It is good that the European Union (EU) is giving Montenegro, and perhaps Albania, a chance to become members of that community, possibly in 2028, but due to the geopolitical situation, all Western Balkan countries should become part of that bloc as soon as possible, regardless of whether they have met all the conditions, believes the former president of Slovenia. Borut Pahor.
In an interview with "Vijesti" he said that he has long argued that countries need to meet certain conditions to join the EU.
"Now I am more or less ready to make a very bold claim - that it is important, but not the most important thing. The most important thing is the decision of the EU and the country, that now is the time to join the EU," said Pahor.
He claims that the official EU policy, which implies accession based on merit, is not the happiest and that it may be good for Montenegro and Albania, but not for the entire region.
Pahor warned that the more time passes without the EU coming to the region, the greater the chances that "something will happen."
Speaking about Croatia's blockade of Montenegro's accession to the EU due to bilateral disputes (compensation for detainees in the "Morinj" camp, ownership of the ship "Jadran", the border at Prevlaka, changing the name of the Kotor basin), he said that there had been such cases before.
"If possible, such a policy should be avoided. If there is no other way, then we should immediately approach an agreement, dialogue and resolve such a matter as soon as possible with some compromise that is beneficial to both sides. The sooner, the better. Because in the end, this is not only a problem for Montenegro, but also for Croatia. It was also a problem for Slovenia when we blocked Croatia," Pahor said.
A year and a half ago, at the “Friends of the Western Balkans” conference held in Ljubljana, you said that you did not think that the EU and the Western Balkan countries would be ready for membership by 2030, or even later. Do you still hold that view? If so, why?
I am not sure if you understood me correctly. I am convinced that now is the time for the EU to give a chance to all the countries in the region, to decide in referendums on joining the EU and for all the countries of the Western Balkans to join that community as soon as possible within a reasonable period of time. Is the EU now ready for that? I don't think so, but it should be. In that sense, the enlargement policy, which is now the official policy of the EU, is in my opinion wrong. It is good that it gives a chance to Montenegro, maybe Albania, to join maybe in 2028. For those two countries, that is great and I support that. But I am not sure that it solves the problems of the Western Balkans as a geopolitical entity. That could perhaps only be solved by a decision by Brussels and all the countries of the Western Balkans that in a relatively short period of time, for geopolitical reasons, the entire Western Balkans should join the EU, with the will of the people in referendums in the countries of the region. That is my policy.
I am critical of both the EU and the Western Balkan countries because the process is moving so slowly. Mind you, the last country to join the EU was Croatia in 2013, and now we are in 2025. So for 12 years nothing significant has happened in the Western Balkans, and the geopolitical circumstances have changed significantly...
I have long argued that, to some extent, countries need to meet certain conditions for joining the EU. Now I am more or less ready to make a very bold claim - that it is important, but not the most important. The most important thing is the decision of the EU and the countries, that now is the time to join the EU. Are they all ready, in all respects? merit based approach-a (merits-based approach), maybe not, but it is time for the Western Balkans to join the EU. This is, after the war in Ukraine, the most important geopolitical issue for the EU at the moment.
When do you think the countries of the region could join the EU?
This is now the official EU policy (based on merit), which is not the happiest. I think it is good for Montenegro and, perhaps, for Albania, but it is not good for the region as a whole because they are leaving behind North Macedonia, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo. The entry of all the countries, let's say in one package, would solve many more problems than it would create. But such a decision requires courage both in Brussels and in the countries of the Western Balkans.
How dangerous is it for this region if it does not become part of the EU in the foreseeable future, for example in the next few years? What, specifically, could happen in that case, what could the consequences be?
It is dangerous. I think that, in essence, it is a bad prospect for the region. I am not sure and I will not speculate now how far these tensions could go. Let's hope that they will not go all the way to the end, to some new conflicts, but that possibility could be more dangerous in a few years if nothing happens. But, first of all, if the EU will not be in the region - there will be a third party. Either directly or indirectly. Either geopolitically through proxies, or capitally through investments, etc. I think that is one thing that I do not understand well - why Europe is wasting so much time with the decision to accept the entire region into the EU.
In terms of the EU's absorption capacity, the region is not that big. Today we are talking about Ukraine's entry into the EU. In this respect, Ukraine is a much more difficult factor than the entire Western Balkans. I think that the Union is missing a strategic compass, which is currently unable to see the capacity of a peaceful, secure and European Western Balkans as a benefit, but sees it as a political cost. That new decision has not yet been made. But I hope that perhaps in a year or two it will be clear that the new geopolitical circumstances will force the EU to do something more decisive than the current official enlargement policy, which is more or less merit based approach. So, as much as you are capable of making some reforms, we are capable of opening doors. That is an understandable strategy to some extent, but it is not sufficient for these new geopolitical circumstances.
Where would Montenegro go if it does not join the EU in the next few years?
I said at the beginning - in my opinion, this EU strategy is not perfect now. But I want at least Montenegro and Albania to join the EU. That is great for Montenegro, great for Albania. It is not bad for everyone else, but it is not enough for the region as a whole. If we want peace and prosperity here, if we want some prosperity and we want this to be part of the EU territory - now is the time for the EU to come here. It may be too late. We do not know what the consequences could be if nothing happens with the other countries in a few years.
How do you view Croatia's use of unresolved bilateral issues to slow down Montenegro's path to the EU? Slovenia did the same to Croatia... Is it fair to use bilateral disputes, especially at such a geopolitical moment, to obstruct Montenegro's entry into the EU?
It's not fair, but it happened before the Slovenian-Croatian dispute, and it will probably continue to happen as long as the enlargement process lasts. So, it's not some new moment that applies only to enlargement in the Western Balkans, but a moment that has always been there and that threatens to stop the enlargement process.
I will tell you my personal experience with setting conditions of bilateral importance for a neighboring country's entry into the EU. In the end, it is a problem for you too. So, if possible, such a policy should be avoided. If there is no other way, then we should immediately approach an agreement, a dialogue and resolve such a matter as soon as possible with some compromise that is beneficial to both parties. The sooner, the better. Because in the end, it is not only a problem for Montenegro, but also for Croatia.
That was a problem for Slovenia too when we blocked Croatia. But Slovenia and Croatia solved that problem.
Ultimately, the problem here will be solved by Croatia and Montenegro. So, I think Croatia should also be very careful when making such decisions.
How do you assess the overall situation in the Balkans today? How do you view the assessments of some political commentators that the situation is unstable, and the warnings that the 1990s are being repeated?
I don't want to speculate whether it is possible that, under some specific circumstances, a new conflict could arise in that territory. But be careful, the more time passes without the EU coming to this area, the greater the chances that something will happen...
How much of a threat to peace in the Balkans are Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and the former President of Republika Srpska Milorad Dodik, or rather the moves they are making? The arming of Serbia, the concept of the "Serbian world", Dodik's secessionist moves...
I am known for wanting Serbia to join, just like all other countries. But I have always said, both when I was the President of Slovenia and when I was not, that in my opinion there are three political conditions for that. One is that there is no more discussion about the “Serbian world”. That is not a legitimate discussion. That there is no more discussion about the separation, the separatism of Republika Srpska in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). Those two conditions are, in a geopolitical sense, of essential importance for maintaining peace. The third is, however, some kind of agreement with Kosovo on a relationship between the two states that would be sustainable for both Kosovo and Serbia, and of course for the entire region and Europe.
Are Dodik's promises that Republika Srpska will become independent achievable?
I think there is a small chance of that happening. I hope there will never be a moment when that possibility exists, because nationalist tensions would rise to such a level that the integrity and sovereignty of all of BiH would be called into question.
I am concerned about some of the statements and decisions of former President Dodik. That is why I have decided to call Tuesday Mladen Ivanić, a former member of the BiH presidency, to come to Ljubljana so that we can talk a little in the presence of the public about the prospects of BiH at this moment. There is no European perspective for the region if there is a new nationalism and separatism. The integrity and integrity of BiH must not be questioned. I expect Vučić and Serbia not to support such separatism. This is of great importance.
What would Vučić's fall from power mean for Serbia and its neighborhood?
It is not for me to speculate about that. I want that in all countries - in mine, in all other countries in the region, in Europe, that democratic process is active, alive, serious. I hope that Serbia will solve the problems in some democratic process, so that there will not be any situations that would mean an additional moment of instability in both the country and the region.
Is it realistic to expect that Belgrade and Pristina can agree on the status of Kosovo?
Is there any alternative to that? I don't think so. No matter how much people think that there is no possibility of reaching an agreement, that agreement should be reached. I think that it would be easier to reach that agreement if the two countries, Serbia and Kosovo, entered the EU at the same time, when the people of Kosovo and Serbia decide so in a referendum. I will put forward a slightly more radical thesis here - I think that the only significant improvement in relations between Belgrade and Pristina is possible only with the entry of the two countries into the EU.
Stories about leaving NATO and the EU - playing with Slovenia's fate
Recently, there has been talk in Slovenia about organizing a referendum on leaving the EU and NATO. What is your opinion on these initiatives, do you think they could be made official in Slovenia and in some other countries?
I can understand the motive of Prime Minister (of Slovenia, Robert) Golob if he said that at the time, but I cannot understand, I cannot agree with if such a decision were to actually come to pass. That would be playing with the fate of Slovenia. Slovenia is a Western country, it is in the European Union, it is in NATO. These are two sides of the same geopolitical situation.
We are a country that can achieve its security more easily and cheaply if it is in NATO. Anything else would be an adventure that Slovenia, in my opinion, cannot afford.
We have seen in the example of Brexit (the withdrawal of Great Britain from the EU) what leads to a situation where a country leaves the EU. I think that there is less possibility of that happening with NATO, because, after all, it is a matter of collective security. I don't know which country would think that it is safer outside NATO than inside NATO. I am not sure that such an initiative with any serious qualification could even happen.
Both the EU and NATO are in a transformation that the whole world is in. I hope that at the end of this transformation, the European Union will actually be an alliance of the united states of Europe. A strong confederation sui generis that will be effective in the global economy and global politics. And that it will be ready to defend itself, with the help of NATO, but also on its own, from the dangers that may threaten it in the future.
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