The DPS and DF tango is back: What did the CEDEM research show?

The decline in satisfaction with the Government and support for the Europe Now movement (PES), along with the growth of the For the Future of Montenegro (ZBCG) coalition and the stability of the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), indicate a weakening of the effects of the initial populism of the PES and a re-strengthening of the traditional political polarization between ideological and identity blocs in Montenegro.

This is what a political scientist assessed for "Vijesti". Milos Perovic, commenting on the results of a survey by the Center for Democracy and Human Rights (CEDEM) on the ratings of parties and politicians.

The survey, conducted by CEDEM in late September and early October on a sample of 1.006 respondents, shows that if parliamentary elections were held next week, 25,8 percent of voters would vote for the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS). The party remains the strongest political entity, although it has recorded a slight decline from last year's 26 percent support.

For the Future of Montenegro (ZBCG) has 23,5 percent support, according to the latest survey, while last year they were not evaluated as a coalition, but separately as the parties that make up it, New Serbian Democracy (NSD) Andrije Mandić had 11.3 percent, and the Democratic People's Party (DNP) Milan Knežević 4,2 percent.

Europe Now Movement (PES) Milojko Spajić has the support of 20,3 percent of respondents, and in March last year it recorded 26,3 percent support.

Yesterday, the party did not respond to "Vijesti"'s questions about how they would comment on the latest research results.

Democrats Alekse Bečić In a survey published yesterday, they have 8,2 percent support, which is a slight drop compared to last year when they had 10 percent.

Bosniak Party Ervin Ibrahimović and the European Alliance, which consists of the Social Democrats (SD), the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the Liberal Party (LP), each have five percent. BS had 5,3 percent last year, while the ES parties were assessed separately (SDP- 2,3, SDCG -2,2).

Perović assessed that the results signal a continuation of the trend of fairly high political fragmentation and dynamic changes in support for ruling structures, which is characteristic of Montenegro after 2020.

"The slight decline in satisfaction with the Government and the significant drop in support for the ruling Europe Now (PES) movement indicate that the initial populism of the PES is less effective. It seems that citizens, although they appreciate economic reforms, are facing the challenges of some unfulfilled expectations, especially in the context of resolving key political issues," Perović assessed.

The survey showed that 9,2 percent of respondents are very satisfied with the performance of Spajić's government, 29,7 percent are mostly satisfied, 23,1 percent are mostly dissatisfied, 21,3 percent are very dissatisfied, and 16,7 percent have no opinion.

Last year, 31,5 percent of respondents responded that they were mostly satisfied with the work of Spajić's government, 9,5 percent said they were very satisfied, 22,9 percent said they were very dissatisfied, and the same percentage of those who had no opinion on the matter.

Perović pointed out that the growth of the coalition For the Future of Montenegro and the stability of the Democratic Party of Socialists show that the political scene is once again polarizing around traditional ideological and identity blocs.

"DPS continues to retain its base by using its strong party infrastructure and also by exploiting the mistakes of all governments after 2020, while ZBCG strengthens its position as the main opposition bloc...", assessed Perović.

Responding to the question of "Vijesti" why ZBCG is growing, while DPS is stable, the director of CEDEM Nevenka Vuksanović She said that "national divisions are the dominant determinant on the basis of which citizens choose parties."

"We have had several examples of local elections. In particular, the elections in Nikšić. So, national issues are something that determine voters. But, we have seen in other aspects that these are not aspects that concern the public and that determining the national issue is not their top priority. On the other hand, when it comes to voting, this is something that these voters will most often come out to vote for," she explained.

DPS claims to be indestructible

The DPS announced yesterday that a public opinion survey, the results of which show that the DPS enjoys the support of 25,8 percent of Montenegrin citizens, indicates that the action of the Special State Prosecutor's Office (SDT), which, as they said, is being carried out in the name and on behalf of the current government, is a "sky prosecutor". Vladimir Novović with the clear goal of bringing down DPS's rating", failed.

"After publishing data that clearly shows that DPS is the political party that citizens trust the most in Montenegro, it is evident that all attempts by SDT to destroy what is the foundation of our politics - and that is the trust of citizens - have been shattered to pieces. This is proof that the indictment, written by the head of the OKG, which consists of the government and the prosecution, Vladimir Novović, fell apart even before it was created, and that DPS, whatever labels Novović shamelessly tried to stick on it in order to cause it damage, is indestructible," the statement states.

Businessman and accused cigarette smuggler Aleksandar Mijajlovic and several police and prosecutors were arrested on October 3 on suspicion of creating a criminal group to influence the executive branch, part of the media, and the security sector. Former minister and DPS official Predrag Boskovic was arrested on suspicion of being a member of the same criminal organization on October 6, the same day that details of the Special State Prosecutor's Office (SDT) investigation order that led to their arrests were published. The same day that the CEDEM investigation, which began on September 25, ended.

According to the order to conduct the investigation, the group operated between 2018 and 2024, on behalf of the DPS, using a "wide network of influence" within state institutions, the media and security structures, including influencing voters to vote for that party or not to vote.

Nevenka Vuksanović assessed that there is a noticeable decline in political parties and their ratings, as well as in almost all politicians, as well as a decline in trust in institutions, European institutions, and the EU itself.

"Citizens have probably not yet felt the full benefits of the pre-accession period. They have not felt that institutions and political entities are coming to an agreement, that their standard of living is increasing. We have seen that, in fact, the most important thing for citizens is the standard of living that they can provide with their income. Any kind of decline in trust is directly related to the standard of living that citizens have," she said.

She believes that the decline in trust experienced by the PES can be linked to “the perspective that citizens have on whether certain promises have been fulfilled.”

"We saw that this is closely related to how citizens perceive party recruitment, which is currently one of the biggest problems happening. Citizens have the feeling that the system has not changed after the change of government, which has been five years," Vuksanović pointed out.

According to CEDEM research, the Civic Movement URA Dritan Abazović supported by 3,6 percent of voters, the People's Trust Movement Dragoslav Šćekić 2,1 percent, Albanian Forum Nika Đeljošaj 1,8 percent, Socialist People's Party Vladimir Joković 1,4 percent, Turnaround Srdjan Perić 0,9 percent, DUA 0,8 percent, while FORCA and the Croatian Civic Initiative each have 0,7 percent support.

The People's Trust Movement announced yesterday that this result confirms that citizens increasingly recognize their work, sincere intentions, and policies based on an honest, transparent, and responsible fight for a better Montenegro:

"Although we are a nascent movement, without a formally established headquarters and municipal committees, this support shows that the ideas of popular trust, solidarity, and justice find a strong resonance among citizens."

The SNP announced yesterday that the results of the latest CEDEM survey "do not reflect the real situation on the ground or the true mood of citizens when it comes to political parties and their ratings."

"Our daily contacts with members, supporters and citizens across Montenegro clearly show that the SNP enjoys much greater support than that shown in this survey."

Decline in popularity of politicians

A comparison of this year's and last year's research shows a decline in the popularity of all leading politicians in Montenegro, especially Milojko Spajić and Jakov Milatović.

Spajić dropped from 2,77 to 2,56 (a drop of 0,21), Milatović dropped from 2,93 to 2,49 (a drop of 0,44), losing first place and now behind Spajić.

Honorary President of DPS Milo Djukanovic fell slightly from 2,45 to 2,37, and Milan Knežević almost maintained the same level.

The leader of the Democrats, Aleksa Bečić, who was among the top five last year (2,47), is not at the top of this year's list at all, while they have now broken into it. Danijel Zivkovic (2,26) and Andrija Mandić (2,18). Bečić is in sixth place (2.13), followed by Dritan Abazović (2.03)...

All politicians simultaneously recorded a significant number of low ratings when it comes to the share of the highest rating.

Vuksanović explained at the press conference that in the allocation of the highest score, CEDEM is engaged in a type of comparison in relation to last year's measurement.

"We see that we have comparative data, and on the other hand, the percentage difference is also shown, so we can see who's rating increased or decreased. Milo Đukanović's rating increased by about 2,2 percent, Milan Knežević's decreased by 3,6 percent, Danijel Živković's decreased by 1,2 percent, Milojko Spajić's decreased by 7,1 percent, Jakov Milatović's decreased by 9 percent, Aleksa Bečić's decreased by 2 percent, and Dritan's decreased by 1,0 percent," said Vuksanović.

When it comes to trust in institutions, growth is recorded in the education system (from 55,2 to 63,9 percent), the healthcare system (from 50,8 to 54 percent) and the military (from 42,7 to 44,5 percent).

On the other hand, a decline in trust was recorded in the Serbian Orthodox Church (from 51,3 to 47,9 percent), the police (from 53,5 percent to 44,1 percent), the president (from 45,3 to 40,3 percent), the government (from 41,8 to 39,6 percent), the parliament (from 40,1 to 39 percent), the judiciary (from 42,7 to 37,4 percent), and the prosecutor's office (from 42,5 to 35,5 percent).

About half of respondents are concerned about party recruitment.

When asked how they would assess the situation today compared to when the DPS was in power, 24,1 percent said that it is "more or less the same today as when the DPS was in power," while 22,1 percent believe that it is a little better today, and 18,9 percent that it is significantly better. 15,3 percent of respondents believe that it is significantly worse, and 10,5 percent that it is slightly worse, while 9,1 percent cannot assess.

The number of those who support the government reshuffle has increased slightly from 34,1 to 35,9 percent, and the number of those who oppose it has increased from 21,9 to 27,2 percent. Between the two surveys, a major government reshuffle took place, during which representatives of the ZBCG and BS coalitions received ministerial positions.

In this survey, too, more respondents believe that early elections are not needed (38.3 percent) than that they are (35,4 percent). However, the negative response tends to decrease (from 39,3 percent), and the positive response tends to increase (from 32,1 percent).

Perović: The fate of the Government will also depend on the results on the economic front

Perović emphasized that the fact that the fight for a better standard of living and jobs is the most important issue for as many as three-quarters of citizens (75,2 percent) should be the most significant indicator. He confirmed that existential issues are dominant and that the government's continued survival and rating will directly depend on its ability to improve the economic situation.

"Namely, the research reflects the rather fragile stability of the current political situation, where the Government is under pressure, and its "fate" will largely depend on its ability to deliver results on the economic front, while traditional political divisions are deepening again, as shown by the latest election results in Nikšić," Perović assessed.

Bogdanović accused CEDEM of working for DPS.

The head of the Democratic MP caucus, Boris Bogdanović, told "Vijesti" that they are "generally skeptical of various research, timings, intentions, motives, especially the NGO that has repeatedly publicly attacked the Democrats, that is, precisely those who should now be 'impartially' measuring them:

"But even by their numbers, the Democrats have at least seven seats, as many as we currently have in parliament, which speaks volumes about the strength of support that does not depend on commissioned and covert political projects." He said that the timing of the announcement, as well as "a series of obvious illogicalities," further confirm the suspicion that the investigation was timed with the intention of diverting public attention from key prosecutorial processes that affect precisely those who have been undermining the state from within for decades.

"When the truth approaches their door, they always try to change the subject, with their people from socio-political life, but this time they won't succeed," said Bogdanović.

He said that this research was promoted to a lesser extent by the DPS in the Parliament of Montenegro before CEDEM.

"Finally, "independent" research is being done by those who have long since sided with the DPS. That only happens in Montenegro. The goal and intention are clear, everything is very simple, so let the citizens judge," said Bogdanović.