU have cooled significantly in recent weeks, especially over the war in Ukraine and US tariffs on all European goods, announced by the new-old US president. Donald trampHe, among other things, accused Ukraine, which Russia attacked three years ago, of being guilty of that war, its president Volodymyr Zelensky called him a "dictator", agreeing with the Russian head of state Vladimir Putin on ending the conflict, and not inviting either Zelensky or European leaders to negotiate on it. Trump, in addition, is the Prime Minister of Great Britain Kira Starmera and the French president Emanuel Macron accused them of doing nothing to end the war in Ukraine.

He announced a 25 percent tariff on all European goods and a cut in military aid to Ukraine as soon as he took office in January. Later, he demanded that Ukraine secure $500 billion worth of rare earth minerals as part of a yet-to-be-signed deal as repayment for financial aid the United States provided to Kiev during its war with Russia.

MONTENEGRO - CHANCE BRUSSELS

In response to the radical change in US relations towards Europe, a summit of European leaders was held in London on Sunday, where they discussed the protection and support of Ukraine, and at which the possibility of forming a European military force was announced.

Siniša Vuković stated that the continuation of EU enlargement would be a message not only to the region, but also to the wider EU environment - including Ukraine, that the Union is not closing, but opening up towards its neighborhood, and that everyone has a chance to realize their European project.

"Therefore, Montenegro, which is currently the least problematic and systemically easiest for integration processes, represents a promising opportunity that Brussels wants to use for its geopolitical repositioning," he said.

According to Vuković, it is a paradox that this process is intensifying at a time when "the intentions of the authorities in Montenegro are at best rhetorical, and in reality very unenthusiastic, even Euro-cynical, illiberal and authoritarian". He adds that Brussels, for now, is showing "an unexpectedly persistent dose of strategic patience with decision-makers in Podgorica".

"Despite all the deviant and self-destructive behavior of the Montenegrin authorities, Brussels still adheres to the previously set goal of creating a positive geopolitical example from Montenegro and sending a message that the European project has not disappeared. In such circumstances, it is to be expected that the EU will not ignore the situation in Podgorica and allow it to completely get out of control," Vuković stated, adding that it is clear to everyone that the EU "wants Montenegro as a member more than the current authorities in Podgorica want it."

"So it is to be expected that the EU will prefer less the role of public arbitrator, and focus more on secret diplomacy and political pressure behind the scenes," the interlocutor said.

IGNORED THE EXPANSION WOULD BE A LUXURY

The Montenegrin ruling and opposition parties agree that the current geopolitical challenges and disrupted relations between the EU and the US do not have to negatively affect Montenegro.

Democratic MP and member of the Parliamentary Committee on International Relations Dusko Stjepović He told "Vijesti" that, despite all the challenges, Montenegro's integration process into the EU "has never been faster, more efficient and more substantial since the opening of negotiations."

"The message that the enlargement process is alive and that the EU is breathing heavily through it and is a significant factor on the world stage is no less important now than it was before the apparently different views of Europe and the US on the resolution of the war in Ukraine. And that message will continue to be most easily sent by Montenegro's membership in the largest and most significant family of European states," he assessed.

He states that there are noticeable challenges in terms of certain different views regarding the hotbeds of war in the world between "our European and American partners", especially, as he said, the one on Europe's eastern border, but adds that this will not divert the EU's focus from the enlargement process, "because the Brussels administration is so large and structured that any developments will not divert the attention of those in the EU whose portfolio is exclusively enlargement to new members".

Secretary General of the Civic Movement (GP) URA Mileta Radovanić He estimates that he does not believe that Montenegro will be removed from the enlargement agenda, even though the EU is going through complex geopolitical challenges.

"On the contrary, the EU should, in parallel, work on strengthening its internal resilience and implementing the enlargement policy, because the two things are connected," he told "Vijesti".

He argues that a stable and integrated Western Balkans contributes to strengthening European security.

"It is our obligation and responsibility to use this moment to accelerate reforms and show that we are ready for membership. However, we must do the job that is in our hands properly, because we cannot expect to become the next member if we do not implement the reforms to the end, and in the right way," he warned, adding that he believes that Europe today cannot afford the luxury of ignoring enlargement and that it must respond to geopolitical challenges, but at the same time complete the process of European integration of the region.

THE EU WILL HAVE TO RE-ARRANGE PRIORITIES

The Social Democrats (SD) say they believe that the latest developments and positions, primarily the US's military aggression against Ukraine, will cause tectonic shifts in Europe, and that the EU will certainly have to rearrange its priorities and take on greater responsibility. However, they add that this does not necessarily have to have a negative impact on Montenegro's European integration.

"An agreement between the member states and the UK is underway, after which we will find out what the EU will focus on and what the strategy will be. We can already see that there will be an insistence on stronger alliances and collective security, through the formation of European military forces. In this sense, the EU's focus is not so much a concern, as the fact that the current Government of Montenegro and the parliamentary majority have value positions that are far from those that dominate within the EU," the SD said.

It can be expected, they say, that the EU, as part of its new positioning on the global stage, will seek to further strengthen the alliance on its continent, and that it will probably not have much understanding and patience for some of the things it has tolerated regarding Montenegro. They add that the Government and the ruling majority have “a big problem, because a significant part of them fully supports the Kremlin’s policy, while a significant part also supports the current policy of Donald Trump, and only a small part of that majority supports the current policy of the EU and Great Britain.”

"If we want to maintain the focus on Montenegro's EU membership, this Government, or rather its constituents, will have to value-align positions and policies on the ground with Brussels and London. That will be extremely difficult, because this Government, at best, can pursue a policy similar to that of (the Hungarian Prime Minister)." Viktor Orban"For a candidate country, this is a disastrous policy, which leaves no room for progress towards EU membership," warned the SD.

Following the failed meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky in Washington on Friday, a summit of European leaders and top NATO officials was held in London over the weekend. Zelensky also attended the summit. The meeting agreed that military aid to Ukraine must continue, that Kiev must be at the table during negotiations with Russia, that Europe work to deter any future Russian moves against Ukraine, and that a “coalition of the willing” be formed to defend and guarantee peace in Ukraine after an agreement is reached.

The United States did not participate in the London talks. The summit was planned before Zelensky and Trump clashed in a highly tense meeting in Washington.

President of the European Commission Ursula von der Lajen She said after the summit that Europe urgently needs to rearm again and that EU member states need more fiscal space to increase defense spending. She also said that Europe needs to show the US that it is ready to defend democracy.