Although an internal investigation was launched within the European People's Party (EPP) a month ago into the activities of the Serbian Progressive Party of the current president of that country, Aleksandar Vučić Due to events in Serbia, none of the members, including the Montenegrin Bosniak Party (BS), is expressing a position on the issue.
This follows from the response of the MP from that party. Edine Dešić, but also comments from the editor-in-chief of the “European Western Balkans” portal Nemanje Todorovic Stiplije.
The EPP announced on September 25 that it had launched an internal investigation into the activities of the SNS, which has had associate member status in the conservative European party since 2016. The task has been entrusted to the EPP Secretary General Dolores Montserrat, former Minister of Health of Spain, now a Member of the European Parliament (EP), as well as Vice-President Kostisu Hadjidakisu, the current Deputy Prime Minister of Greece.
Also, on this occasion, the president of the SNS met with the EPP leaders. Milos Vucevic and the international secretary of that party Ana Brnabic, and according to unofficial information from N1, that conversation "did not go well", but "few people at this point expect that the SNS will actually be punished".
On Wednesday, the European Parliament (EP) adopted a resolution on "Polarization and increased repression in Serbia, one year after the Novi Sad tragedy", which, among other things, emphasizes that even a year after the tragedy in Novi Sad, the investigation has not been completed, but also that the EP supports the right of Serbian students and citizens to peaceful protests, which call for accountability and democratic reforms, directly linked to the rule of law that the EU expects from Serbia, and that the Serbian authorities have resorted to violence against political opponents and the use of excessive force against demonstrators across the country.
Protests in Serbia began after a canopy collapsed at the Novi Sad Railway Station on November 1 last year, killing 16 people, and are still ongoing...
BS will talk about it when the time comes.
Dešić points out that BS will take a position on this when it is their turn.
"We are in regular and intensive contact with our friends from the EPP on this and all other issues. If and when the issue of the SNS's status in the EPP is officially raised within the EPP bodies, we as a party will certainly take a very clear position on this," Dešić told "Vijesti".
She also adds that they have taken note of the resolution adopted by the EP.
"In this context, we provide strong support to all democratic processes in Serbia and strongly oppose any kind of repression and undemocratic attitude towards the right to peaceful protest, freedom of expression and freedom of the media," she told the newspaper.
Procedure hidden from the public
Todorović Štiplija estimates that the EPP decided to keep the investigation itself internal.
"It is obvious that the EPP has decided to conduct this process away from the public eye; the EPP itself is not commenting on the investigation, while the member parties are only publishing brief, almost bureaucratic statements, without any reference to the essence of the proceedings," he explains.
The newspaper's interlocutor points out that, according to his knowledge, the process includes not only talks with the SNS itself, but also hearings of other EPP members, especially those who have been pointing out the problematic behavior of the ruling party in Serbia for a long time.
"The process, apparently, also includes parties from the Western Balkans region, as well as representatives of civil society, academia and the media from Serbia. Some of these meetings, as far as I know, have already been held," he told Vijesti.
He explains that, from the Western Balkans, in addition to the Croatian Democratic Union of Croatia, which is a full member of the EPP, there are also affiliated parties - the Party of Democratic Action, the Party of Democratic Progress and the Croatian Democratic Union from Bosnia and Herzegovina, BS from Montenegro, VMRO-DPMNE from North Macedonia, which also had similar problems until 2018, the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK), the Democratic Party from Albania, as well as the Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians from Serbia, known for its "exceptional closeness to Fidesz". Viktor Orban” (ruling party in Hungary).
"The Croatian HDZ, although skeptical when the SNS was admitted to the EPP, remained alone in its stance at that time. The German Christian Democratic Union (CDU) resolutely pushed the SNS's membership process, presenting it as a 'modern, democratic and pro-European' party, which at that moment seemed to many to be a useful fiction in the service of regional stability," he recalls.
As he adds, today there is visible caution in the EPP towards new parties from Serbia seeking membership.
"However, there is interest in two parties that have already established contacts and participated in certain initiatives and working bodies of the EPP - SRCE." Zdravka Ponoša and the People's Movement of Serbia Mikija Aleksić"Both parties, supported by EPP members who would like to see the end of the SNS in their ranks, are slowly positioning themselves as potential successors to the European center-right in Serbia," explains Todorović Štiplija.
Without a unified position
The "Vijesti" interlocutor points out that the EPP is divided on the issue of the SNS.
"The situation is truly complex and uncertain. At this moment, within the EPP there are those who would prefer to see the end of cooperation with the SNS and Aleksandar Vučić, but also those who would like to avoid it - not because of sympathy for Vučić, but because of the fear that his possible expulsion would produce political radicalization similar to that of Viktor Orban after Fidesz left the EPP," Todorović Štiplija assesses, adding that, unlike Orban, Vučić cannot block the functioning of EU institutions, but he can do what is "still considered one of the most successful policies of the Union in Brussels - the enlargement and stability of the Western Balkans."
He notes that the problem is not new, and has been going on since at least 2018.
"So far, it has been mostly swept under the rug, both by some influential party members and by the EPP leadership itself. The legitimacy that the SNS drew from formal membership in the EPP, especially during the period when Vučić had excellent relations with the then German Chancellor Angela Merkel", served as a political shield for complete control of institutions and media in Serbia. At that time, Germany, for the sake of regional stability and dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, tolerated an authoritarian turn in Serbia, which, as expected, came back like a boomerang," he explains.
Expulsion would push Vučić into Orban's embrace
Speaking about possible expulsion, Todorović Štiplija points out that SNS voters are not thinking too much about membership in the EPP, but that it would represent a serious blow for Vučić.
“His carefully constructed image of himself as a ‘European leader’ and a ‘desirable interlocutor’ of Western partners would begin to crumble. In this sense, the entire propaganda machinery of the SNS has been serving precisely to maintain this illusion for years. The EPP, for its part, saw the SNS as a useful partner for achieving its goals in the Balkans.
"But if that balance is no longer possible, it is quite likely that Vučić will go the way of Orban, towards sharp animosity towards Brussels and rhetoric that would further aggravate the situation in the region," he believes.
According to him, if he were to be expelled, Vučić would probably follow in Orban's footsteps.
"His natural political refuge would then be the parties of the European populist right gathered in the group 'Patriots for Europe' - the successors of the former Movement for a Europe of Nations and Freedom. His ideological allies - Fidesz, National Rally, Freedom Party of Austria and the like - are already gathered there," assesses the interlocutor of "Vijesti".
As he adds, this group is the third largest in the EP, but is "essentially isolated from all key decision-making processes in the EU."
"Which, ironically, would be a completely appropriate company for Aleksandar Vučić," says Todorović Štiplija.
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