Knežević's "noise" is not followed by action, nor is Mandić: Would the NSD follow the DNP if it were expelled or left power?

Head of the Assembly and the New Serbian Democracy (NSD) Andrija Mandic "plays" more pragmatically than the leaders of the Democratic People's Party (DNP) Milan Knežević, so it will depend on Mandić's assessment whether DNP will be sacrificed for the sake of stability and preserving NSD's positions.

So, a program associate at the Center for Civic Education (CCE) Nikola Mirkovic answers the question of where their long-time coalition partner - NSD - stands in the story of the possible exit or expulsion of the DNP from the state and Podgorica government.

Mayor of Podgorica Saša Mujović (Europe Now Movement - PES) requested, as confirmed by "Vijesti" from PES, from the Prime Minister and the first man of that party Milojko Spajić to exclude Knežević's party from power in the capital and at the state level.

According to the "Vijesti" television, Mujović recently demanded at a meeting with representatives of the ruling parties in Podgorica that due to the threats made by the DNP leader regarding the planned construction of a wastewater treatment plant (collector) in the Zeta settlement of Botun and, as he claimed, the "permanent untruths" he is telling about him (Mujović), he should break with the DNP locally, "although he has nothing against their councilors", but also at the state level.

The Podgorica PES board unanimously supported Mujović's demands, saying that those who are not in favor of a "responsible relationship" can try to constitute a new majority.

"The outcome will largely depend on the NSD and Mandić's decision whether to let his smaller but vocal partner 'go down the drain'. So far, the NSD has wisely kept quiet, guarding its positions and building influence within the parliamentary majority and the executive branch. Mandić is 'playing' more pragmatically than Knežević, so it will depend on his assessment whether the DNP will be sacrificed for the sake of stability and preserving its own positions," Mirković assessed.

Asked what the consequences would be if the DNP were not in power and the NSD remained, Mirković replied that, if that were to happen, he believed it would only remain at the local government level, because, according to him, the coalition "For the Future of Montenegro" (of which the NSD and DNP are a part) is hardly ready to lose its "armchairs" and influence at the state level.

The breakup of the alliance with the DNP at the state level would not, if it were to happen, unlike the Podgorica case, endanger the government, unless Mandić were to join Knežević. However, the question is how realistic this is, given that Mandić's party did not oppose the construction of the collector in Botun, against which Knežević is strongly protesting, threatening to leave power in the capital.

"Vijesti" was unofficially told by Mandić's party the day before yesterday that they see no reason for anyone to leave power. They added that the NSD party bodies will decide whether they will remain part of the ruling coalition in Podgorica if the DNP is no longer there.

"For now, we don't see any reason for anyone to come out...", said the interviewee, stating that no one had discussed this as an option with them.

"In the event that the DNP leaves the government in Podgorica, the question is whether their mandates could be replaced. According to the opposition's initial reactions, they do not seem interested in serving as a 'doping injection' for this government. By that logic, we would have another coup in the government and early local elections," said Mirković.

Although information about Mujović's request was published on Tuesday evening, neither DNP nor Knežević have yet commented on it.

If the DNP is expelled from the Podgorica government or leaves it, the majority in the capital's parliament could be maintained by joining at least two opposition parties, not counting the strongest - the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), which can hardly be part of such an arrangement.

Given that the Capital City Assembly has 59 councilors, the support of at least 30 of them is required to constitute the city government. The ruling majority in Podgorica consists of 31 councilors. It includes the PES - Democrats alliance (14 councilors), NSD and DNP with minor partners (13 councilors), and the Movement for Podgorica, which is close to the head of state. Jakov Milatović (four councilors). If the DNP, which has four representatives (by agreement with Prava Crne Gora, they have since gained a fourth), is expelled from power, the ruling coalition would be “reduced” to 27 councilors and would have to seek the support of at least three opposition representatives to survive.

In that case, they would need the support of two opposition parties (not counting DPS) - the Civic Movement URA Dritan Abazović, European Progress Party Duško Marković or Movement Reversal Srdjan PerićThey all have two councilors on the benches of the Podgorica Assembly.

There are also three European Union councilors in the parliament.

Although there is speculation in political circles that these political actors could be invited to replace the DNP in the Podgorica government, those parties told "Vijesti" two days ago that no one had contacted them about this.

"Looking at the possible consequences within the 'For the Future of Montenegro' coalition, although Mandić and Knežević have different tactics in conducting politics, it seems to me that their mission remains the same, and without mutual symbiosis, their strength weakens," Mirković pointed out.

He said that it is therefore almost certain that the two of them will run together again in the next national elections, because, he claims, they have neither the courage nor real strength to run independently.

"I will remind you that since its founding, the DNP has never run independently in elections, and without the support of the NSD, their survival would be seriously questionable," Mirković notes.

Responding to the question of whether it is realistic for the DNP to leave the Podgorica government, Mirković assessed that the public is already used to the DNP and Knežević often being loud, but that "the noise is not followed by action, especially not one that means sacrificing privileges."

"However, this situation surrounding the Botun case has been going on for months and is increasingly tense. The threats to Mayor Mujović, which were publicly incited by Knežević, have further strained relations," the source said, adding that Mujović's reaction, with the support, as reported in the media, of the entire Podgorica PES board, could be a signal of a more serious government crisis.

However, he notes that the big question is whether this can really result in its reconstruction, "because PES is not strong in action either."

"Perhaps this time Knežević played it safe, counting on the weak backbone of PES. However, if PES, which together with the Democrats has the largest number of councilors in the Capital among the local government constituents and independently the largest number of deputies in the Parliament of Montenegro, were to show more determination and strength, Knežević's bluff could come back to haunt him, at least through the loss of power in Podgorica," Mirković concluded.

"Vijesti" announced yesterday that the exclusion of the DNP from the government would not shake Spajić's government, but that it would not survive if, in the event that this happens, Mandić's NSD follows Knežević.

The ruling majority has 52 representatives in the 81-seat state parliament. If Knežević were to be expelled, the majority would have 48 MPs (since the DNP has four), but if the NSD exits (with its nine representatives), it would drop to 39 - two short of the minimum needed to form a government.

DNP has two members in the Government - Vice President for Infrastructure and Regional Development Milun Zogović and the Minister of Transport Maja Vukicevic.