The adoption of the law on agreements with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will not sway the government of Milojko Spajić (Europe Now Movement), because there is no political force for it, but it is not ruled out that its support will be eroded.
This was assessed by civic activist Stefan Đukić for "Vijesti", answering questions about the possible political repercussions of voting on the agreement with the UAE in the Parliament and whether we should expect Albanian parties, some of which oppose the agreements, to leave the executive branch if these documents are adopted.
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"I think such assessments are exaggerated. As much as we like analogies and repetitions, in order to talk about the fall of the government, the circumstances need to be much different. At this moment, there is no other set of circumstances that would dictate, let alone the swinging of Spajić's position, let alone the fall," claims Đukić.
He stated that there is a sufficient majority for the agreements to be confirmed in parliament, and that the strongest opposition party, the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), is apparently not "strongly against" it.
"Therefore, there is no political force to shake this government. On the other hand, it is not impossible that support (for the government) will wane and that this will be the moment when things will go 'downhill'. But we have to see how things will develop further and what moves they will make," said Đukić.
Yesterday, MPs debated two draft laws - on the ratification of the Agreement between the governments of Montenegro and the UAE on economic cooperation, and the Agreement on cooperation in the field of tourism and real estate development with the UAE. By the time this issue of "Vijesti" was written, the first agreement had been adopted, which was supported by 50 MPs, while 10 were against.
These documents were signed by Prime Minister Spajić on March 28 in Dubai, after which he sent them to the parliamentary procedure in the form of a bill.
Previously, he presented to the leaders of Ulcinj and local parties the intention of Arab billionaire Mohamed Alabar to allegedly invest 35 billion euros in the construction of a tourist complex in that municipality and to lease the entire Ulcinj Velika Plaža for 99 years. Some in the public and the non-governmental sector claim that the agreements are contrary to state interests in several areas and that they jeopardize Montenegro's path towards the European Union (EU).
After the agreement was signed, the Ulcinj authorities, part of the civil sector, as well as some Albanian parties from the state government protested.
One of these parties unofficially told "Vijesti" that, for now, they will wait with moves that would lead to a possible exit from the Government, to see how the situation will develop if the Parliament confirms the agreements. The same source said that they expect that the head of state, Jakov Milatović, will refuse to sign them (the laws on the ratification of the agreements) and return them to the Parliament for a new decision.
The source explained that any contract the government initials with an investor from the UAE, which relates to the disposal of state property, must be ratified by the Parliament, and that “it will not pass just like that”. He claims that Prime Minister Spajić “has weakened his position by doing this”, and that “if the worst comes to the worst”, without specifying what that is, he expects that others “will not have the courage to remain in such a government”.
Another source from Albanian parties said that they currently have a "broader and bigger mission - to send Spajić into political retirement."
The Albanian Forum (AF) and Albanian Alliance (AA) coalitions are part of the government, and are represented in parliament by three members of parliament. The exit of these coalitions from the government would not jeopardize its survival.
Stefan Đukić assessed that Albanian parties have repeatedly released "test balloons" about leaving the government and giving "some ultimatums".
"Since none of this has materialized so far, it is difficult to expect it to be different, even though this topic is 'bigger'. They are aware that they will not change the outcome of the vote and they need to think about what is most politically profitable for them next. I do not expect to leave the government," the source said.
The leader of the ruling Force and the President of the Municipality of Ulcinj, Genci Nimanbegu, indicated last night that they do not intend to leave the executive branch for now.
"Our membership in the Government is no longer in question, I think Spajić is sending a message that he will throw out everything and everyone - just let him try. The other Albanian parties are not in coalition with us, but they have given a clear signal that they do not accept this. The parties have become prisoners of whether they are in power or not. Maybe the BS (Bosniak Party) does not understand the seriousness of this problem, but I explained it very clearly. Just as I tried to explain it to the Democrats. Because this is no longer a question of participation in the Government, but of our European path...", he stated in the show "Reflektor" on Television "Vijesti".
Perović: Public is wary of possible scenarios
The editor-in-chief of the weekly "Monitor", Milena Perović, said that it is worrying that there is no reasoned discussion in Montenegro about its future, including when it comes to possible investments that could result from the agreement with the UAE.
"Unfortunately, it is being spoken from narrow trenches, narrow political or economic interests. Without realistic considerations of where we are, what we have done so far when it comes to our resources and space, and what our capabilities are, what our strategic direction is. Unfortunately, this has been the case since the beginning of this story," she told "Vijesti".
Perović said that she is particularly concerned that the government insists on hastily signing agreements that have been labeled controversial by the public.
"I see no reason to rush to adopt documents on which no relevant institution has given its opinion. Are they unconstitutional? Has Montenegro protected its interest, or rather the public interest, in these documents? Do they open up space for abuse? Is it possible that the Agency for the Prevention of Corruption (APC) is the only institution in this country that has anything to say about them?" Perović asks.
Perović stated that, instead of these answers "which are the basis for any further conversation", there is talk of imagined projects, non-existent resources, figures for which it is not known where they were derived from, and that the public is speculating about possible scenarios...
"This story, unfortunately, perhaps most of all exposes the problem of our institutions, without which we will tell all stories in the same way, between political and economic interests, from the trenches," the interviewee concluded.
The agreement between the governments of Montenegro and the UAE on cooperation in the field of tourism and real estate development does not contain information on whether the executive branch has committed to providing land for long-term lease or for sale to the entities. This is stated in the opinion of the ASK published last week on the Draft Law on Ratification of the Agreement between the governments of Montenegro and the UAE.
During the investigation, the Agency also noted that the particularly contentious point of the Agreement is the obligation of the Government to provide the land necessary for the implementation of the project, excluding the application of public procurement, tenders or procedures prescribed by national legislation regulating the area of state property.
Đukić: Protest broadens the front of the struggle, but...
During yesterday's debate on ratification of the agreement, a group of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) organized a performance in front of the parliament building in Podgorica. They said that the agreements pose a risk to the public interest, the constitutional order and Montenegro's European path.
Responding to the question of whether NGO-led protests can have any influence on the government when there are no opposition parties behind them, Đukić answered in the negative.
"Non-governmental organizations are not able to generate a large critical mass that would influence the government. On the other hand, every protest, especially when it is backed by different organizers and when different people come to it, expands the 'front of struggle' against the government, and that is not good at all. Perhaps this situation will not shake the government, but it will erode support ahead of the next elections," he said.
Asked whether the government could turn against itself and its supporters because of the agreement, Đukić said that he thought that was not realistic at this point and that this story was still largely "abstract" for the majority of citizens.
Turmoil both in and outside the Parliament: Who is selling the state, and who is strengthening the economy
Citizens, NGO activists and representatives of some parties protested yesterday in front of the parliament building in Podgorica, ahead of a session at which MPs discussed draft laws ratifying two agreements with the UAE, and heated discussions on these documents took place in the plenary and in parliamentary committees.
Executive Director of the Network for the Affirmation of the Non-Governmental Sector (MANS), Vanja Ćalović Marković, told the ruling majority MPs that they would not "give them Buljarica, Jaz".
"Today they don't even let us stand in front of our Parliament, where the previous regime let us stand. Today we are again thinking 'will the police arrest us', because we dare to raise our voices, because our MPs have become spineless and faceless...", she said from a performance in front of the Parliament, organized by a group of NGOs.
The first man of Ulcinj, Nimanbegu, said that yesterday was an important day for Montenegro, because the ruling majority wanted to "trample on the Constitution".
"They are doing this consciously, and we as a community have warned them. NGOs, professionals, intellectuals have warned them. They only see profit," he assessed.
In the plenary session and committees, the ruling majority MPs argued that ratifying the agreements was a good thing for the state, that by adopting them they were fulfilling election promises, investing in the economy, and attracting investors.
Ilir Čapuni, a member of parliament from the ruling Forsa party, and the opposition assessed that the Agreement on Cooperation in the Field of Tourism and Real Estate Development is “selling Montenegro to foreigners.” Čapuni added that the vote is against the interests of citizens and that trust in the Government is also being eroded, stating that “there will be embarrassment if it goes all the way.”
Minister of Public Works Majda Adžović said that if the Municipality of Ulcinj does not want an investment in Velika Plaza or some other location, there will be no such investment.
Mehmed Zenka, a member of parliament from the opposition Democratic Union of Albanians, said that this was a “scam” and that they did not know how they would defend the municipality “in case the government decides otherwise tomorrow”. He said that one of the agreements (on tourism and real estate development) was problematic. He claims that it devalues the Constitution, that the government is given “imperial powers”, and that citizens are left without the possibility of appeal.
Milan Knežević, a member of parliament from the ruling Democratic People's Party, said that he would like Adžović to convince him of the agreement and projects, as well as to explain why there was no public debate, whether the agreement on tourism and real estate development is in accordance with the Constitution, what is public interest, whether public competition, procurement and tenders are being completely bypassed...
He claimed that few EU countries have such an agreement, and that it is also problematic how control and arbitration will be implemented, given that this is not included in the document.
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