Identity issues contributed to the good results of the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) and the former Democratic Front (DF) in the elections in Nikšić, but not at the polling stations in Herceg Novi, where the focus was not on the team, but on local issues of interest to the citizens there.
This was assessed by the interlocutors of "Vijesti", answering the questions - why did support for DPS and the former DF increase in the Nikšić elections held three days ago, and fall in the Herceg Novi elections organized on the same day, and whether these two political actors grow where they push nationalist narratives, and fall in those environments where these topics are less or barely mentioned.
According to preliminary results from the Nikšić election commission, DPS won 14.580 votes (35,12 percent, 16 mandates) in that municipality, and the coalition For the Future of Nikšić (ZBNK), led by the DF, won 14.381 votes (34,64 percent, 15 mandates).
DPS itself "earned" about 4.700 fewer votes than it had in the previous local elections (it had 19.294). However, at that time they were in a coalition with the Social Democrats (SD), the Liberal Party (LP) and the Patriotic-Committee Alliance (PKS). Compared to the parliamentary elections (10.855), on Sunday they had about 3.700 more votes. In those elections too, they were in a coalition - with the SD, the LP and the Democratic Union of Albanians.
When comparing mandates, DPS won 2021 in 14 (their allies had four), and now they will have two more.
When analyzing their results, it should be borne in mind that in these elections, part of their votes "went" to the Party of European Progress, led by their former second-in-command and former Prime Minister Duško Marković.
On the other hand, the ZBNK coalition will have four more councilors in the new convocation of the Nikšić Municipal Assembly (MA) - so far they had 11. Compared to the last Nikšić elections, held in March 2021, they won about two thousand more votes (they had 12.348), while, compared to the national elections in June 2023, they are about 8.100 votes "plus" in the town under Trebjes (6.200).
In both the last and these local elections, the ZBNK coalition included, in addition to the DF, eight more constituents, while the For the Future of Montenegro alliance in the parliamentary elections included the DF and the Workers' Party.
When it comes to Herceg Novi, preliminary results from the local election commission show that DPS received 1.972 votes (15,24 percent, five mandates), and the Alliance for the Future of Herceg Novi and Boka, whose backbone is the DF, received 1.661 votes (12,84 percent, also five mandates).
The Coalition for the Future of Herceg Novi and Boka won two fewer votes than in the previous local elections. Compared to the previous local elections, also held in 2021, they received about a thousand and a half fewer votes, and compared to the national elections, about 500 fewer.
DPS, which ran independently in Novi, also won two fewer seats than four years ago (they had seven, and their then coalition partner SD one). On Sunday, they received about 1.700 fewer votes than in 2021, i.e. about 200 fewer than in the parliamentary elections.
Two poles "ate" small actors
Nikola Mirković, a program associate at the Center for Civic Education (CCE), assessed that the elections in Nikšić were of far greater significance, because, he said, it was the largest municipality after Podgorica, but also one in which the campaign featured many more topics that went beyond local boundaries.
"Therefore, they resulted in a strengthening of polarization into two national and ideological poles, which was also shown by the result, namely the fact that the DPS and the coalitions of the parties of the former DF almost equally divided the votes, significantly absorbing the votes of smaller parties of similar or identical political orientations," he told "Vijesti".
Mirković said that this is especially evident in the case of the ZBNK coalition, which, according to him, "took" a certain portion of the Democrats' voters.
"On the other hand, some smaller lists that are close to the DPS ideology did not even have a chance to pass the threshold," he noted.
The director of the Center for Democracy and Human Rights, Nevenka Vuksanović, said that the Nikšić elections showed the prevalence of identity issues and voting patterns, meaning that the electorate there does not really deal with local issues. Citizens, she added, understood the elections as “a reflection of the state level and the struggle for national values.”
"In Herceg Novi, there is an increase in civic, local parties, and there is less burden of identity, which is very obvious in the election results," Vuksanović assessed for "Vijesti".
Responding to the question of whether DPS and DF grow where there is nationalist talk, and fall where there is none, Vuksanović replied that this is so and that it is evident in the fact that civic, local parties in the town near Trebjes have not achieved "any results".
Milačić: Politicians are not elected by European officials
Neither the DPS, nor the key constituents of the former DF, the New Serbian Democracy (NSD) and the Democratic People's Party (DNP), answered "Vijesti's" questions about why their parties (coalitions) were growing in Nikšić and declining in Herceg Novi.
The president of Prava Crne Gore, which is part of the DF alliance in Nikšić and Herceg Novi, Marko Milačić, told the newspaper that the nationalist narrative associated with their coalition is "a well-worn thesis devised by the DPS and similar ideological points, as a cheap way to stigmatize a large part of Montenegro."
"Citizens clearly recognize this manipulation, as these elections have shown," he claims.
Milačić said that, as far as the coalition he is part of is concerned, he thinks that his other colleagues from the ruling majority have underestimated the importance of the topic of "inherited discrimination against the Serbian people, which is not being effectively addressed even under the new government."
"And here I am thinking of the issue of the majority Serbian language and citizenship for Serbs whose center of life activities is tied to Montenegro and who, as an essentially constituent people, do not exercise the basic human rights and freedoms contained in domestic and European documents," he said.
The interlocutor said that his colleagues, despite the investment euphoria and respect for the views of European officials "who have perhaps been regulating internal political relations too much in recent months," still forgot that they are voted for in the elections primarily by the citizens of Montenegro, and not by any European official.
"And that we need to separate the regulation of internal politics and the needs of citizens from foreign policy and occasional initiatives that come from outside, which spill over into the lives of citizens without any national filter or adjustment," he stated.
Milačić said that it was precisely from the ranks of those accusing them of nationalism that name-calling and nationalist messages "interwoven with hatred towards the Serbian electorate, which is large in the Nikšić municipality," could be heard.
"So they went so far as to call all the people from this bloc 'Chetnik scum', which clearly shows how deep they have stepped into the political mud," he said.
In addition to the DPS and DF, eight other political entities participated in the elections in Nikšić. The Europe Now Movement (PES) received 5.188 votes (12,5 percent, five mandates), the Democrats 3.038 votes (7,32 percent, three mandates), while the European Union received 2.103 votes (5,07 percent, two mandates. Five actors did not achieve parliamentary status - the Civic Movement (GP) URA, SEP, as well as the lists "Awaken Nikšić - Dragoljub Dragan Radulović", "Work for my city - dr Borislav Mišo Đurišić" and "For a libertarian Nikšić with equal opportunities - Jelena Marković".
As for Novi, in addition to DPS and DF, there were seven other lists in the election race in that city. The Democrats received 4.067 votes (31,43 percent, 12 seats), the Novi List (supported by PES) 3.320 (25,66 percent, 10 seats), the European Union 438 votes (3,39 percent, one seat), the GP URA 464 votes (3,59 percent, one seat), and the Civic Movement for Herceg Novi "Idemooo" 595 votes (4,60 percent, one seat). The Socialist People's Party (SNP), which received 267 votes (2,07 percent), and the Bokeški Forum, which won 154 votes (1,19 percent), did not pass the threshold.
On the coast, local issues above identity issues
Nikola Mirković assessed that the elections in Herceg Novi were based more on a “local story”, that they did not generate much interest, and that this was evident from the “very low turnout.” Turnout in that municipality on Sunday was just over 51 percent.
"Also, it seems that the citizens there had a more positive attitude towards local actors without regard to the national one, i.e. the Democrats' result in that city is essentially the merit of the current and obviously future mayor Stevan Katić, and not the Democrats' headquarters, and the very good result of the Nova List can be attributed to these people, and not to the PES headquarters that stood behind that list," the interviewee explains.
Political scientist Miloš Perović assessed for "Vijesti" that the trend in all coastal municipalities is that civic lists are gaining increasing support.
"One of the key factors I see is the better socio-economic position of citizens in those municipalities, so the campaign itself is being communicated in a different way," he said.
He stated that local issues in those municipalities, which are the focus of civic lists, are obviously above issues such as identity issues and other topics that are "of a national character."
Marko Milačić said that in Herceg Novi, the coalition he was part of, appeared in a different composition this time, because the SNP ran independently in the elections.
"In Nikšić, unlike Herceg Novi, in the person of Marko Kovačević (ZBNK) for the past four years we have had the first man in the city government, so the citizens judged by the results, which are much easier to deliver from the position of mayor," he said.
He stated that "it also appears that the local committees of other elements of the parliamentary majority in Herceg Novi obviously have an incomparably greater sensitivity towards Serbs than the committees of those parties in other cities," and that this is also directly reflected in the election result.
"So, Herceg Novi is specific," he concluded.
Perović: Small lists had no business being in the bloc division
Analyzing the growth of DPS and DF in Nikšić, political scientist Perović said that the elections in that municipality showed that identity issues are still an important factor in winning support.
"The uncertainty, the importance, the unexpectedly high turnout in the elections and, ultimately, the campaign that was conducted in Nikšić, created a practically referendum-like bloc division between the two strongest lists, and the small civic lists simply suffered in this polarization," he said.
Perović stated that the results also showed "that all six percent of the scattered votes in Nikšić were citizen votes."
"One of the key factors that contributed to this is that the ZBNK coalition managed to mobilize voters who are dissatisfied with the current government on anti-DPS sentiment, which is obviously still strong among voters who could potentially vote for a civic option," he explained.
The interlocutor said that DPS also took advantage of the creation of a bloc division and the importance of identity issues in Nikšić, achieving good results.
"However, what DPS previously had a 'safe' coalition partner with whom to form a government, they do not have now and are in trouble. This could create problems on the overall political scene in the future, so that a party with significant support cannot realize its coalition potential. Certainly, I see the inclusion of (honorary DPS president Milo) Đukanović in the campaign as one of the factors in the loss of coalition potential," Perović concluded.
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