The recomposition of global geopolitical power will have consequences for the entire civilization, and the European Union (EU) and NATO will find themselves facing a test of unity and collective resilience, said the Executive Director of the Strategic Policy Council, Nikola Lunić.
He believes that building a European security architecture will be Europe's priority in the coming period.
"There is no doubt that Europe's priority will be to build a European security architecture that must be based on operational capabilities and an industrial base for defense production," Lunić said in an interview with the MINA agency.
According to him, countries that are not EU members, such as Norway, Great Britain and Turkey, also want to contribute to such a security context in Europe.
Lunić said that we can only hope that the recomposition of global geopolitical power that is currently underway will not be realized through a global conflict.
"In such situations, work is being done to increase all the capabilities of each nation and strengthen the cohesion of alliances," Lunić said.
As he said, both the EU and NATO will face a test of unity and collective resilience.
"If the trust of member states is not restored and strengthened, then these organizations will also suffer the fate of the League of Nations, which de facto disappeared in 1939 and formally in 1946," said Lunić.
According to him, we are witnessing the withering away of the United Nations (UN), which has irreversibly lost credibility due to its inability to reform itself, and this will not only affect Europe in the security context, but also in the entire spectrum of the strategic framework for each individual country.
As Lunić assessed, various indicators point to an upcoming time of instability that requires quick, decisive and responsible measures, primarily in the area of security.
"Europe has realized this and is sharply increasing military spending, which should not please anyone. But it is an inevitable measure for the purpose of defense and deterrence, and at the expense of the further pace of development in many areas," said Lunić.
He believes that the real goal of the Donald Trump administration's diplomatic narrative regarding the future of NATO was to change the position of many European countries regarding the size of their military budgets.
"If that's the case, they managed to change Europe's perception of its own security, and that's good," Lunić pointed out.
Europe, he said, has learned the lessons of history well when it comes to Ukraine and knows that giving in to the aggressor does not lead to peace, but rather that the aggressor considers it weakness and increases its appetite.
According to Lunić, when it comes to aggression against Ukraine, Western allies must agree if they want the Alliance to be based on the principles of reliability, trust and predictability.
When asked what kind of future Ukraine can be expected to have, Lunić emphasized that the future of Ukraine is essentially the future of Europe.
"The size of the territory and all the available resources mean nothing if we do not have before us the values we follow and the principles we adhere to," said Lunić, adding that Ukraine's future is uncertain in an age of Machiavellian pragmatism and international hypocrisy.
Ukraine's future, he said, depends largely on international support and the ability to maintain resistance to Russian aggression.
"Internal stability and an opportunistic approach to changing geopolitical circumstances are key factors that will determine the fate of Ukraine," said Lunić, adding that this was also recognized by the Ukrainian people, whose parliament emphasized that US support is crucial for the country's security. Lunić recalled that Ukrainian soldiers, side by side with the American ones, participated in Operation Iraqi Freedom as the third largest contingent with more than five thousand soldiers.
"After participating in both Operation Resolute Support and the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan, Ukraine faced political conditioning on military aid from a nation whose president signed the Budapest Memorandum, thus guaranteeing Ukraine's security," Lunić explained.
He added that with the 1994 Treaty, the US pledged not to use economic pressure to subordinate Ukraine to its own interests.
"But tears on the face, as a rule, dry quickly, and national interests must remain eternal. That is why Ukraine now needs help to find the optimal path to freedom and independence in the labyrinth of conflicting international interests," said Lunić.
When asked where the Western Balkans stand in the new global order, Lunić said that the region is stuck in its own unfinished history and is trying to provide a "perverse myth of national homogeneity" through a virtual arms race with countries that cannot afford it.
"Instead of welcoming a struggle for development and modernization after the horrors of the 90s, we are still searching for a visionary capable of curbing hopelessness and overcoming the urge for revenge, and creating valuable partners, perhaps even allies, from the great Balkan enemies," said Lunić.
As he stated, while politicians and the media create "age-old" enemies, in all countries of the region there is a tendency towards social fragmentation and facade egalitarianism, which represent only a cover for injustice and attempts at autocracy.
"The paradox is that despite all the conflicts and mutual hatred, the region's politicians are becoming more and more similar every day - they remain prisoners of tribal conceptions of identity, nation or religion, and continue to fuel identity riots, thus preparing their own societies for an apocalyptic future," said Lunić.
According to him, the hope is young people who have a different perception of their own future.
Lunić recalled that the basic factor that determines the geopolitical position of each country is geography, stating that the Western Balkans are definitely part of Europe and the European security architecture.
"Regardless of foreign malign influences or the phantasms of individuals about brotherly love in international relations, the region will remain European regardless of the price that some entities will have to pay," said Lunić.
As he stated, in a ruthless world, Europe is forced to build the United States in order to avoid the role of victim and hostage in the future division of geopolitical power.
"What the future union of countries will be called is less important than the fact that the Western Balkans region is the heart of such a Europe," Lunić pointed out.
He believes that Europe does not yet possess geopolitical influence of a global nature, but points to the will for reforms that has been expressed.
"Peace in Ukraine can be sustainable and long-lasting only with the active mediation of the US, China and the EU, which should provide security guarantees for the Ukrainian people, regardless of the terms of the peace agreement," said Lunić.
He said that, unless all European countries understand the importance of their contribution to collective security, the spread of the conflict to other European countries is possible.
"If the regime in Moscow receives post-war concessions that will justify aggression against Ukraine, Europe will find itself facing an escalation of tensions and possible conflict," said Lunić.
According to him, the concept of the Russian World, which was the justification for the attack on Ukraine, does not end at the Ukrainian borders.
"This does not need to be explained to the countries on NATO's eastern flank, but the question is how aware all European countries are of this," said Lunić.
As he said, alliance does not imply choosing wars, but rather complete commitment and trust between states.
"The coming period will clearly show whether Europe is capable of defending itself, and the result will directly affect anyone's imperial ambitions," Lunić assessed.
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