The Europe Now Movement (PES) will likely support the candidate of the list "For the Future of Nikšić" (ZBNK). Marko Kovačević for the head of that municipality, because the party of the prime minister Milojko Spajić has neither the integrity nor the strength to oppose coalition partners from the former Democratic Front (DF) at the state level, claims an assistant professor at the University of "Donja Gorica" Nikoleta Djukanovic.
She told ''Vijesti'' that PES has lost credibility as a party that strategically leads the Government and politics in Montenegro, because, according to her, it always submits to the will of the DF, which, she says, costs them votes in the elections.
"I expect them to support Kovačević, because (Andrew) Mandic and (Milan) Knezevic "They sent a very clear message about it, in a very unpleasant way for PES, even humiliating, without negotiations, etc. They clearly said who could be the only candidate for mayor, and under that influence, Spajić probably distanced himself and said that his party colleagues made statements prematurely," Đukanović said.
According to the preliminary results of the Municipal Election Commission (MEC) of Nikšić, which were published yesterday, in Sunday's local elections in that municipality, the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) won the most votes - 14.580, (35,12 percent, 16 mandates). The ZBNK list followed with 14.381 votes (34,64 percent, 15 mandates), PES with 5.188 votes (12,5 percent, five mandates), Democrats with 3.038 votes (7,32 percent, three mandates), while the European Union received 2.103 votes, or 5,07 percent (two mandates).
The Civic Movement (GP) URA, the Party of European Progress (SEP), as well as the lists "Let's Awaken Nikšić - Dragoljub Dragan Radulović", "Work for My City - Dr. Borislav Mišo Đurišić" and the list "For a Libertarian Nikšić of Equal Opportunities - Jelena Marković" remained below the census.
The Nikšić parliament has 41 seats, so at least 21 votes are needed to form a government. If ZBNK, PES and Democrats agree, they would have a majority of 23 councilors. On the other hand, if PES were to reach an agreement with DPS, they would have 21 councilors, or 23 with the expected support of the European Union.
Mrkić: It's sad that we have "these" and "those"
PES card holder Zoran Mrkic, said on Sunday evening that it is natural for the party to form a government in Nikšić with coalition partners from the state level, but that he is not sure that they will support Kovačević remaining at the head of that municipality. He said that they need to think about it and that the party bodies will decide on it.
Yesterday, on the show "Boje jutra" on Television "Vijesti", he said that he personally has no particular affinity or animosity, but that, as he claims, he has received a bunch of messages "in which some say: 'God forbid you go with these people', and others state: 'God forbid you go with those people'".
"It's sad that we have 'this and that', and we don't have something that is decent, normal and nice," said Mrkić.
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MP of PES Darko Dragović, announced on Sunday evening on the Public Service Broadcasting Service that there is disagreement within that party regarding support for Kovačević.
"On my own behalf, I say that PES neither needs nor is allowed, as a civic movement, to support Kovačević at this moment," he said.
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President of the Parliament of Montenegro and the New Serbian Democracy (NSD) Andrija Mandic, said that the greatest credit for the result of the ZBNK coalition belongs to the leader of the list, Kovačević, and that he should remain at the head of Nikšić.
"I hear some tones, but it is at a level that is not yet worthy of observation and analysis. We have our leader in Nikšić. We have our mayor. We have a sure victory, and our coalition will not give up on that," Mandić said on Sunday evening in Nikšić.
Spajić told reporters in Herceg Novi that PES officials "maybe ran a little" and that "all the cards are on the table."
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DPS's problem is a fictitious reform
Nikoleta Đukanović told "Vijesti" that if PES truly had something against Kovačević's policies, it would not make compromise solutions with DF at the national level, because, according to her, the leader of Nikšić is not an isolated case.
On the other hand, as she added, DPS has a weak coalition capacity, but "in addition to the mortgage they carry with failed reform processes", it managed to gain a significant number of votes.
"The reason is that voters are dissatisfied with the government at both the local and state levels, so they are choosing opposition parties or returning to the DPS. On the other hand, it is not expected that they will have a significant coalition capacity when the reform is more fictitious than real for them, regardless of the large number of young people who are appearing. It is refreshing, but they carry a mortgage, and I am not sure that they are making a clear departure from the scandals and the system that is characteristic of that party," Đukanović concluded.
She said that it is clear that the DF, Democrats and PES do not want to be in a coalition with the DPS, because, she says, they came to power in 2020 on the basis of DPS's criticism and realized that it was paying off for them many times over.
She added that the "Budva scenario" (DPS became part of the government in that municipality) showed that DPS would cooperate with those parties, which means that they also criticize that "fascist narrative" only when necessary.
DPS won about five thousand fewer votes in Nikšić than it did in the previous local elections in 2021. However, at that time they were in a coalition with the Social Democrats (SD), the Liberal Party (LP) and the Patriotic-Committee Alliance (PKS). Compared to the parliamentary elections (10.855), they had about 3.700 more votes. In those elections too, they were in a coalition with the SD, the LP and the Democratic Union of Albanians. When the mandates are compared, the DPS won 2021 in 14 (four were held by their allies), and now they will have two more.
Compared to the previous Nikšić elections, held in March 2021, the ZBNK coalition won around 1.600 more votes (they had 12.348), while compared to the national elections in June 2023, they won around 7.700 more votes (6.200).
PES torn between two blocs
Professor of the Faculty of Political Sciences in Belgrade Milos Besic, assesses that a number of factors brought Kovačević a good result, above all a high turnout.
"The turnout of over 70 percent is contrary to my expectations, which suited the ZBNK. This is the result of the mobilization of voters who still have a strong anti-DPS feeling. It is obvious that this sentiment still exists among a part of the electorate, who I would not say are satisfied with the results after the removal of DPS, but this sentiment is still strong enough for someone to mobilize them," he said in "Colors of the Morning" on TV Vijesti.
He stated that another important thing is that two political blocs, DPS and pro-Serb parties, are still dominant, which is why, according to him, civic parties are losing the most.
Bešić claims that this "civic Montenegro is embodied in PES", and that they shone in the previous elections, but that it is obvious that these two blocs are "tearing PES apart".
"PES, as an authentic representative of civic Montenegro, must see what to do with this, because it is obvious that in this bloc division they have a process of casting their votes, a little towards some, a little towards others," said Bešić.
According to him, Nikšić shows that civic Montenegro must wake up and do something, primarily PES, or, he claims, the outflow will continue and there will once again be the "traditional bloc division" that Montenegro has had for decades.
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Commenting on the fact that DPS is still the strongest individually, but that it does not have coalition capacity, he recalled that the party has maintained power for decades thanks to the loyalty of civic parties (SDP, LP, and even Positive Montenegro at one point), and on fear and animosity towards the pro-Serbian corps.
"Now DPS is in a different situation, where civic Montenegro is on the other side... Looking back, all civic parties, whenever they approached one or the other bloc, were 'fried'," said Bešić.
DF electorate inclined to support radical views
Nikoleta Đukanović says that a good result for ZBNK could have been expected, because, she says, that coalition has a traditional electorate that is very inclined to support radical extreme positions, especially when it comes to the Greater Serbia ideology, "although this is not as pronounced in Nikšić as in other parts of the country."
In addition, she added, they took advantage of their power and "abused state resources, employed people, etc."
On the other hand, as she said, PES cannot retain voters, even though as a new party it managed to gather a large number, first in the 2021 elections in Podgorica, then in the 2023 parliamentary elections.
"This means that it has won over voters from both the largest blocs, the DF and the DPS. But PES does not have a synergistic effect to retain voters, because PES does not have its own policy, but, in order to maintain its position in the government, is exclusively guided by the interests of the DF," said Đukanović.
Their results, he reminds us, are getting weaker, as shown by Nikšić and Budva... and the Democrats and GP URA are also showing a downward trend.
"All three parties have obviously disappointed citizens with promises that were based on criticism of the previous system, and in fact, when they came to power, they continued with identical practices," said Đukanović.
Silence over Cetinje brought down the Democrats
The Democrats recorded a particularly poor result in Nikšić, losing eight thousand votes compared to the previous local elections.
Đukanović assesses that this is the result of events this year, namely the consequence of their management of the security sector, silence when it comes to questioning responsibility for the January massacre in Cetinje, labeling and "everything they did to suppress any student protest, even in situations where their demands were completely justified".
"They have shown that they are the 'dirtiest' party in Montenegro, ready to do literally anything just to stay in positions of power," she concluded.
Citizens love to vote, but there are those who have lost trust
Commenting on the high turnout at Nikšić polling stations on Sunday, Đukanović said that elections are traditionally interesting for citizens, although, she said, there has been a downward trend in recent times, "which can only be linked to the decline in citizens' trust in the electoral process due to failed reforms, unfulfilled promises..."
According to preliminary data from the Democrats, turnout in yesterday's elections was 71,04 percent. In the previous elections it was 81,8 percent, and in the parliamentary elections it was 56,4 percent.
According to Đukanović, the turnout on Sunday was not higher (compared to previous local elections) “because there are many abstainers who have lost trust in the electoral process and political parties in general, while the parties are still trying to control their electorate”. This, she added, could be seen during election day, through the oscillations in turnout, “so in the second half of the day the turnout was higher than the trend in the morning”.
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