The elections in Nikšić and what will happen next in that city will not have much of an impact on the stability of the Montenegrin Government or the further functioning of the Europe Now Movement (PES), but they will dictate the further decline of that party, said Nikoleta Đukanović, assistant professor at the University of Donja Gorica.
She said that the formation of a government in Nikšić with Marko Kovačević at the head of the city administration is a "done deal", but also that PES is paying for its non-transparent leadership of the executive branch, failure to fulfill promises made to citizens, and making concessions to parties of the former Democratic Front (DF) with a constant decline in citizen support.
Đukanović pointed out that the elections in Nikšić showed the strengthening of two extreme poles - the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) on the one hand and the bloc consisting of the parties of the former DF on the other, while the civic lists do not have much support from citizens.
According to her, the biggest losers in the Nikšić elections are PES, Democrats and the Civic Movement (GP) URA.
"If we look at the elections in Podgorica, Budva and other municipalities in the previous period, we see a constant decline in PES, even though they are a key part of the government at the national level, even though they have great promises for citizens and populist policies," said Đukanović.
As she stated, it is obvious that voters punish failure to fulfill these promises, especially in relation to economic parameters, with the constant decline of that party.
Đukanović said that the Democrats, who are in power and have significant levers of power that they continuously abuse in the electoral process, showed an unsatisfactory result, but also that the loss of support from the GP URA is the result of their actions when they were in charge of the government.
When it comes to forming a government in Nikšić, Đukanović believes that the election of Kovačević as mayor is a done deal.
"I think that the Nikšić elections and what will happen next in that city in the context of the formation of the government and everything we will see and hear from that government will not have too much of an impact on the stability of the government or the further functioning of PES, but it will, including other municipalities and developments at the national level, dictate the further decline of PES," Đukanović assessed.
Đukanović said that PES "costs the most" by allowing the parties of the former DF to be the dominant force in the government, even though they are the backbone of the government, and for the parliamentary majority to be led by the president of New Serbian Democracy, Andrija Mandić.
Asked whether the poor result of PES in Nikšić was expected, Đukanović said that it is increasingly common in Montenegro for voters to punish political parties that do not fulfill their promises and that the decline was expected due to events in the previous period.
"It is a party that promised a lot and failed to fulfill a lot," said Đukanović, stating that PES governs in an extremely non-transparent manner, marginalizing and excluding critics and the civil sector. On the other hand, as she stated, PES constantly makes compromises with the DF and does not have a crystallised policy in the domain where it does not conflict with the interests of their coalition partners from the DF.
"I think it's costing PES a lot and I think they are also very panicked within their ranks about how to retain and animate new voters," said Đukanović.
As she added, it is obvious that the trend of massive employment, which could be seen in the example of Nikšić, is not yielding results either.
"I believe that in the future parliamentary elections, this party will become almost marginal compared to its initial level and the number of departments it currently manages," said Đukanović.
When asked whether there was a possibility that PES would not support Kovačević for mayor, Đukanović said that, considering PES's steps so far, she thought they would agree to all ultimatums just to stay in power.
"This is most often done by a party that is in a great panic, in the sense that they have power now and who knows when again, so this opportunity should be used to extract maximum profit for the party or individuals who govern that government," Đukanović stated.
When asked whether it was a realistic option for PES to give minority support to the For the Future of Montenegro (ZBCG) coalition in Nikšić, Đukanović said that this was one of the options that PES would agree to only if it retained power at the national level.
"I don't know how much good it would do them, considering that they wouldn't be able to participate directly in government," said Đukanović.
She recalled that one of the primary promises of the PES was meritocracy, that is, that it would stop partitocracy, party employment, nepotism, and that it would prevent appointments, except for ministers, along party lines.
"And we have a situation where the Prime Minister (Milojko Spajić) talked about the percentage that a party should receive in terms of depth," Đukanović stated, noting that even minority support would mean harmonizing with Kovačević's policies.
Commenting on the role of President Jakov Milatović on the political scene, Đukanović said that she believes that Milatović, after the events of recent months, has lost a dose of credibility and integrity to criticize the work of the Government from the position of President of the State.
"I think his act of critically observing the work of the Government does not have the weight it might have had before the elections in the Capital," said Đukanović, adding that Milatović lost some of his credibility during the student protests.
"Because it is the President of Montenegro who, at that moment, was commenting on the natural disasters in the United States, while at the same time remaining silent on the events in Cetinje," said Đukanović.
She said she believes that if presidential elections were organized now, Milatović would receive very little support.
"And, unfortunately, if he had the same opponent (Milo Đukanović) as he had in the second round, the question would be who would win, although the vast majority in this country would certainly not want the former president of the country to return to power," Đukanović stated.
She believes that Milatović will seek coalition capacity in the future, if he decides to remain politically active after his presidential mandate and to lead or participate in the functioning of a political party in the future.
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