Although parties are trying to present the upcoming local elections in Nikšić as a crucial battle for Montenegro, a possible change of government in that city would mean additional pressure on the Government, but would not trigger early national elections.
This was assessed by the interlocutors of "Vijesti", speaking about possible scenarios in the elections in Nikšić, scheduled for Sunday, in which ten lists will compete for mandates in the local parliament.
The government in Nikšić after the 2021 elections was formed by a coalition led by the parties of the former Democratic Front (DF), the Democrats and the Civic Movement (GP) URA, when the long-standing administration of the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) was replaced.
Ahead of the elections, the DPS is saying that they are certain that they will come to power again in the town near Trebjes, while the coalition of the former DF claims that they will remain in power.
When asked whether the results of the vote in Nikšić could influence the government at the state level if the opposition wins, a methodologist and professor at the Faculty of Political Sciences in Belgrade Milos Besic He replied that the upcoming elections cannot determine that.
"If DPS wins the elections in Nikšić, it will put additional pressure on the Government, there is no doubt about it. I am not sure whether we can say that the Government is shaking. It is a Government that always has a stable majority, with unstable internal relations, especially in the relationship between minority parties - the coalition 'For the Future of Montenegro' (former DF). That is a bigger problem, but it is a problem independent of DPS," Bešić told "Vijesti".
He claims that the triumph of the strongest opposition party in Nikšić would be a kind of political message, as was the case in Podgorica (where DPS individually won the most votes, but failed to form a government), that they are "slowly and surely returning."
Bešić assesses that if DPS grows stronger from election cycle to election cycle and if they win a larger number of votes, especially at the local level, compared to previous elections, this is a signal of a "return to the old ways".
He states that the Government, as long as it resolves the problems of internal heterogeneity from within, especially between the BS-DF, will be stable.
"When that is violated, with the mediation of PES, that would be the only condition that would lead to parliamentary elections in this situation. Everything else leads to regular parliamentary elections," the interlocutor said.
Different voices drowned out in the noise of identity
Chief and responsible editor of the weekly "Monitor" Milena Perović, said that the results of the local elections so far show that two poles, or blocs, are strengthening. One is gathered around the parties of the former DF, which are in power in Nikšić, and the other around the former long-standing government in that city - the DPS and parties close to it.
"The issues are mostly identity-related, even though these are local elections." Mayor of Nikšić Municipality Marko Kovacevic ('For the Future of Nikšić') says in one of the most recent election speeches that the local elections on Sunday will show that the people of Nikšić know what language they are speaking. Milo Djukanovic (DPS), especially active in the pre-election Nikšić, on the other hand, announces that DPS will defeat 'aggressive Greater Serbian nationalism' on Sunday," Perović reminds.
According to her, other and different voices are mostly drowned out in the identity noise of the two sides, which present themselves as the only possible choice for saving not only Nikšić, but the country.
Miloš Bešić says he sees no reason why PES and the former DF should not form a government in Nikšić.
"If PES can be in power with the coalition 'For the Future of Montenegro' (ZBCG) at the state level, why couldn't it be in Nikšić? Regardless of all the specifics of Mr. Kovačević, who is the personification of that coalition in Nikšić and who, to put it mildly, has elements of controversial behavior, a kind of slightly more extreme variant," he stated.
He reminds that the Nikšić municipality and the future Nikšić government do not decide on any state, strategic issues, that they deal with local problems and that this can only be a problem from the point of view of their personal functioning.
"If there is such a composition that PES, Democrats and ZBCG form the government in Nikšić, it is not revolutionary to me and I do not see any significant impact on the state government," said Bešić.
PES is participating in the elections in Nikšić for the first time.
The coalition "For the Future of Nikšić" won 2021 seats (11 votes) in the 12.348 elections. The Democrats won ten (11.150 votes), and the GP URA won one seat (2.140 votes).
The coalition "European Team for Nikšić", led by the DPS, won 18 seats (19.294 votes). In addition to the DPS, the list also included the Social Democrats (SD), the Liberal Party (LP) and the Patriotic-Committee Alliance.
All scenarios open
Milena Perović says that it is thankless to predict the election results in an atmosphere in which voters are mobilized on emotions and identity issues, having additional experience with the Budva, Šavnik and other scenarios.
"All scenarios seem to be open," she believes.
NGOs and some of the public have previously warned that a so-called Šavnik scenario (the elections not being completed) could occur in Nikšić, due to the shortcomings of the electoral laws and the current balance of power in the Constitutional Court, which also decides on electoral disputes. The court currently has five judges out of the planned seven, so there is often no majority required to make decisions.
The president of the State Election Commission (SEC) recently warned about this. Nikola Mugoša.
"I hope that the elections in Nikšić will, nevertheless, avoid a scenario that would mean a potential delay in resolving electoral disputes, but that is certainly a possible situation considering the partial occupancy of the Constitutional Court," Mugoša said in an interview with "Vijesti" in mid-March.
If DPS, like in Podgorica, wins the most votes but fails to form a government, Bešić believes that it would be an extension of the agony for that party.
However, he reminds us that they found a solution to this in Budva, where they supported the list. Nikola Jovanović (former DF official), which formed the government, and DPS received seats "by depth".
"Budva is somewhere, it seems to me, some kind of crossroads. You have a permanent estrangement between PES and the ZBCG coalition," said Bešić, recalling the recent sharp exchange of views between their party functions regarding the agreement with the United Arab Emirates.
He believes that this is natural because the ZBCG and PES are connected by animosity towards the DPS, and everything else separates them, especially since the ZBCG, from the resolution on Jasenovac onwards, "raises the bar of the nationalist narrative, which disturbs the civic fabric of PES".
"ZBCG is creating this split in order to profit from it politically, but this split will sooner or later lead to a decrease in PES' animosity towards DPS, as PES' animosity towards ZBCG grows," said Bešić.
He expects that, perhaps not after Nikšić, but after the next election cycle in 2027, the ideological divide between PES and ZBCG will become increasingly pronounced.
"Things will happen like in Budva, for me it's a natural process...", added Bešić.
DPS submits list of "double voters" to the Ministry of Interior
Head of the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) Parliamentary Group Andrija Nikolić, yesterday, in his capacity as a citizen, gave a statement to the Regional Unit of the Ministry of Internal Affairs (MUP) in Nikšić and submitted a list of 206 citizens of Trebinje whom the party has reason to suspect are registered in the electoral rolls of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro, and that they are exercising their voting rights in two countries contrary to the law.
"When other voter lists in Republika Srpska are opened, starting with Bileća, Gacko and Foča, there will be many more double-registered voters or those phantom voters who, as a means of electoral tourism, use their voting rights in several different countries," Nikolić told reporters.
When asked how he would react if it was determined that voters from another country had already exercised their right to vote in Montenegro before 2020, Nikolić replied that it was important from the perspective of legality to determine when they were registered.
State Secretary of the Ministry of Internal Affairs (MUP) Petar Koprivica claims that the goal of the DPS is not a legal voter list, but "deception with the intention of scaring" the citizens of Nikšić, so that they will not exercise their right to vote.
He said that MUP officers will certainly conduct a detailed check as soon as possible and inform the public of the outcome.
The DPS responded that Koprivica "signed the Democrats' party statement" in an official capacity.
"The Ministry of Interior, as the body responsible for maintaining the voter register, had to ex officio verify the allegations of suspicion that 200 people were exercising their right to vote in Trebinje and Nikšić illegally, and not use politicians' statements to claim that these were speculations," the DPS announced.
The party unofficially told "Vijesti" the day before yesterday that around 700 people from Trebinje, Bileća, Foča and Gacko exercised their right to vote in the previous elections in Nikšić.
The list includes artists, entrepreneurs...
The list of alleged "double voters" from Trebinje, which Vijesti has had access to, includes mostly names unknown to the public, including artists, entrepreneurs, athletes...
The DPS submitted the list of "double voters" to the Podgorica Security Center, ahead of the elections in the capital at the end of September last year. The Basic State Prosecutor's Office (ODT) in Podgorica opened a case, and in late February it announced to "Vijesti" that it had determined that there were no grounds for criminal prosecution.
DPS claimed at the time that nearly 2.200 people had the right to vote in Podgorica and Serbia, while around 120 could vote in the RS.
"Theirs" are still succeeding
Milena Perović says that Nikšić is a city that people are continuously leaving, both during the previous and current governments. Because only “theirs” succeed.
"We will know on Sunday which 'theirs' are more numerous, and whose flags are more numerous. What is certain is that these two political poles feed each other, and that both Nikšić and Montenegro need a different voice. One that does not raise tensions and brings development. For the citizens, not for ours," she said.
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