As so many times throughout history, this time in Zabjelo, Montenegrins, Serbs and Turks once again found themselves in a Balkan quagmire. The situation is neither new nor unexpected, but the cause and consequences this time are much more serious so that the question: did Serbia - read Aleksandar Vučić - participate, directly or indirectly, in all that is somewhat euphemistically called here "anti-Turkish protests" - would remain unanswered or at least an attempt to figure out what is happening in the Montenegro - Serbia - Turkey triangle.
Without wasting time, he threw the controversy Ivan Vujović, president of the Social Democratic Party (SDP).
"Vucic is burning in Serbia, so he desperately needs a little chaos in Montenegro," the leader of this extra-parliamentary party wrote on the Iks website, explaining that it is "always easier for the Serbian president to deal with others through Montenegro," whether it was with Croatia, over the Jasenovac Resolution, and now with Turkey "after the announcement of the delivery of drones to Kosovo."
The same night, the head of the Islamic Community in Montenegro Rifat Fejzic, also on the X network, publicly asked "is Belgrade punishing Turkey through Montenegro?", and published a screenshot of the text with the title: "Vučić attacked Turkey: We know what you are planning...".
Both Vujović and Fejzić were bombarded with a flood of comments, even threats, so much so that the Higher State Prosecutor's Office in Podgorica opened a case after the Islamic Community reported to the police that Fejzić had received "numerous life threats, insults and hate messages" via social media.
Vujović, but also the writer Andrei Nikolaidis, who stated that "the troubles with the Turks have Vučić's signature", Vučić responded quickly, in his recognizable style.
"Nikolaidis is an errand boy for (the former president of Montenegro)" Mila Đukanović "was and remains, and so does Vujović. And I have no problem with that, they have to generate their own new agenda somewhere, they don't know what to offer, and what else they would offer except hatred towards everything Serbian, and especially towards the one who is to blame for everything, and that is always Vučić," said the President of Serbia.
For Ivan Vujović, everything is crystal clear, because "the fact that Vučić denied it, especially in the way he denied it, is just more confirmation that he and his BIA (Security Information Agency) are involved in the events in Montenegro."
"We know how things work in Vučić's media and Serbian 'world'. Media and intelligence laboratories, or poison labs, draw a target - in this case, it was Turkey - and then his political vassals continue and fuel the story," explains Vujović.
They are Ivan Vuković, vice president of the opposition Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), there are not many unknowns in this story.
"'I am horrified by Turkey's behavior, it dreams of reviving the Ottoman Empire' - this is how, a little less than a month ago, Serbian President Vučić commented on the delivery of Turkish-made drones to Kosovo. At that moment, anyone following political developments in Montenegro had to be aware that it was only a matter of time before what we witnessed in Podgorica in the previous days would happen. For weeks before the incident in Zabjelo, political structures and media under the control of official Belgrade spread disinformation and raised tensions with the aim of targeting the Turkish community in our country. From the fabricated story of the kidnapping of a child in a Podgorica shopping mall, to the claims that over 110.000 Turks reside in Montenegro and, supported by the authorities in Ankara, are trying to change its ethnic structure in the long term - Vučić's domestic staff enthusiastically responded to his political gesture", Vuković points out.
Bosko Jaksic, a journalist from Belgrade, is, however, one gets the impression that he is a little more cautious.
"I doubt that Belgrade is directly responsible for the "fuck the Turks" campaign led by the "people's patrols." Which does not mean that Serbia, still angry with Ankara for selling drones to Pristina, would not like to capitalize on it politically.
“'Innocent Turks' shops are being burned down,' reads the headline of the pro-regime tabloid 'Informer', suggesting that at this moment, Ankara is closer to Belgrade than Podgorica. Let us recall that (the leader of the Movement for Change) Nebojsa Medojevic "in September, he said that if the Bosniak Party represents the interests of Turkey, and not the interests of Bosniaks in Montenegro, this represents a serious threat to the national interests of Montenegro, which as a state was founded on the foundations of Christian civilization. The liturgical handwriting of the Serbian Orthodox Church (SPC) is recognizable," explains Jakšić.
He, however, draws attention to another aspect of recent events in Montenegro.
"Did Serbia and the Serbian Orthodox Church push the citizens of Montenegro to take revenge on the Turks for the defeat in Kosovo in 1389? The desire undoubtedly exists, but the angry public reaction to the attack was almost immediate. Technically, there was no time for people to be motivated to take revenge. The reaction was spontaneous, but also dangerous because it contained elements of a lynching. The police had to prevent the destruction of shops owned by Turks who had nothing to do with the incident, and not resort to mass arrests of Turks who were later released. The authorities allowed the scenes of violence to resemble a showdown with horse thieves in the Wild West," adds Jakšić.
Brano Mandic, editor of the portal Normalizuj.me, believes that Montenegrin society seems doomed, tense, “as if it is in a pre-infarction state that has lasted too long.” Mandić sees the sources of hatred and xenophobia in tribal consciousness, in family pathology and infected tradition, so people “find themselves in nationalism, which allows disturbed characters to settle down in politics.”
"Everything we saw does not resemble a civil protest, but rather a political militia on patrol, so it seems to me that the matter is not as spontaneous as it is being portrayed. Who initiated the matter is ultimately irrelevant, but it is clear who is held accountable and who manages crises of this kind. Vučić's government does not even have to provoke incidents, his Montenegrin "service" can act somewhat independently and nominate crises, which are taken or rejected by Belgrade. The crisis is the political material with which Vučić works, and that is why he chooses political destroyers ready for anything as agents and foreign collaborators. He found them in Montenegro a long time ago," said Mandić.
No less important issue than Belgrade's involvement in the latest events are the possible consequences for relations in the Montenegro - Turkey - Serbia triangle.
"There will be no Bermuda Triangle in the Balkans. Everything will continue on bilateral tracks: Ankara - Podgorica, Belgrade - Podgorica and Belgrade - Ankara. After the delivery of drones to Kosovo, Serbia harshly criticized Turkey for its policy of 'neo-Ottomanism'", but President Vučić quickly retorted and lowered the tension. I predict that this will happen on the Montenegro - Turkey relationship. The incident in the Zabjelo settlement will certainly not affect the relations between Serbia and Montenegro, which have been burdened by latent tensions for years", believes Boško Jakšić.
He, however, warns that a bar brawl must not be allowed to determine the direction of foreign policy and cooperation between the two NATO member countries, and believes that Ankara will not forget the Podgorica cries of "Turks out" and "Turks will not walk around the city", and that the slogan "We will not accept migrants" will be recorded in the EU dossier on Montenegro's accession to the Union.
Ivan Vuković fears that Montenegro and numerous citizens could soon face the negative consequences of "the Government's ill-considered decision and the national-chauvinist statements of a number of representatives of the ruling coalition."
"Even if we ignore the fact that Turkey is one of the most politically influential countries on the global stage, our ally within NATO and, during this year, the first in terms of the inflow of foreign direct investments into Montenegro, the question arises as to what will happen to thousands of Montenegrin citizens, patients, students and business people, if Ankara decides to take reciprocal measures. I am not sure that any of the members of the Government and officials of the ruling parties who, in the previous days, in an attempt to score some cheap political point or, on the other hand, 'prove themselves' before the political boss from Belgrade, have thought about this," the vice president of the strongest opposition party is convinced.
Ivan Vujović, as far as the internal consequences or context are concerned, is certain that this was "at the same time a demonstration exercise by the ultra-right Greater Serbia structures of what could happen if the prime minister falls." Milojko Spajić thought of making some kind of deviation from the duke (the president of the Assembly Andrew) Mandica".
"We are already seeing consequences in the deterioration of relations with Turkey and we are already seeing announcements of reciprocal measures from that country. It is clear that we are causing great damage to tourism and the economy. Not to mention the damage to the country's image that such important decisions are being made at the behest of a mass that is emitting hatred and seeking scolding. The image of dozens of people lined up and facing the wall is an image of the pathology of the people who govern this country," the SDP president emphasizes.
And finally, one statement by Brano Mandić that, it seems, may be more important than the potential (in)direct responsibility for the anti-Turkish protests in Montenegro.
"People in Montenegro feel less safe these days. The fear of foreigners is spilling over into all of us. Some don't feel it yet, some don't want to admit it, but Montenegrin society lacks an immune system of institutions and a political framework that would prevent violence that can be organized overnight," warns the editor of the portal Normalizuj.me.
Where do the cries against Vučić come from?
At last week's protest in front of the Government of Montenegro, abusive shouts were heard against Aleksandar Vučić, which for some was proof that Serbia had nothing to do with the events following the incident in Zabjelo.
"Unlike the orchestrated 'cheer' against the Turks in Montenegro, the shouts you mention were sporadic and, I assume, represent an echo of what can be heard at sporting events in Serbia recently. In a political sense, when it comes to the event in front of the Government building, I do not think that special significance should be attached to it," is the position of Ivan Vuković.
Ivan Vujović, on the other hand, says that at first it seemed to him like "a transparent attempt to camouflage his (Vučić's) role."
"I allow, on the other hand, that it is possible that some of the people at the rally were sincerely chanting that. Of course, I do not think that every participant in that rally was enthusiastic about Vučić. People were driven by their mistaken, but sincere xenophobic beliefs, and it is clear that they were also part of the play orchestrated by the entire system, headed by Vučić," Vujović believes.
Vučić and the "Ottoman Empire"
On October 8, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić announced that he was "disgusted" by Turkey, as Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti put it, delivering thousands of Turkish "Skydagger suicide drones" to Pristina airport.
Vučić then wrote on the X platform that he was "disgusted by Turkey's behavior and brutal violation of the UN Charter and UN Security Council Resolution 1244, as well as the continued arming of the authorities in Pristina."
"It is now completely clear that Turkey does not want stability in the Western Balkans and that it dreams of restoring the Ottoman Empire again," Vučić said, adding that "Serbia is a small country, but we understand their true intentions."
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