NATO membership has protected Montenegro from stronger and more negative influences on its domestic politics, while, on the other hand, promises about economic development and raising the standards of Montenegrin citizens have not been fulfilled.
This was assessed by the interlocutors of "Vijesti" on the occasion of the eighth anniversary of Montenegro's accession to the North Atlantic Alliance.
NATO says that Montenegro is a valued ally.
"Montenegro contributes to our common security, including by sending members of its forces to our missions in Kosovo and Iraq, as well as to our multinational forces in Latvia and Bulgaria. We welcome Montenegro's commitment to further investment in defense, which is a priority for all NATO members," the Alliance told Vijesti.
Professor of International Relations at Boston University and former National Coordinator for NATO Vesko Garcevic He said that the decision to set NATO and EU membership as the country's foreign policy priorities was the right decision with a far-reaching positive impact on Montenegrin society.
"These two goals were supposed to generate much-needed democratic changes and integrate Montenegro into Western structures, where it belongs," Garčević told "Vijesti".
Analyst Stefan Djukic believes that on the one hand it cannot be said that entry has brought any negative consequences, while on the other hand, not a single positive development can be seen.
"If the Alliance flags were not flying and membership was not occasionally mentioned, I think most of us would not even be aware that we are part of that alliance. It is good that certain fears, such as the destruction of nature for the sake of military training grounds, have not come true, while on the other hand we have seen almost none of the promised benefits," said Đukić.
On June 5, 2017, Montenegro became a full, 29th member of NATO, at a ceremony at the US State Department.
The then head of Montenegrin diplomacy Srdjan Darmanovic presented the ratification instruments to the US Undersecretary for Political Affairs Thomas ShannonThe ceremony was also attended by the then Montenegrin Prime Minister. Dusko Markovic and former Secretary General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg.
Two days later, on June 7, the Montenegrin flag was raised in front of NATO headquarters in Brussels.
During the multi-year campaign for NATO membership, Montenegrin state officials sent clear messages to citizens and the international community: membership in the Alliance brings security, stability, and economic progress, and will not threaten the sovereignty of the state.
The key political message was that NATO membership would guarantee long-term security and strengthen Montenegro's international position, while on the economic front, promises were made of greater inflow of foreign investment, strengthening of the country's tourist image, and modernization of the armed forces without a large financial burden on citizens.
They particularly emphasized that there would be no foreign military bases on the territory of Montenegro and that Montenegro would not pursue a hostile policy towards any country, including Russia.
The opposition demanded a referendum, but the government insisted that there was democratic legitimacy through elected institutions.
“ALLIED FORCES CONTRIBUTE TO THE SECURITY OF MONTENEGRIN SKIES”
Speaking about the benefits of membership in the Alliance, NATO stated that foreign investments from allied countries in Montenegro have increased since Montenegro joined NATO, and thanks to the efforts of Italy and Greece, allied airspace surveillance forces contribute to the security of Montenegrin skies.
"We are also grateful for the support Montenegro has provided to Ukraine so far, including the delivery of military equipment and assistance through NATO's comprehensive support package. Our continued support for Ukraine is crucial to ensuring that Ukraine can defend itself and ultimately secure a just and lasting peace," NATO said.
The alliance praises Montenegro's commitment to reforms and its path towards membership in the The European Union.
This commitment, they say, is essential for the security of the European continent and for the stability of the Western Balkans.
They remind that Montenegro already allocates more than 20 percent of its total defense budget to the procurement of major military equipment, which is above NATO guidelines.
THE CONCEPT OF NEUTRALITY IN EUROPE DIED WITH THE WAR IN UKRAINE
Vesko Garčević believes that if the validity of NATO membership is challenged, the question must be asked what the alternative would be.
"What kind of neutrality would be good for Montenegro? We never got a real answer to that question," he said.
According to him, the war in Ukraine forced Sweden and Finland, two neutral states, to turn to the Alliance.
He believes that the concept of neutrality in Europe died with the war in Ukraine.
"Neutral Switzerland has also taken a firm stance towards Russia and introduced identical sanctions to the EU. In the current circumstances, both in Europe and globally, Montenegro would be even more vulnerable. If Russia is at stake, we would certainly have to follow the EU policy towards Moscow, but we would be without the advantages of NATO membership," said Garčević.
He points out that NATO membership has protected Montenegro from much stronger and negative influences on Montenegrin domestic politics, both from the region, i.e. Serbia, and from outside the region, i.e. Russia.
"Membership served as the last line of defense against these malignant interferences with the aim of Montenegro abandoning its pro-EU and pro-NATO orientation," Garčević said.
BAD THAT MORE IS SPENDED ON DEFENSE, LESS ON HEALTH AND EDUCATION
Đukić says that what is bad is increased military spending, which for the Montenegrin, already poor, budget means a larger deficit and less money for education, healthcare, and the like.
"The benefit should be that our borders are secured, that we don't have to worry about security, but those who said that joining NATO would bring that security are still talking about the existence of the same problems and dangers today," he said, adding that he does not know if any promises made during the campaign for NATO membership were fulfilled.
He believes that the campaign at that time was not conducted for the purpose of informing citizens about their future obligations and restrictions, but was political propaganda.
"Promises about economic development, raising standards and other things that supposedly go with NATO membership have not been fulfilled. On the other hand, warnings about increased spending on military obligations have largely proven to be true," said Djukic.
According to information from "Vijesti", the government plans to increase defense spending to three percent of gross domestic product (GDP) next year, from the current two percent.
This could amount to at least 200 million euros, given that the country's GDP, according to the latest Monstat data for 2023, was slightly less than seven billion euros (6,96 billion). In the Government's Macroeconomic and Fiscal Policy Guidelines for the period 2024-2027, GDP for 2026 is estimated at around 8,2 billion euros, which means that defense spending will be around 246 million euros.
Last year, with around 150 million euros in total allocations for the defense system, Montenegro symbolically crossed the threshold of a minimum of two percent of GDP for spending on that sector, which is what NATO has so far defined for its members.
President of the USA Donald tramp At the beginning of the year, immediately after he was elected, he said that NATO member states should allocate five percent of GDP to defense, which is much more than the current target of two percent and an amount that no member allocates.
As reported by the media at the time, officials from NATO countries said they agreed that defense spending should continue to grow, but did not support the five percent figure, which analysts say is politically and economically impossible for almost all members.
Officials say the new target is likely to be agreed at the NATO summit in June in The Hague, amid concerns that Russia could attack a NATO country following its aggression in Ukraine.
SOME IN THE GOVERNMENT WANT US TO STAY IN NATO, "BUT OUT OF VIEW"
Vesko Garčević believes that, when it comes to the opportunities that opened up with Montenegro's accession to the Alliance, the country could have better integrated into Euro-Atlantic structures and used its position as a NATO member to strengthen its chances for EU membership.
"NATO membership was supposed to accelerate reforms. It was supposed to be an important phase of our path towards the EU, not the end of transition. This wandering continues today. For many constituents in the current government, it would be best if we remained a member of NATO, but in a way that is not visible and not talked about much," said Garčević.
The decision to ratify the Protocol on Montenegro's Accession to NATO was made on 28 April 2017 at a session of the Parliament held in Cetinje. 46 MPs were present, all of whom voted "in favour".
Parliamentarians from the then ruling majority - the Democratic Party of Socialists, the Bosniak Party, the Social Democrats, the Croatian Civic Initiative, the "Albanians Decisively" coalition and the Liberal Party, as well as the then opposition Social Democratic Party, raised their hands in support of membership.
Other opposition parties boycotted the Assembly sessions due to the “coup d’état” scandal, when a group of people allegedly wanted a coup on election day in 2016 to influence their results. The composition of the Assembly that voted on NATO was elected in the October 2016 elections.
Several US officials, including the then Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matthew Palmer, for years after the event, they accused Russia of being behind the attempted coup because of its opposition to Montenegro's accession to NATO. Moscow publicly warned that Montenegro's membership in NATO would damage relations with Russia.
And high-ranking officials of the then Montenegrin government, including the former president of the state Milo Djukanovic, they said that the goal of the alleged coup was to prevent the ratification of Montenegro's NATO membership by changing the government.
Maybe it's time to talk more seriously about a "European NATO"
When asked whether NATO is a guarantee of security at a time when some believe that Trump is threatening the alliance's survival and there is talk of forming a European army, Garčević replied that the Alliance is going through a period of major changes. He says that one possible response to the change in the US's stance towards its European allies could be the formation of a "European NATO", a strong European defense component within the Alliance.
He reminds us that this is not a new idea, as France has been advocating a similar concept for decades.
"Perhaps now is the time to discuss this more seriously. If the EU moves towards building up its defense capacities, by creating an integrated, strengthened military structure, can Montenegro, as a future EU member and a European member of NATO, remain out of it? What would be the price of such a senseless decision not to be included in this process? Once again, what is the alternative?" Garčević asked.
He believes that no decision is ideal, but the value of a decision is measured in comparison to alternative solutions.
"I don't see a better solution for us than to continue with integration," he said.
Djukic states that no one can predict what Trump will do next.
"I think it is more realistic to impose on us an obligation to spend military resources at the level of 3% of GDP, which means importing military equipment for which it is a big question whether we need it. I believe that Trump is only publicly saying what other leaders of the alliance have always thought - this is a military cartel through which weapons are sold to third countries, and we are also a cog in that large machinery called the military-industrial complex," he assessed.
First to receive support from NATO's team for countering hybrid threats
NATO says that the Alliance remains steadfast in its support for Montenegro on its European path.
"Montenegro's membership in NATO brings benefits to the citizens of Montenegro, the region and the entire Alliance. Let us add that Montenegro faces continued hybrid threats from Russian and other foreign actors. Montenegro has taken strong measures to counter these threats and was the first NATO member to receive support from the NATO Hybrid Threat Countermeasures Team," they stated.
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