The European Commission (EC) stands ready to support Montenegro in its ambition to move forward rapidly, and concrete decisions on the next steps in the enlargement process will be made by the Member States.
This was told to "Vijesti" by the EC, answering the question of whether the presence of Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić at the parade in Moscow will negatively affect Montenegro's chances of closing new chapters in the EU accession negotiations.
"Vijesti" interlocutors believe that Vučić's visit to Moscow will not have a negative impact on the region when it comes to the EU accession process, and that the Serbian president has even "inadvertently" done Montenegro a favor, because gestures like his convince even skeptical Europeans that the process needs to be accelerated in order to prevent the further spread of Russian influence in the Western Balkans.
The Serbian president, along with about two dozen other world leaders, attended a military parade in Moscow on May 9th to mark the 80th anniversary of the surrender of Nazi Germany. The parade was condemned by Western countries, calling it “Putin’s propaganda” to justify his aggression against Ukraine. Serbia, as a candidate for membership in the European Union, refuses to comply with sanctions against Russia, despite warnings from Brussels.
The EC reiterates that enlargement has been and will remain a strategic priority, as emphasized by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in her political guidelines for the next term of the Commission.
"The EC welcomes the ambitious timeframe set by Montenegro for progress on the path to EU membership and the closure of the remaining negotiation chapters," the EC said.
After years of stagnation, Montenegro closed three negotiation chapters at the end of last year, and several more are expected to be closed in June. The government plans to close all negotiation chapters by the end of 2026, so that Montenegro can become an EU member by 2028.
When it comes to Serbia, the EC recalls that the European Union has been completely clear with partners, including candidate countries such as Serbia:
"Relations with Russia cannot be business as usual while Vladimir Putin's rule continues and in the shadow of Russia's unprovoked and unjustified war of aggression against Ukraine."
"We should refrain from giving any legitimacy to Putin's war of aggression. If one wants to show support for peace, the right place to do so on May 9th was Kiev, not Moscow. Therefore, we strongly regret the trip of the Serbian leadership to Moscow and their presence at the celebration of Victory Day in World War II, which Russia is using for propaganda purposes," the EC told "Vijesti".
They say that Serbia needs to convince them of its strategic orientation towards the European Union and to demonstrate a credible commitment to European values.
“What would the leader of a candidate country for EU membership do in the company of an aggressor?”
Foreign policy commentator Boško Jakšić told "Vijesti" that Vučić's trip to Moscow is undoubtedly causing negative effects.
"How much? That remains to be seen, but it cannot slow down the European path of other Western Balkan countries," he assessed.
According to him, the Serbian president inadvertently did Montenegro a favor, because support for enlargement is slowly growing in Brussels, and gestures like Vučić's convince even skeptical Europeans that the process needs to be accelerated in order to prevent the further spread of Russian influence in the Western Balkans.
"Tirana and Podgorica have already been identified as favorites on that path. Vučić and his lackeys in Podgorica cannot slow down that process and have condemned themselves to one day watching with envy the ceremony of Albania and Montenegro's accession to the EU," said Jakšić.
Political analyst and journalist Aleksandar Srbinovski reminds that Montenegro is still at the forefront of the region when it comes to harmonization with EU standards and, although part of the government is made up of pro-Serbian parties, Podgorica's political course remains consistently pro-European, and this should not be questioned.
"Political decisions and positioning of Belgrade, Banja Luka or Skopje do not have to (nor should they) automatically be transferred to the dynamics within Montenegro. As someone from North Macedonia, a country that shares historical, political and social parallels with Montenegro, I can say that we look at its progress with sympathy. Macedonia supports Montenegro as the first EU member state, and this is the consensual position of both the government and society. At the same time, it should be borne in mind that the EU has never punished candidate countries for the actions of political leaders from other countries, even when these leaders come from the same ethnic communities," he said.
He cites the example of North Macedonia, where numerous Serbs, Albanians, and Turks live, which has never been punished for the statements, positions, or actions of Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, or Aleksandar Vučić.
"The European Commission and key EU members understand the internal specificities of the region very well and do not confuse identity with responsibility. That is why I believe that Montenegro should not be afraid of Vučić's foreign policy orientation, its European path depends solely on internal reforms and the political will to stay on that path. And, by all accounts, it still exists," says Srbinovski.
Boško Jakšić believes that the decision of the Serbian President to attend the parade on Red Square, despite strong warnings from the West, was undoubtedly more than provocative.
"What is the leader of a country that is a candidate for EU membership doing in the company of the aggressors of Ukraine and the autocratic elite of the world?" he asks.
It recalls very clear criticism from the ranks of liberals, social democrats and Greens in the European Parliament, which is less favorable to Vučić than the previous convocation.
"This bloc insists on reforms, democracy, freedoms and the rule of law. The Serbian leader, like Milorad Dodik, obviously enjoys praise from the East for his 'heroic act', but Vučić is certainly annoyed by messages from the West that the demands of the rebellious students and citizens in Serbia are identical to the demands of the EU," Jakšić says.
The Socialists and Democrats Group in the European Parliament called this week on the European Commission and High Representative Kaja Kalas to react immediately regarding the presence of the Serbian President at the “Vladimir Putin parade” in Moscow.
"The red line has been crossed and there can no longer be business as usual," the Group warned on the sidelines of a seminar on EU enlargement held in Ljubljana.
Serbia, as Jakšić says, has been stagnant on its European path in recent years and, among other things, is increasingly moving away from harmonizing its foreign and security policy with that of the EU.
"Vučić continues to rhetorically speak of Serbia's 'full commitment' to European integration, but during 11 years of membership negotiations, it has opened 35 out of 22 negotiation chapters and temporarily closed only two. The time is running out when the Union, fascinated by the concept of stabilocracy of (former German Chancellor) Angela Merkel, tolerated the authoritarian tendencies of the Serbian government for years," Jakšić said.
Even within the EU, there is no complete agreement on relations with Russia.
Srbinovski reminds that, in addition to Vučić, the parade in Moscow was attended by the Prime Minister of Slovakia, Robert Fico, which "indicates the fact that even within the EU there is no complete agreement on the relationship towards Russia and the military symbolism used by Moscow."
He believes that Vučić's arrival in Moscow, on the one hand, reflects Serbia's strategic partnership with Russia, primarily in the energy field, but also its growing ties with China, which was a central partner at the parade itself.
"Chinese President Xi Jinping was among the most prominent guests, and the fact that Russia also dedicated a large symbolic space to this cooperation shows that Serbia is balancing between multiple geopolitical blocs. Serbia is pursuing a multi-layered foreign policy: while one part of the state leadership is participating in the parade in Moscow, another (albeit of a lower rank) is simultaneously attending a meeting of the European Political Community in Tirana. This sends contradictory, but consciously shaped, messages that Serbia, although maintaining strong ties with Russia and China, does not want to completely cut off communication with the EU," says Srbinovski.
He points out that EU membership is a political decision by Brussels and that the experience of past enlargements of the Union shows that at key moments geopolitical interests prevail over bureaucratic criteria.
"Bulgaria, for example, became an EU member four years before Croatia, despite many conditions, precisely because of its strategic position and the Union's need to round off its territory. That is why I do not believe that Vučić's presence at the parade in Moscow significantly changes Serbia's position in European integration, nor will it affect the region as a whole," said Srbinovski.
The enlargement process, he added, is already effectively frozen, and the key factor for its continuation remains the outcome of the war in Ukraine and the redefinition of the EU's relations with the US, especially in the context of a possible new administration of Donald Trump.
"However, the countries of the Western Balkans have no alternative, because strategically, historically and economically they belong to the European space. That is why it is crucial that they continue to build their European path, despite the slowdowns," Srbinovski assessed.
Jakšić: There were demands to completely stop negotiations with Serbia
When asked whether penalties for Serbia can be expected from the EC, Boško Jakšić replied that Europeans are not united in their stance.
"Some member states, such as the Netherlands, Scandinavian and Baltic countries, are more inclined towards tough measures, so there have been demands to completely stop the negotiations. The President of the European Commission, the German Chancellor (Friedrich Merz) or the President of France (Emmanuel Macron) are not in favor of sanctions. In principle, there is one agreement: if sanctions are accepted, they should not punish Serbia, but Vučić personally," said Jakšić.
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