Last week's elections in Nikšić and Herceg Novi exposed the weaknesses of the Civic Movement (GP) URA and the Socialist People's Party (SNP), weakening their stake in future coalition negotiations.
This was told to "Vijesti" by a program associate at the Center for Civic Education (CCE). Nikola Mirkovic, commenting on the poor electoral results of these two parties, which until recently played a significant role in the Montenegrin political scene. The SNP was the strongest opposition party at the state level for more than a decade, governing several municipalities, while the GP URA until recently had a prime minister, the second man of Podgorica and the first man of Ulcinj.
Mirković assesses that, as things stand now, the prospects for these parties are poor, and that an independent appearance at the national level could be their path to "political retirement."
In the Nikšić elections, GP URA lost its parliamentary status in that municipality, winning, according to the preliminary results of the local election commission, 783 votes (1,89 percent) - over 1.300 fewer than they received four years ago in the town near Trebjes. At that time, they earned a mandate and became part of the Nikšić government, but this summer they stopped supporting the first man of Nikšić, Marko Kovačević.
On the other hand, the SNP is almost invisible in that municipality, as it has "drowned" in the coalition For the Future of Nikšić (ZBNK), led by the former Democratic Front (DF). It won 13 votes (14.381 percent, 34,64 seats) on April 15, and there is a good chance that it will form a government with partners from the state government - the Europe Now Movement (PES) and the Democrats.
In Herceg Novi, GP URA won one seat at the local polls, one less than in the previous elections in that municipality. On Sunday, they received 464 votes (3,59 percent) - over 800 votes less than four years ago (they had 1.281 votes). They ran in those elections in alliance with the Bokek Forum, the Bokobran Initiative, CIVIS and non-partisan individuals.
The SNP did not pass the threshold in Herceg Novi, even though it was the strongest (ruling) party in that municipality for years. The SNP's Dejan Mandic He was the head of Herceg Novi for several terms, from 2004 to 2014. In 2014, the DPS and the ''Izbor'' coalition took power, but they did not serve a full four-year term. In 2017, the previous opposition came to power, and he was elected mayor. Stevan Katic (Democrats), who will likely continue to hold that position, given that the list he led in Sunday's elections won the most votes.
Both confuse voters
Nikola Mirković assessed that the development paths of GP URA and SNP and the reasons for their weakening are different, but that they have in common the loss of some key characteristics, which, he says, had a confusing effect on their voters, and thus drove some towards other parties, but also into abstention.
"GP URA has not proven to be a reliable partner to anyone, and its civic framework has been permanently destroyed by supporting and forcing the signing of the controversial Fundamental Agreement with the Serbian Orthodox Church (SPC). Additionally, the way in which the leader of this party Dritan Abazovic", as prime minister, treated the non-governmental sector, labeling anyone who criticized him in a mundane, often dangerous way, and distanced that party from civil society, where it started and had its greatest foothold. Abazović himself is the most recognizable, but also the most problematic, face of that party, which limits the entire party," claims Mirković.
S other country, SNP Vladimir Joković "In his words, the party that once insisted on anti-fascist values is now more on the line of clericalism, and the former criticism of party employment has been replaced, he claims, with the practice of everything they criticized, and, he adds, the economic populism that some of their officials affirm - it cannot cover that."
"Although the SNP has often publicly insisted on procedures, the upcoming congress at which they are to elect the party leadership will, it seems, further divide them from procedures to some other elections," Mirković assessed.
He notes that the fact that GP URA did not pass the threshold in Nikšić, but halved the result in Herceg Novi, indicates "the departure of a significant number of voters from that party in an election cycle, which was marked by many events in which GP URA deviated from many of its principles."
"Nikšić is a solid benchmark for the national level, as the second largest electoral unit, and it is evident that in the event of an independent appearance, GP URA is at risk of political disappearance. In the local elections in Podgorica, GP URA covered up its decline in voters with a pre-election coalition, as the SNP has been doing for some time as part of the coalition For the Future of Montenegro (ZBCG), which was also the case in Nikšić," Mirković reminds.
GP URA ran in the elections in the capital in the fall in coalition with the Movement for Podgorica (PzPG), a party close to the head of state. Jakov Milatović, and the Movement for Changes. PzPG formed a post-election coalition with PES, Democrats and the Alliance for the Future of Podgorica, so GP URA “fell out” of power in the capital.
URA: Civic Montenegro defeated in Nikšić
Commenting on their results in Nikšić, GP URA told "Vijesti" that, taking into account the environment in which the elections took place, the division between blocs, the national rhetoric, and the pressure to which voters were exposed, a clear conclusion can be drawn: that "civic Montenegro was defeated" in that municipality.
"And when support for civic Montenegro declines, then support for GP URA also declines," they stated.
They said that GP URA does not shirk responsibility and that it fully understood the message of the voters in Nikšić.
"We take that message seriously - through a detailed analysis, we will identify shortcomings in order to more clearly define the program and goals of work in the coming period," they said.
GP URA was founded in 2015, after the reformist wing of Positive Montenegro split off. The founders were mostly young politicians and activists, who advocated for civic, green and pro-European values. GP URA positioned itself as a centrist, civic and ecological party.
The party gained wider support after Dritan Abazovic took over its leadership. It achieved its greatest success in the 2020 elections, when, despite having only four MPs, it played a key role in overthrowing the three-decade rule of the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) and forming a new government with two stronger, ideologically different coalitions.
After the fall of that government, Abazović became prime minister in a minority government, supported by the DPS. The SNP was also part of that government. During that period, the GP URA presented itself as a fighter against crime and corruption, but it was often the target of criticism from both political parties. The SNP was also the target of criticism, but it justified its participation in that executive branch by saying that the Fundamental Agreement with the SPC was signed because of them.
"SNP's piece of the pie in the government is overrated"
When it comes to the SNP, Nikola Mirković said that the party did not pass the threshold in Herceg Novi because their electorate switched to both the Democrats and other related parties.
"Regardless of the positions in the government they currently hold, in relation to the current party rating, it seems that their piece of the pie in power is overestimated. It seems that at the national level, the ZBCG coalition would not significantly feel the absence of the SNP, especially considering this wave of polarization that we saw in Nikšić, but also the fact that the SNP has lost quite a bit of its individuality," he said.
The SNP was long the second strongest party at the state level, after the ruling DPS. The SNP was founded in 1998, after a split in the then DPS, caused by a conflict between a faction loyal to Momir Bulatović and the one he led Milo Djukanovic.
The party initially inherited socialist, pro-Serbian, and unionist values, advocating for the preservation of the state union of Serbia and Montenegro. It was a staunch opponent of Montenegrin independence until the 2006 referendum.
After Montenegro gained independence, the SNP attempted to redefine politics, abandoning its hardline pro-Serbian course and moving towards the civic center, but lost some of its support. Numerous splits followed, including the establishment of new parties, such as the Democratic People's Party Milan Knežević and a Democrat Alekse Bečić.
The SNP did not respond to "Vijesti"'s questions about how they explain why they are losing voters and what they will do to win them back.
URA announces congress and new staff
The GP URA reminds that by the end of 2023, "thanks to resistance to national and retrograde policies," support for civic parties was growing.
"Today, due to the bad, clumsy and unclear policy of key government figures towards these same retrograde policies, we are witnessing a growth in support for parties like DPS and the coalition For the Future of Montenegro, which feed off each other - all to the detriment of civic parties. However, this will not sway us. We will remain consistent with the policy of reconciliation and building a multinational society, based on the rule of law and respect for the Constitution of Montenegro," they said.
They announced that they will have a regular congress in mid-June, which will "represent an opportunity to refresh the party with new personnel, accomplished people within the organization, proven in their professions, as well as to further emphasize program goals for the future development of Montenegro."
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